Welcome to The Thinking Cap, a reoccurring feature about the ins-and-outs of player contracts and teams' salary caps. My name's Mo Magee but you can call me "Money Bags". I have over twenty-five years of covering the financial comings-and-goings of several major sports leagues, including the Brewster Baseball Association. Welcome to my world.
WHAT'S THE WORD: Yellow Springs Nine sign SP Ernesto Ramos to a 6-year contract extension worth a total of $104,500,000. (Friday, July 11th, 2042)
BETWEEN THE CONTRACT LINES: While Ramos will average just over $17.4M per season, the deal is front-loaded, starting out at $20M in 2043 then slowly tapering down to $15M in 2048, the final year on the deal. You can go ahead and bump the AAV to nearly $19M per year over the course of the contract, as Ramos will almost certainly earn the annual $1.5M innings bonus every year, needing just to pitch just fifty each season to cash in and collect. There's a good chance the right-handed Cuban will also earn his $150k All-Star bonus at least two or three times over the course of the deal and Yellow Springs, one of the best, if not very best, financially-run teams in the League will gladly shell out half-a-million dollars any time Ramos pitches well enough to win a Nebraska Award.
MO'S MUSINGS: Ramos is one helluva pitcher. These days, he'd be the staff ace for a third of the teams in the League but on Yellow Springs, he's arguably their third best starter in a great rotation. Ramos has been solid over the last four seasons, with his 2040 breakout (20-7, 2.74 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9) suggesting there's another level he can reach. Ramos has landed on the injured list just twice in his career, both times due to a sprained ankle. Aside from a sprained elbow in 2035 that resulted in two weeks of rest and monitoring, Ramos has been a model of health, so there's significantly lower risk for the six-year extension to be disrupted by injuries of any kind. The lightly front-loaded contract makes a great deal of sense while players like Dong-po Thum and Carlos Pineda are still under reasonable cost-control. I love this extention and it makes a great deal of sense for all parties involved.
RAMIFICATIONS: There had been plenty of talk and speculation during this past off-season and in the first-half of this year whether or not Yellow Springs was either interested in extending Ramos, who was set to enter free agency at season's end, or whether or not Yellow Springs could even afford to pay up for Ramos' services beyond 2042. The former has been answered, however the latter is still in question. Thanks to a strong core of veterans, a farm system that continues to churn out cost-controll mega-talent, and recent prudent extensions to the likes of Lucas McNeill, Tiernan O'Macken and Ángel Hernández, the Nine look like a team set for the next four or five years. However they'll need to make several difficult financial decisions before 2044, if not this upcoming off-season. Considering arbitration estimates, the team looks to be near the cap limit of $110M next year and are well over the limit in 2044. Not only does this mean the team will have to look at shedding payroll, either via trade or not offering arbitration to some of its younger talent, but the team will have to make serious moves if they will to lock up franchise cornerstones like Thum and Pineda. And this isn't even taking into account the rumors that Yellow Springs had talks with Des Moines regarding a Don Smith trade. Smith's contract jumps up over $6M in arbitration estimates in 2043, and continues to rise the following two final arbitration-eligible seasons.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR:
- Colón cleansing - Team options are designed to offer the club protection against injury or declining performance. One potential member of the Nine who may face that fate is swingman Luis Colón. A talented, long-time member of Yellow Springs' pitching staff, the once full-time starter has seen his starts decline as he's pitched with greater frequency out of the bullpen. This year he's on pace to start the fewest games of his Yellow Springs career and is in the midst of a two-year decline in production. It's almost guaranteed Colón's $4.2M team option for 2043 will not be picked up by the Nine front office if shedding payroll is a priority, ultimately costing them just $850k for a buy-out.
- Just say 'No' - Declining arbitration is a quick and easy way to shed payroll, however it's often at the cost of losing talent as well. If news out of Yellow Springs is to believed, the club and their starting centerfielder Abdeljilill Sediki are far apart in coming to an agreement to avoid arbitration this upcoming off-season. Sediki is set to see a raise from $1.9M to an estimated figure in the neighborhood of $6M, a tidy sum that could provide the Nine with quite a bit of financial breathing room if not offered. The problem is Sediki is having a fine season, although his struggles in June and into July could be justification for the front office to let him walk at the conclusion of this season. Should Sediki go, the next man in line for the centerfield job would likely be 21-year-old Arvin Duggan. It's no surprise that while extension talks with Sediki have stalled, Duggan was promoted to Triple-A Indianapolis in the same week. The writing is on the wall that Duggan will be pressed into the starting line-up as the club's centerfielder next year, making Sediki a free agent and saving Yellow Springs over $5M in salary cap relief.
