Who’s draft picks have made the biggest difference over the past 10 years? Who was the best player taken in the later ro

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Who’s draft picks have made the biggest difference over the past 10 years? Who was the best player taken in the later ro

Post by niles08 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:42 pm

EDIT: I have Chicago incorrectly mentioned as an expansion team throughout this. I am making a few edits to remove that. Also please note that the WAR totals are totals from both the BBA and UMEBA since they don't separate and are both viewed as "MLB" level.

I’ve kind of wondered the questions that are in this topic header for a bit now but I didn’t realize they would be so easily found thanks to Statsplus. I am going to do this ass backwards and put the conclusion I have drawn first....and then dig into the data.
In conclusion:

I really can't say who drafts the best or worst because of the many variables involved however I put all this together and don't want to just waste it.

I know I draft poorly and I am sure each GM thinks of themselves differently. If I had to pick one guy that really jumped out to me though, I'd say that Seattle has done a good job selecting talent and rarely wasting a first round selection with Andrew Izatt being the rare exception. I am sure that can be said for many teams, but maybe most impressive to me is that Seattle has been picking in the middle of the round and rarely picked first.

I think it's also worth pointing out that the tail end of these years were just 5 years ago. Some of these players are either just getting to the BBA or have just gotten there long enough to make a small impact. However, since the years were the same for each team in analyzing this, the ability to draft WAR should be the same unless you had a team which finished on top and drafted late each and every year which I think Rockville has still proven it's possible to draft late and still have an impact.
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Anyways, we’re going to break this down into a few sections and a few images, and I’ll include links as well for those who really want to dive into their own teams or draft history.

From 2030 to 2040, rounds 1-25(entire draft), which teams have drafted players that have gone on to create the highest WAR?

https://statspl.us/brewster/draftsummar ... &endrd=25

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The first team likely isn’t going to surprise you. With a total of 326.6 WAR from the 2030-2040 draft classes, the Rockville Pikeman have over 50 more WAR than the next highest team from these players selected. Notable 1st round picks, Lorenzo Palacios (10th), Francisco Flores(6th), and Chip Puckett(4th) combine for 117 WAR. Rockville has been heavy on batters though, with 242 of the 326 coming from the plate and only 84.5 coming from the mound, likely by design.

In second, Edmonton, who has a total of 271.6 WAR, 201 of which comes from the plate. Notable hitters include first round picks Steven Collins(1st) and Mitch Dalrymple(4th).

In third, Yellow Springs Nine with 259 WAR, but a bit more even with 157 coming from the plate and 101.9 coming from the mound thanks to Carlos Valle’s 47 WAR alone. It’s worth noting that Valle was a 4th round pick in the 2031 draft, selected 123 overall. Aaron Stone is the leading WAR draftee for the Nine, accumulating 39.50 WAR. It’s also worth noting he was a later pick, being selected in the 8th round, 239th overall.

It’s tough to do the bottom based on expansion teams, but let’s grab a few teams that weren’t expansion teams.

New Orleans comes in with 57 total WAR in the 12 classes, with Juan Donestevez having 10 of that, and Mitsuo Tenno to thank for another 17 on the mound. It’s worth noting that Tenno was a 10th round selection and is the clubs top draftee over these 12 seasons.

Des Moines and Long Beach are basically neck and neck for 2nd and 3rd lowest with 113 and 114 WAR. Des Moines has had more luck on the mound with 76 of that 113 coming from arms thanks in part to Stephen Taub(15th), Don Smith(4th), and Ragnar Lothbrok(12th), all first round selections. At the plate, they have had 30 players account for just 37.2 WAR with John Hale accounting for 11.50 of that.

Long Beach has 114 total WAR as mentioned and are nearly the exact opposite of Des Moines. Long Beach has 90 of that coming from the plate and just 25 coming from the mound. Felipe Vega(3rd), and Sloan Daniel(25th) are just two of the names to thank for that although several players are in the 4-8 range for career WAR. On the mound, Long Beach has had the mentioned 25 WAR come from 35 different draft selections, but 18 of that alone has come from second round selections Luis Rojas(18th), and Ernesto Delgado(16th).

