2039 BBA Trade Value Series: #10-#1

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2039 BBA Trade Value Series: #10-#1

Post by jleddy » Mon Aug 05, 2019 10:31 am

Just a reminder of a few notes about what you'll see below:
  • 2039 WAR figures are through July 20, 2039 and projected out for the rest of the season
  • Salary figures in grey italics are projected arbitration totals
  • Players selected in the 2039 First Year Draft were not considered for the list due to lack of professional experience
Part I: #50-#31
Part II: #30-#11

Without further ado, he's the top ten for 2039:

- - - - - - - - - -

#10 - Lorenzo Palácios, Rockville, LF
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One of only three players who's current contracts end after 2040 (#46 Rashardo Menne III and #37 Ángel García), Palácios has been arguably the best outfielder in the Brewster over the course of the past five years. So while Rockville (or a trading team) have only one more season to enjoy Palácios, there is an impressive track record, so getting just year of MVP-quality production at $11.1M is an absolute steal.


#9 - Manuel Aguilar, Jr., Hawaii, 1B
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While Aguilar has lived up to his top ten draft selection in 2034, he hasn't quite fulfilled the tagged "Second Coming" moniker. Two straight 4-win seasons before the age of 23 isn't something to knock, and no one expects him to produce a 10.4 WAR season like his father did in 2003, but as Aguilar's contract numbers rise through arbitration, he'll need to step up his bat at a position that requires big numbers to be considered special.


#8 - Andrew Torres, Madison, LF
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After being drafted 15th-overall out of college in 2036, scouts have appreciated Torres' skills more and more. While not injury prone, Torres has already had two separate four week-long stints on the injured list, including this year. Despite the missed time, Torres is on-pace to put up over 6 WAR in less than 125 games. The 6'6" lefty is slashing .344/.390/.548 for his career (1112 plate appearances) and is scheduled to earn less than $5M per season for the next four years. As safe a bet as you’ll get for high-level production at a low cost, Torres is one of the main reasons the Wolves can remain competitive despite rumors of a front office change in the coming off-season.


#7 - Aaron Haney, Valencia, CF
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The highest ranked minor leaguer in this year's list, Haney is likely to become the face of the Stars, if not the entire Brewster. While some may be incredulous that a smart major league club would trade almost anyone from their roster for a 20-year-old with zero major league experience, many respected executives around the league have said Haney could be better than Dennis French within three years. With a current Triple-A season in which "Slowpoke" is on-pace for over 10 WAR, Haney's arrival in the majors is coming sooner-than-later. That would mean #14-ranked Ramón Pagán would need to be moved to a corner outfield spot or could be flipped to help stockpile Valencia with the necessary pieces for a dozen-plus year run of Landis titles led by Haney.


#6 - Augusto Sánchez, Louisville, SP
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Sánchez doesn't have the physical make-up of a superstar pitcher, doesn't hit more than 94 MPH on the gun and wasn't a first-round draft pick but after four years in the minors and two partial seasons in the majors, Sánchez has started to figure it all out. In a league dominated by left-handed sluggers, the southpaw's plus-plus curveball can (and does) slice up the Brewster's best, not to mention a sneaky fastball and cutter. And, thanks to his contract, he’s one of the most valuable hurlers in the game. Eighteen million dollars doesn't buy much in free agency, but it gets Louisville one of the more exciting pitchers in the Johnson League.


#5 - David Simpson, California, RF
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Take a look at that projected WAR as a 22-year-old rookie. Given his skillset, it doesn’t seem crazy to project Simpson to hit .320 with 50-plus homers annually. If he were a few years younger and flashed better defense in the outfield, he might rank #1. But that is nitpicking so for right now, there’s legitimate superstar potential here. And he might have already reached it with five years of team-control remaining.


#4 - Steven Collins III, Edmonton, 3B
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The highest-ranked infielder on the list and one of only ten players with a perfect 80 current rating, Collins holds huge value despite heading into the expensive final three years of arbitration. Collins breads his butter with game-changing speed and the ability to hit over .300 with his hands tied behind his back, however front office executives love his ability to play all over the diamond. Collins' versatility is best displayed at 3B but he can more than hold his own at second base, and could even appear in LF, SS and 1B in an emergency. Leading the league in hits and stolen bases at age 21 is no small feat and shows what the superstar infielder is able to provide at a salary well under market.