- Sans Luis - It's possible that the first two scenarios are avoided all together if by chance Luis Costello, the short-side platoon in left field, declines his upcoming player option. In part-time duty, Costello has been solid the last two years and the toolsy outfielder they call "Love Machine" can opt of the remaining two years of his contract this off-season. Costello is currently earning $8.5M, a notable figure for an injury-prone corner outfielder who hasn't collected over 1.0 WAR in a season since 2040 as a member of the Hawaii Tropics. But he could test the market and bypass the at-least $11M guaranteed money owned to him in the next two years. Gut instinct says Yellow Springs would hate to see Costello go but would love to free up that money, especially with Bret Powers knocking on the door down in Triple-A and getting extra reps in left for what looks like an imminent replacement.
- Shuffle the deck - You can count on the fingers of one hand the number of general managers in the Brewster better than Yellow Springs' Ron Collins, so you know he's going to make it work in the end. Never afraid to swing a deal, Collins could open up salary cap room by including any of the aforementioned players, or he could pluck an additional trade piece or two from the roster. The Nine bullpen is deep and stout, currently ranking first in the Frick League with an ERA of just 3.56. Despite inking him to a four-year extension last spring, closer Curt Phillips could be moved to not only free up money, but bring back a useful cost-controlled or affordable piece to the club. At $7M per season, Phillips is not only costly when considering the potential money crunch the front office is facing and the cheap talent they can use to supplant the loss of him, but he's affordable enough to be moved to a different trade. It's an interesting duality that GM Collins is likely entertaining at the least, even with his fondness for the flame-throwing closer. One shrewd move the front office could put on the table would be flipping Ramos himself in the next year or so. Inked to price tag far fewer than what lesser pitchers get in the open market in the last few off-seasons, Ramos' value probably went up with the extension. A least likely, but still possible, trade candidate down the road is the team's #2 pitcher in the rotation, Carlos Pineda. With Ramos and staff ace Carlos Valle already making anywhere from $45M down to $32M combined for the next five seasons, adding on the future costs of Pineda and Thum might be too much to handle. Pineda would bring back a king's ransom, either in positions of need or another young pitcher with arbitration figures that align with the end of the Ramos and Valle deals. It's unlikely, but a Pineda trade in the next eighteen months wouldn't be the craziest thing this three-time General Manager of the Year Award winner has ever done. The glimmer and shiny of a Landis Trophy is like the siren's song luring sailors gone mad, and Collins has been at sea for far too long.
YELLOW SPRINGS NINE 2042-48 PAYROLL AND SALARY CAP TRACKER
| POS | NAME | AGE | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | Carlos Valle | 29 | $30.0m | $25.0m | $19.0m | $19.0m | $17.0m | $16.0m | |