___________________________________________________________________________________

So who has had the lowest number of players drafted play in at least one BBA game from these 12 classes, and who has had the most?

Not counting the recent expansion teams, Seattle has had the lowest with just 43 players drafted participate in a BBA game. Despite being just 43 total players, Seattle ranks 6th in total WAR for those players as they are just one of 7 teams with a total WAR of over 200.

Yellow Springs Nine has had the most, with 64 players in the BBA. As mentioned they were ranked 3rd in total WAR.

As for breaking it down by position players vs pitchers, Seattle has had the least amount of pitchers with just 12 drafted players make the BBA(despite having the 7th highest pitching WAR), while Long Beach has had the most(despite the second lowest pitcher WAR).

As for batters, Jacksonville has had 41, while their batting WAR of 87 falls into the bottom 10. Boise, who is not being considered for expansion purposes actually has had 14 batters, and have 82 WAR. The least batters for a non-expansion team is New Orleans, with just 21 and a batter war of 21.4, both last in the league.

__________________________________________________________________________________

So, now who drafts the gems? We’re talking rounds 15 and later. From 2030-2040, which team has had a nose for picking out the prospects who have runny noses and zits?

Image

Chicago is actually first in both the total count of players with 8 and WAR of 25.1 thanks to Raul Hernandez and his 19.30 total career WAR. If your looking for the next non-expansion team, several teams have 6 guys who have participated but it’s actually Jacksonville with 23.2 WAR and only 4 guys that is below Chicago. Jacksonville can thank Manuel Martinez for this as the 21st round pick and 595th overall selection has accumulated 22.00 WAR for his career, all BBA level, and the most by a player taking in round 15 or later from 2030-2040.
_______________________________________________________________________________

So, one final question, since 1995, who has been the best player ever taken in rounds 20-25?

You’d have to point towards Steve Faulkner, who accumulated 44.5 WAR after being selected in the 1995 draft by the Omaha Cyclones(or whatever the hell they were named back then).


Let’s run it more modern day and say from 2020 to 2040. Now, we run into a pitcher for Louisville named Kevin Morales. Drafted in the 2029 draft and in the 25th round, Morales went on to hav a 40.60 career WAR appearing in 358 games and pitching 2,206 innings. Nowadays you’ll fine Morales pitching for the Portland Lumberjacks at age 32.
Last edited by niles08 on Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:07 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Who’s draft picks have made the biggest difference over the past 10 years? Who was the best player taken in the late

Post by bcslouck » Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:53 pm

niles08 wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:42 pm
Chicago, who is an expansion team
No. They were Huntsville. Last expansion was Portland and Charlotte. Before that was Wichita and.. Boise?
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Re: Who’s draft picks have made the biggest difference over the past 10 years? Who was the best player taken in the late

Post by bcslouck » Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:56 pm

Really good analysis though. No surprise at the top. Teams with multiple Landis' and perennial contenders for the most part.

Also.. did the page separate UMEBA and BBA? That Chicago number looks driven by UMEBA stats.
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Re: Who’s draft picks have made the biggest difference over the past 10 years? Who was the best player taken in the late

Post by bigmike13 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:58 pm

Good job
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Re: Who’s draft picks have made the biggest difference over the past 10 years? Who was the best player taken in the late

Post by Lane » Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:01 pm

safe to say long beach sucks when it comes to the draft
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Re: Who’s draft picks have made the biggest difference over the past 10 years? Who was the best player taken in the late

Post by niles08 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:02 pm

bcslouck wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:56 pm
Really good analysis though. No surprise at the top. Teams with multiple Landis' and perennial contenders for the most part.

Also.. did the page separate UMEBA and BBA? That Chicago number looks driven by UMEBA stats.
Oh yea I forgot Chicago was Huntsville lol...well that might change things a little but not top to bottom.