#3 - Semei Kwakou, Louisville, RF
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Yeah, this is a very aggressive rating for a teenager who has been in the big leagues for half a season. But it's not outrageous to forecast 30+ WAR over the next five years, especially considering that Kwakou may win the Johnson League MVP in his rookie season. So while he hasn’t proven himself over a long haul in the big leagues, the history of guys who have done what he he's already been able to do at age 19 is extremely short but extremely impressive. There's even a group of front office executives who believe he’s not even a finished product yet. With French's arbitration numbers rising, if Kwakou keeps crushing pitchers for another year, he might be in the mix for the top spot in the 2040 list.


#2 - Héctor Márquez, Seattle, SP
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As with any pitcher, he could lose all of his value overnight, which is why only two pitchers made this year's top ten. But Márquez looks like a workhorse, so taking into account his production, scouting reports, and contract situation, he’s the pitcher I’d most want most in my organization. Although older than some flashier, more-hyped pitchers in the Top 50, Márquez seems like a sure-thing and a huge discount compared to some of the league's top pitchers who have already hit free agency, thus making him an ace that any team can afford, and not just the league’s biggest-market clubs.


#1 - Dennis French, Boise, CF
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I’d like to say the top spot was a tough call and lay out a 5000-word forum post of how I landed on this one, but it seemed like this would be the guy from early in the process. It's not out of the question that French can put up a couple of 10+ WAR seasons in the next four years for Boise. A lot of French's value comes from defense and baserunning, but there’s also plenty of bat here, as his batting title in 2038 suggests. French puts the small market Spuds in a tough spot, as they’d likely prefer to keep a franchise player around for awhile, but one wonders if they could speed up their progress and strengthen their organization by cashing in on French's top-ranked value.


- - - - - - - - - -

And there you have it, the conclusion of the first annual BBA Trade Value Series? Who'd we leave out? Who needs some helium to rise higher or who needs to be knocked down a rung or two?

Additionally, here's a few charts breaking down the Top 50:


TEAMPLAYERS IN TOP 50
Rockville5
Calgary3
Louisville3
San Antonio3
San Fernando3
Valencia3
Atlantic City2
Boise2
Des Moines2
Hawaii2
Jacksonville2
New Orleans2
Omaha2
Phoenix2
Twin Cities2
Yellow Springs2
Calfornia1
Edmonton1
Huntsville1
Long Beach1
Madison1
Mexico City1
Nashville1
Seattle1
Vancouver1
Wichita1
Brooklyn0
Charm City0
Las Vegas0
Montreal0

TEAMPOINTS
Valencia119
Louisville111
Rockville98
Calgary79
Yellow Springs68
Jacksonville65
San Antonio60
New Orleans59
Hawaii58
Boise53
Omaha51
Seattle49
Atlantic City48
Edmonton47
Calfornia46
San Fernando46
Madison43
Des Moines41
Wichita39
Twin Cities28
Mexico City19
Long Beach17
Nashville10
Phoenix10
Huntsville6
Vancouver5
Brooklyn0
Charm City0
Las Vegas0
Montreal0

POSITIONPLAYERS IN TOP 50
SP18
CF11
3B5
SS4
1B3
LF3
RF3
2B2
C1
RP0

For those interested, you can see the Top 50 spreadsheet (plus additional players we considered) below:
Attachments
2039 BBA Trade Value Worksheet.xlsx
(71.6 KiB) Downloaded 31 times
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Re: 2039 BBA Trade Value Series: #10-#1

Post by RonCo » Mon Aug 05, 2019 11:06 am

I ranked every player in the league at one point. :)
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Re: 2039 BBA Trade Value Series: #10-#1

Post by bschr682 » Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:52 pm

Ahhh yea. Getting a team with a big zero on this list...
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Re: 2039 BBA Trade Value Series: #10-#1

Post by recte44 » Mon Aug 05, 2019 4:43 pm

Go Hustlers!

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