| 1B | Lucas McNeill | 35 | $23.0m | $1.0m | $2.0m | $5.0m | $5.0m(P) | ||
| LF | Luis Costello | 29 | $8.5m | $9.0m(P) | $9.0m(T) | ||||
| 3B | Dong-po Thum | 24 | $8.1m | $11.1m(A) | $11.3m(A) | ||||
| CL | Curt Phillips | 27 | $7.0m | $7.0m | $7.0m | $6.0m(P) | |||
| RF | Grant Lee | 28 | $6.2m | ||||||
| SP | Ernesto Ramos | 27 | $6.0m | $20.0m | $19.0m | $17.5m | $17.0m | $16.0m | $15.0m |
| RP | Luis Colón | 27 | $4.2m | $4.2m(T) | |||||
| CF | Abdeljilill Sediki | 25 | $1.9m | $6.0m(A) | $8.0m(A) | ||||
| RF | José Machado | 26 | $800k | $990k(A) | $990k(A) | $990k(A) | $1.0m(A#) | ||
| RP | José Sánchez | 24 | $750k | $850k(A) | $850k(A) | $850k(A) | |||
| RP | Knud Calkhoven | 25 | $500k | $500k | $500k | $750k(A) | $750k(A) | $750k(A) | $750k(A) |
| 1B | Robert Chenoweth | 22 | $500k | $500k | $500k | $1.8m(A) | $2.0m(A) | $3.0m(A) | $4.0m(A) |
| RP | Alberto Contreras | 23 | $500k | $500k | $500k | $650k(A) | $650k(A) | $650k(A) | $650k(A) |
| RF | Jim Des Jardien | 25 | $500k | $500k | $750k(A) | $750k(A) | $750k(A) | $750k(A) | |
| RP | Armando Duarte | 22 | $500k | $500k | $650k(A) | $650k(A) | $650k(A) | $650k(A) | |
| RP | Carlos Elías | 23 | $500k | $500k | $500k | $750k(A) | $750k(A) | $750k(A) | $750k(A) |
| RP | Roberto Fernández | 23 | $500k | $500k | $750k(A) | $750k(A) | $750k(A) | $750k(A) | |
| LF | Rex Foster | 22 | $500k | $500k | $3.2m(A) | $3.6m(A) | $5.5m(A) | $7.0m(A) | |
| RP | Bartolo Gómez | 23 | $500k | $500k | $500k | $750k(A) | $750k(A) | $750k(A) | $750k(A) |
| 1B | Mark Haynes | 23 | $500k | $500k | $3.0m(A) | $4.4m(A) | $6.0m(A) | ||
| RP | Ángel Hernández | 23 | $500k | $1.3m | $2.0m(A) | $2.8m(A) | |||
| RP | Jean Kattenberg | 22 | $500k | $500k | $500k | $650k(A) | $650k(A) | $650k(A) | $650k(A) |
| 2B | Juan López | 26 | $500k | $1.1m(A) | $1.7m(A) | $2.2m(A) | |||
| 2B | Sergio Martínez | 24 | $500k | $500k | $750k(A) | $750k(A) | $750k(A) | $750k(A) | |
| LF | Ricardo Mendoza | 21 | $500k | $3.4m(A) | $5.0m(A) | $7.0m(A) | |||
| 1B | Seinosuke Muto | 25 | $500k | $500k | $500k | $750k(A) | $750k(A) | $750k(A) | $750k(A) |
| RP | Tiernan O'Macken | 23 | $500k | $2.2m | $3.2m(A) | $4.2m(A) | |||
| SS | Luis Peña | 22 | $500k | $2.7m(A) | $4.2m(A) | $5.8m(A) | |||
| RP | Sergio Pérez | 23 | $500k | $500k | $1.3m(A) | $1.9m(A) | $2.6m(A) | ||
| SP | Carlos Pineda | 22 | $500k | $500k | $5.8m(A) | $8.9m(A) | $11.1m(A) | ||
| RP | Roberto Ramírez | 21 | $500k | $500k | $1.1m(A) | $1.2m(A) | $1.8m(A) | $2.4m(A) | |
| SP | Tomás Ramírez | 23 | $500k | $500k | $3.4m(A) | $5.0m(A) | $6.5m(A) | ||
| RF | Javier Rodríguez | 24 | $500k | $500k | $750k(A) | $800k(A) | $1.2m(A) | $1.6m(A) | |
| C | Jesús Rodríguez | 23 | $500k | $500k | $950k(A) | $1.1m(A) | $1.6m(A) | $2.2m(A) | |
| CF | Ángel Ruíz | 22 | $500k | $500k | $500k | $650k(A) | $650k(A) | $650k(A) | $650k(A) |
| 3B | Blaine Tyler | 22 | $500k | $500k | $500k | $850k(A) | $950k(A) | $1.4m(A) | $1.9m(A) |
| C | Augusto Vargas | 23 | $500k | $500k | $650k(A) | $650k(A) | $650k(A) | $650k(A) | |
| 2B | Roberto Viramontas | 23 | $500k | $500k | $3.4m(A) | $5.0m(A) | $6.5m(A) | ||
| TOTAL | $110.5m | $107.4m | $124.2m | $114.4m | $94.3m | $58.1m | $25.9m |