It didn't let me separate UMEBA from BBA. If they were drafted in the BBA and appeared in a game, I guess it accumulates their WAR total even though I just choose BBA teams to be listed and not UMEBA because of course Hernandez only has 3 WAR in the BBA and 16 in the UMEBA. That's great I guess.
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Re: Who’s draft picks have made the biggest difference over the past 10 years? Who was the best player taken in the late

Post by bcslouck » Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:04 pm

Yeah I think that's the case. Kind of sucks. I think it's because UMEBA is a major league now.
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Re: Who’s draft picks have made the biggest difference over the past 10 years? Who was the best player taken in the late

Post by jleddy » Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:07 pm

niles08 wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:42 pm
So, one final question, since 1995, who has been the best player ever taken in rounds 20-25?

You’d have to point towards Steve Faulkner, who accumulated 44.5 WAR after being selected in the 1995 draft by the Omaha Cyclones(or whatever the hell they were named back then).


Let’s run it more modern day and say from 2020 to 2040. Now, we run into a pitcher for Louisville named Kevin Morales. Drafted in the 2029 draft and in the 25th round, Morales went on to hav a 40.60 career WAR appearing in 358 games and pitching 2,206 innings. Nowadays you’ll fine Morales pitching for the Portland Lumberjacks at age 32.
That would make an interesting feature...
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Re: Who’s draft picks have made the biggest difference over the past 10 years? Who was the best player taken in the late

Post by niles08 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:09 pm

jleddy wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:07 pm
niles08 wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:42 pm
So, one final question, since 1995, who has been the best player ever taken in rounds 20-25?

You’d have to point towards Steve Faulkner, who accumulated 44.5 WAR after being selected in the 1995 draft by the Omaha Cyclones(or whatever the hell they were named back then).


Let’s run it more modern day and say from 2020 to 2040. Now, we run into a pitcher for Louisville named Kevin Morales. Drafted in the 2029 draft and in the 25th round, Morales went on to hav a 40.60 career WAR appearing in 358 games and pitching 2,206 innings. Nowadays you’ll fine Morales pitching for the Portland Lumberjacks at age 32.
That would make an interesting feature...
I remember this feature. I didn't do the greatest 7 picks though..I did the best pick taken in rounds 20-25 :)

On a side note, it's likely tomorrow or Wednesday, I do a top draft fails of the 2030's highlighting several top draft picks that simply didn't work out from 2030-2040.
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Re: Who’s draft picks have made the biggest difference over the past 10 years? Who was the best player taken in the late

Post by RonCo » Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:39 pm

I'm not sure there is such a thing as a good drafter.
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Re: Who’s draft picks have made the biggest difference over the past 10 years? Who was the best player taken in the late

Post by HoosierVic » Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:12 pm

Don't worry, Niles - Chicago plays like an expansion team.

My first draft wasn't until 2039, so the lion's share of those picks were by Kyle, my predecessor at Huntsville. And, yeah, he did pretty darn good ...

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Re: Who’s draft picks have made the biggest difference over the past 10 years? Who was the best player taken in the late

Post by usnspecialist » Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:45 pm

look at San Fernando being 2nd in pitcher WAR!! Only 5.7 of that from the UMEBA too (you can get a BBA vs UMEBA breakdown on each individual team page). Of course the only 3 guys in double digits for me never threw a pitch in the BBA for me (and I didn't draft the top 2 guys on this list as my first draft wasn't until 2032).

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Re: Who’s draft picks have made the biggest difference over the past 10 years? Who was the best player taken in the late

Post by aaronweiner » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:44 pm

RonCo wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:39 pm
I'm not sure there is such a thing as a good drafter.
I'm not either. I know personally I'm really good at maximizing my draft spot, but those players also have to develop, not get hurt, and be as good as I think they are when I get them. Sometimes they've been busts. Sometimes they've been better than I drafted them, and some of them are Danny Leach and Jim Armstrong.

What's striking to me about the ten-year lookback, though, is the fact that I've made the playoffs in all ten of those years, so I've done it drafting from the end of the first round. Pretty lucky.

