That said, after all this time I really haven't gone about tracking pitcher progression.
This struck me when (I think it was Alan) said something that basically boils down to "if you pitch, you get higher. I don't think this is true at all. I mean, it's is certainly true at the very beginning of a pitcher's career, and it's true when a pitcher moved from the pen to the rotation. But I've always felt that the deal was that James's Game Score is about sustained performance, and that pitchers--after climbing through the ranks--find their slots after a time. At that point, they go up and down based on that slot and the movement of other pitchers around them.
Being interested, I picked through the data for my rookie pitcher, Paul Worboys.
Let's take a look at Worboys.
He made his debut start on April 16th, a five-inning outing at Long Beach in which he took his first loss. He registered a Game Score of 42, FWIW, which is not great. (50 is basically average). That outing "earned" him 3 points, raising his Ranking Score from the 300 minimum up to 303. So, yes, he pitched, he got better.
He made his final start of the season on September 14, also in Long Beach, but this time throwing 5.2 innings of scoreless ball that was good for a Game Score of 58. That moved him up from 411 points to 416, and left him ranked at #114.in the world...or basically your #4 kind of starter.
So what does that mean?
Are those 416 points a waypoint on the path up? Is Worboys on a path that means he's going to be in the top 20 come next year, or is that number actually reflective of where his performance really is relative to the world around him (Because I'm thinking about it, I note here that the GS system does have a ballpark component to it, so pitchers GS get adjusted up or down to reflect park factors as defined by the average # runs scored in its past 100 games).
Well...let's look at the Ranking Points Worboys has carried over the season.
Here's the data:
FIRST TWO MONTHS It is correct that for Paul Worboys' first 17 starts, every time he pitched his score went up. The system is set up such that when your Ranking Score is Very Low, merely pitching is almost guaranteed to increase your score. Even Worboys' crappy "38" (4 runs on 5 innings in a game Bikini won against Chicago) raised his score a few fractions. So, yes, simply being in the rotation will lift a pitcher's score, and if that pitcher stays in the rotation long enough, they will eventually get into the top 160, which, with 32 teams and five pitchers each team, is a demarcation for the lowest Game Score Ranking Point Line you can be and still have a chance at a job.
Note that Des Moines' Alonso Amaya is currently sitting in the #160 Ranking, and he has 368 points. He started 21 games this year, but has been in the bullpen for a month and a half. If we do an estimate and say that 370 points is a rough rule of thumb to cross that 160 ranking, then Worboys hit that level in mid-June, meaning he had to be part of a rotation for about two months before the "World's Best"' ranking system acknowledged him. As an aside, on June 9, when Worboys hit 367 points, his Rank was #136. So that baseline changes.
All that said, Worboys did rise up fairly quickly, but he was also pretty effective during that period, as reflected in mostly solid Game Scores.
NEXT TWO MONTHS Worboys pitched well through the end of June, then struggled in the first part of July, including posting a horrible 17 GS in which he allowed Yellow Springs 7 runs in eight innings on July 16th. That outing cost him 7 ranking points, showing that yes, indeed, you can pitch poorly enough to go backward.
The end of July saw him recover, and crest 400 ranking points. Things looked like they were back on track.
And yet, he has not continued to grow at the same level as before.
REACHING EQUILIBRIUM From the first of August until Worboys was shut down in late September, his ranking score has essentially stabilized at an average of about 408 Ranking points. He had three outings that cost him points, and several others that moved him up. As noted, he currently sits at #114 in the world, which at present would make him a #4 pitcher if talent/performance were equally distributed..
SUMMARY
This was pretty fun. It makes we want to write a new script that would capture individual pitcher's movement through this metric through their career. It's like to know, for example, how the scores shift over time. Where the equilibrium points are. Is it true that two months is a good figure for how long a starter has to stay in a lineup before they make it to the magic 160 demarcation line? Knowing these things probably doesn't make any difference at all, but it's fun to follow, and the game of baseball is full of things that are just fun to follow.
But the bottom line is that Worboys seems to show that the James method is not simply "pitch more, score more." This should be obvious, I suppose, simply from looking at the lists. But, of course, Worboys stat line isn't enough to say anything definitive. And I certainly hope Worboys is still on an upward path. If he could have cut those three bad starts in August, he'd be looking better now, wouldn't he?
Yes, I think, it would be fun to track every pitcher overtime.
As if there isn't anything else to do.