2037: Homers and Gopher Balls

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RonCo
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2037: Homers and Gopher Balls

Post by RonCo » Fri Feb 22, 2019 9:55 am

By now the fact that the home run rate in the BBA spiked again in 2037, and unless you’re living in a world where you’re only skimming the BBA (and why would that be?) you probably also know that the San Fernando Bears enacted a barrage on the record books for offensive performance. I’m pretty sure Randy’s going to do a great study on this soon (he used the team Z-score, which is like … uh … can you talk any dirtier to me?), but for now let’s take a look at a balance chart for the league that’s similar to the RS/RZ chart from earlier.

In particular, I like this because—as noted in the earlier chart—the leverage a team gets by being good in a category is only really a value to the team if you’re also able to limit opponents in that same category. So a HR/HRA chart will let us see in a quick glance just how spectacular SFB was at converting those homers into an advantage.

Hint: They were pretty freaking spectacular.

Bottom line: Randy’s gathered up a scad of power hitters and plunked them into a park that helps them out a ton. Even better, he’s managed to keep his pitchers from giving up the ghost this year—including a career-best effort from Jon Reed (1.1 HR/9).

To see just how far SFB is from the norm for this season, here’s the chart:

2037-HR-HRA.PNG
2037-HR-HRA.PNG (14.55 KiB) Viewed 235 times

Of interest, of course, are the six teams I’ve highlighted.

Jacksonville steps out of the mire here, showing that for them the power game is a true pivot, and California is, of course, not far behind. It’s notable to think about the differences between California and San Fernando’s parks (and Jacksonville’s for that matter). We often think about one leg of this or the other…but, as noted, the advantage the park give is dependent upon the gap between offense and defense—meaning, for example, while there are fewer homers hit in California than San Fernando, the overall advantage that California has in the power game is very close to that of Jacksonville, and not out of the realm of San Fernando’s.

On the other side of the fence, we see a similar distribution between Vancouver, Hawaii, and Charm City. Vancouver’s park alone will limit homers their pitcher give up, but the fact is that their power output was horrendous for the same reason (the Mounties hit 62 homers at home, 71 on the road). In a similar fashion, Hawaii’s park is fairly neutral and Charm City’s is a homer haven. So it’s interesting to see those three teams spread as they are, all along a line that’s essentially parallel to the “normal” line. All three suffered essentially the same performance in the scheme of the power game. [It leads me to want to run the thought experiment of what would happen if you played a game of three team Monty and shuffled their parks. My guess is that they would win and lose the same number of games, but the order of where they fell on the lines would just swap.

OVERALL

Again, yes, this is a simplistic metric, but I like that it seems to say a lot in a very little amount of time.

Here’s the full list:

Team HR HRA
Rockville Pikemen 188 164
Brooklyn Robins 183 188
Montreal Blazers 194 209
Atlantic City Gamblers 247 206
Charm City Jimmies 186 284
Jacksonville Hurricanes 302 199
Huntsville Phantoms 262 202
New Orleans Crawdads 232 237
Nashville Goats 211 221
Louisville Sluggers 228 258
Phoenix Talons 282 227
Mexico City Aztecs 195 197
Las Vegas Hustlers 216 246
San Antonio Outlaws 200 209
Wichita Aviators 193 240
Omaha Hawks 248 230
Twin Cities River Monsters 202 219
Madison Wolves 157 203
Yellow Springs Nine 228 235
Des Moines Kernels 183 240
San Fernando Bears 365 227
California Crusaders 259 173
Long Beach Surfers 215 212
Valencia Stars 256 257
Hawaii Tropics 173 273
Edmonton Jackrabbits 209 159
Seattle Storm 191 199
Calgary Pioneers 180 180
Vancouver Mounties 133 251
Boise Spuds 213 186
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