Well, it looks like it is starting to sort out. Below, I have posted the scouts 20-80 scale that is routinely used by scouts. As you can see a 50 overall hitter is obviously “average” and should accumulate 2.0 WAR. While we don’t use relative ratings, which does screw this up a little bit, I am happy to say that it does appear that we are on the right track based on the data below. Also keep in mind, most of these draft classes are currently 14-18 years old, so by the time most debut in the BBA, those pesky veterans from the mega drafts will likely be at Shady Pines.
Also, I want to point out a bit of statistical dominance in the real life MLB draft, starting with the round the player is selected in and what percentage typically make it to the major leagues based on that. This doesn’t mean they were all-stars, it doesn’t mean they were every day players. It just means they simply had an at bat or tossed a pitch in the major leagues.
I did poke around, and I was not able to locate any statistical database that lists how many perennial all-stars are typically taken in one draft class, although my gut tells me it is typically less than 3, which in my head says we are heading right where we need to be.
As shown, in 2055, we have a class of 568 players. 2 of those are potential all-stars, one is an above average player. We have 9 average regular players, and 43 platoon/utility type guys who should generate around 1.5 WAR if used correctly.
281 of the 568 are of the “organizational” type which is roughly half. This would mean that half of these guys would generate a positive WAR value or a 0 WAR level in an average environment.
In 2056, we have a smaller class (only 33% smaller) and we have 1 above average player(2.5 WAR), and 61 average type players. 222 of the 391 are organizational fillers.
In 2057, we have a potential top 5 hitter with a 70 potential, along with 38 draftees that are rated 45 of higher. This class is even smaller than the last one with only 356 players. This class has a potential for 4 all-star quality players rated 60 or higher in potential.
Last, in 2058, we see our lone 75 rated player. A guy who could be a top 2-3 hitter in the league and accumulate 6 WAR or higher annually. To go with him, we have 5 others who are rated above average or higher, and 36 average type players.
In these 3 classes, there are 58 players who are 50 rated or better. That almost gives two full rounds of the BBA draft that have players who are potential starting quality players. That’s without mentioning the additional 118 guys who are rated 45 potential and have a chance to still gather 1-1.5 WAR per season. This gives us essentially an average of almost 6 rounds of players in the draft that fall under one of those two categories.
Of course, this doesn’t take into effect those who lump or bump, but it gives an idea that we are moving towards the correct spot and in 3-5 years when some of these players are mature and ready to go, they likely will be surrounded by similar type players.
As shown in the final image below, the average age of a player who is rated 70 or higher in the BBA is currently 31 years old. In 5 years, these players will likely have regressed down as they age or in some cases retired.
