Let’s star with looking at guys who opted out. Ultimately, this means that we really can’t assess the quality of the decision until the player signs another deal and we can actually compare apples to apples. But we’ll try.
Perhaps the most interesting situation of all is in Charm City with Eliseu Satino. GM Brandon Slouck dis some interesting dipsy-do earlier and had Satino on a unique pair of deals that essentially worked out to be an eight-season contract. It worked like this: he had two seasons left at $5m per on his current deal (which had bought out Satino’s arbitration plus, but then signed a extension on top of that, a six season deal starting in 2044 that would pay him $8m+.
The fly in that ointment is that Satino had an opt out coming this year (which would have been the end of his arbitration years), an option that Satino just now took.
So it’s a weird situation, right? I’m not sure how OOTP is going to deal with it. Santino basically has a signed deal with CCJ that starts in 2044, but is without a deal for 2042 and 2043. Will Charm City be able to sign him for those two years? If they do, will that $8m/year deal still be active? I assume…maybe? All I can say for now is that Satino made the right call. He’s proven he’s a real hitter. He’ll make more than $5m per for the next two.
The legendary third baseman is probably in the process of putting the shine on a Hall of Fame career, and at 31-years old faced a question of whether to take $26m for one year, or cut bait with a now struggling Jacksonville club and try to find a place to win. He chose to opt out, which is probably a good enough decision, but we’ll see. It’s a similar situation to Mauro Flores’s decision a couple years back, meaning that it’s unlikely he’ll get someone to give him $26m next year, but if he gets more seasons guaranteed, he could come out ahead.
Flores almost certainly lost out because he had one good year (which could have made him a hot prospect in the off-season). If Noboru has a great year in 2042, he could wind up leaving cash on the table. He isn’t the guy he was, though. And if he signs for multiple years he locks in the future against possible further degradation. If TYler were still in the GM seat, maybe you'd see Noboru back, but with Gregg Greathouse there, I'm guessing the band aide will be ripped off.
Fingers crossed for Noboru, though. We need a cornerstone 3B around for a future HoF vote.
The 29-year-old ex-Nebraska winner opted out of a deal that would pay him $24m over the next two years. We’ll see what the future brings, but it looks like a good decision on the front end. Morales is clearly not the guy he was as a kid, but in this era of pitching being a big, sucking void, I think it’s easy to see him commanding three to six years at $15m—or more if bid fever hits a few GMs in serious need.
If he’d have waited, and taken the cash on the table, he wouldn’t have been a free agent until 2044, when he would have been 32. Probably the most interesting case when it comes to whether his source team (Wichita) will be able to resign him prior to Free Agents filing. Technically, I figure Wichita has the grub to get a big deal done, but are they in the right place with the right window to make that kind of commitment.
Our guess is no, but it’s a tough decision.
Rockville’s superstar catcher forwent $34m over three seasons, which is probably a pretty good idea. He’s only 27, after all. He’s a LHB with pop who can also handle a pitching staff. Look at what Aaron Stone got last year ($106m over five year), and you’ve got to think Flores will wind up with something in the same area code, especially when you take into account that Flores is 27 (Stone was 29). If Flores gets five or six years, he could wind up hitting free agency again as early as age 32.
I’m expecting Rockville will do what they can to bring Flores back, but the pocketbook is stretched pretty thin right now. That said, the fans will be a bit peeved if the Pikemen don't bring one of their favorites back.
So, yeah, the jury is out until a deal is inked, but the decision looks good right now.
Alicea has some risk. He’s 31 and was due $8m for the next three seasons (with player options attached to them all). He’s a solid pitcher, a lefty. One expects that he’ll make out just fine, but he just gave up $24m with a free agency window of his own choice up to age 34, so that’s a lot of flexibility. On the other hand, people need pitching, and as soon as Alicea is available you an expect his phone to ring off the hook.
The phone that’s probably ringing today is the one attached to Edmonton’s front office, checking to see if Alicea will accept a reasonable bump. I’m guessing they’d like him back, but that the price tag will be prohibitive…of course, that depends on how they plan to move on to defend their Landis crown. If they’re feeling their oats, perhaps the Jackrabbits will put a leash on Alice-hare-ah. Heh.
Bottom line, my guess is Alicea will get that $24m back, probably in two years rather than three. Jury is out, though.
At 33, one wonders if it was wise to give up $12m for one year. At the end of the day, I’m going to guess this one will be arguable, and maybe even a push. Just depends. The main problem is that Wareham keeps getting pressed into service as a shortstop, and that’s a bad idea. Perhaps a team who needs his OBP can find a place for him at 2B, where he'd be elite defensively, or 1B.
I dunno.
Regardless, I doubt he’ll make that $12m in one season, but it’s certainly possible he could wind up picking up extra years that will suggest that the decision to cut bait was okay. Still, I’d guess Mrs. Wareham might have been a little bit peeved at the news.
At 34, Delgado gave up $5m. It probably makes sense when you see he won 13 games for the Sluggers, but it probably doesn’t make sense when you see the ERA he threw while doing it. Sure, there was a bad vesting deal as the follow on year that Delgado was biting off if he accepted the option, but that wasn’t going to happen. So, really it’s a pretty simple math for Delgado. If he gets more than $5m for a year, then this was a good decision. Will he get it? My guess is no. Or, at least, in order to get it, he’ll need two years.
Of course, the bottom line of bottom lines is that he’s made $84m in his career. At this point we’re talking chump change.
Gaona is 33 years old, right handed, and passed up $9.5m after posting a 1.5 WAR, 104 OPS+ year at first base. Was this smart? Hmmm. My magic 8 ball says no, but I’ve been wrong before. That said, I think there’s a reason the Cougar front office was arranging for an impromptu banana bread party this afternoon.