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Re: Who’s draft picks have made the biggest difference over the past 10 years? Who was the best player taken in the late

Post by RonCo » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:55 pm

aaronweiner wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:44 pm
What's striking to me about the ten-year lookback, though, is the fact that I've made the playoffs in all ten of those years, so I've done it drafting from the end of the first round. Pretty lucky.
This is 2030-2040, so it still includes a few of your picks from 1-6 overall.
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Re: Who’s draft picks have made the biggest difference over the past 10 years? Who was the best player taken in the late

Post by RonCo » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:57 pm

Same for Edmonton and Madison. YS9 never selected higher than 22 during that period.
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Re: Who’s draft picks have made the biggest difference over the past 10 years? Who was the best player taken in the late

Post by RonCo » Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:04 pm

Interesting tool. I've done some tings with this, but never really spent any time with it. Thanks for posting it.

Here's an interesting cut based on the question of who has benefited the most during the big glut draft classes of 2036-2039.

https://statsplus.net/brewster/draftsum ... 1&endrd=25
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Re: Who’s draft picks have made the biggest difference over the past 10 years? Who was the best player taken in the late

Post by shoeless.db » Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:06 pm

RonCo wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:04 pm
Here's an interesting cut based on the question of who has benefited the most during the big glut draft classes of 2036-2039.

https://statsplus.net/brewster/draftsum ... 1&endrd=25
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Re: Who’s draft picks have made the biggest difference over the past 10 years? Who was the best player taken in the late

Post by RonCo » Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:11 pm

aaronweiner wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:44 pm
RonCo wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:39 pm
I'm not sure there is such a thing as a good drafter.
I'm not either. I know personally I'm really good at maximizing my draft spot, but those players also have to develop, not get hurt, and be as good as I think they are when I get them. Sometimes they've been busts. Sometimes they've been better than I drafted them, and some of them are Danny Leach and Jim Armstrong.

What's striking to me about the ten-year lookback, though, is the fact that I've made the playoffs in all ten of those years, so I've done it drafting from the end of the first round. Pretty lucky.
Yeah. There are probably "bad" drafters, though, so technically I guess everyone else is a "good" drafter? Ultimately it probably boils down to having a feel for what drives value in a player's skillset...which is always dangerous. I mean, if I'da known Aaron Stone was going to become Aaron Stone I'd have drafted him earlier. So part of it is using the development engine and setting yourself up to get lucky more often than you might otherwise?
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Re: Who’s draft picks have made the biggest difference over the past 10 years? Who was the best player taken in the late

Post by RonCo » Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:20 pm

aaronweiner wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:44 pm
What's striking to me about the ten-year lookback, though, is the fact that I've made the playoffs in all ten of those years, so I've done it drafting from the end of the first round. Pretty lucky.
To the bulk of your point, though, I think there is a lot of luck when it comes to finding big players outside the first ten picks. I mean, Daniel Pepper dropped to Rockville in 2039. We picked up Rex Foster ahead of you instead of Pepper because at the time, Pepper had a good looking bat but his glove didn't look like it would play well. It since has gone on to grow into something solid, which raises Pepper from a "good player" to a potentially elite one.

Still, we're very happy to have Rex Foster, even though he hasn't bumped at all, he'd be a Sawyer Silk guy if he could play against LHP. :)

To get guys like this in the 30-40 slots is a pretty good deal, and it's an example of why really good, really deep drafts are a competitive advantage (?) to established teams.
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Re: Who’s draft picks have made the biggest difference over the past 10 years? Who was the best player taken in the late

Post by CTBrewCrew » Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:16 am

Dang @RonCo you beat me up the punch - I have an interactive viz that shows top 10 historical war for all players league age 25 and under. Listening to you and @Ted talk about that on the podcast got my creative juices flowing. I’ll have mine posted up today (real life stuff family duties first).

This does overall - I’m focusing on 25 and under aged players - top 10 overall / top 10 by position / top 10 by position by team.

Keep being my muse fellas!

Be on the lookout for it later today
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