DEFINITIONS
It’s a complicated question, of course—who are the league’s best drafters.
And in reality, what I’m doing here won’t answer the question fully. Perhaps there isn’t such a thing as an answer, really. Once you start to think about it, you see too many degrees of freedom. Teams draft early and late, and we can’t tell easily whether teams satisfied their real needs or not by cold data presented in Stats+, which basically just adds up WAR (insert Ted’s WAR, what is it good for thinking here…but maybe tone it down a little!). You can do your own studies, of course. And I recommend you play around with the tools. It’s fun and carries lots of vitamin C.
Maybe that last was wishful thinking, but what the hell.
Ultimately, though, I’ve done this little dive by looking at players who arrived in the majors and WAR yielded in only the last five seasons. I chose five seasons because it seemed like a reasonable middle ground. Choose too few years and you get a weighting toward guys who draft developed players. Too many years and maybe you get into other issues that include GM churn and wide variances in draft slots. Of course, those are issues to some degree anyway.
There’s also the issue that the league expanded in 2029, and again last season. So go too deep and you discount the four 2029 additions. Nothing to do for Boise and Wichita no matter what.
Still, for today I picked 5 years. Take that for what it’s worth.
Except, of course for one quite divergence…
A QUICK LOOKBACK OF 25 YEARS
Here’s the cumulative data for 2011-2035, 25 years. There are several interesting things to see here. First, Rockville/Carolina and Las Vegas are the clear victors, having each drafted over 600 WAR during that span. Then there’s a 60 point drop to Indy/Nashville.
After Nashville comes Jacksonville (Greenville). Then there’s a 20-WAR gap down to San Fernando (Havana), Louisville, and Yellow Springs. Long Beach (Tucson) comes next, and then we get another big 45 point gap to Calgary, Mexico City, and then Des Moines. Most of these teams have spent time down in the early rounds of the draft, some of them more than others.
Going to the bottom of the list (and ignoring expansion teams for the moment), we see two intriguing teams—Huntsville and New Orleans. These teams are traditional powerhouses, that’s for sure, but their drafts score over 300 WAR less than Las Vegas and Rockville.
CAVEAT: TRADES DON’T MATTER
One thing to note is that Stats+ accounts all players to the team that drafted them, not the team they arrived at. This is good for assessing draft results. The question we’re asking is how well teams draft...not how well they bring players to their own big league club—though obviously there would be some correlation.
LAST 5 YEARS: BY 5 TEAM BRACES
Let’s move on to the most recent period of 2031-2035. At this point the league’s structure is fairly consistent and the GMs a bit more stable. We can discount Boise, since their drafts have brought no players to the majors, and We’ll not really comment on Wichita either, as they have only one (for .8 WAR).
DRAFT VALUE: 1-5
Rockville (7 Players/37.4 WAR)
Edmonton (16/28.3)
Seattle (5/27)
Phoenix (6/24.6)
Vancouver (8/20.4)
Perhaps it’s not too surprising that Rockville is at the top of this list having yielded 7 players and 37.4 WAR in these five seasons. Aaron is the consummate drafter, and his Carolina club was drafting in power slots early in that span. Of note is that all seven of these players were hitters—the most beastly being catcher Francisco Flores. Bottom line, though, this huge gap of 9 WAR between first and second is perhaps described best as being what happens when a guy who knows what he’s doing drafts in positions of power.
Edmonton, too, has drafted in great positions, and as time moves forward one might expect to see the team close that WAR gap…they put 16 players in the majors already, led by Mitch Dalrymple, Chet Parrish, and Luis Costello. It looks like Brandon knew a thing or two about drafting.
Seattle scores high, of course, but the fact is that most all of that score is in the form of Ken Walter, who came to the club in 2031 when they were drafting in low position. Likewise comes Phoenix, who took Thad Meyer and Mario Deortez in the 6th and 3rd slots of their drafts. Vancouver takes their spot despite drafting down order a bit, and score most of their WAR in the form of Brett Compton (since traded to Mexico City), and Rashardo Menne III. With 8 players in the bigs, Brett’s work with Vancouver was second best of the group.
DRAFT VALUE: 6-10
Omaha: (7 Players/16.9 WAR)
Yellow Springs: (12/15.8)
Mexico City (10/15.5)
Brooklyn (8/13.7)
San Fernando (7/13.3)
Thanks to some dubious decisions by GMs before him, Justin Niles has been drafting in some pretty good positions, and he’s turned those classes into solid numbers. Both James Monger and Carson Stoller were first rounders who yielded, but Omaha has also seen 3rd rounder Eliseu Satino and 8th-rounder Terrance Mack making a few waves so far.
A tick behind, Yellow Springs has been drafting at the bottom end of the barrel for all of this span, but has turned our slots into 8 positive WAR players. Trades have sent Eric Fabre to Edmonton and Ernesto Garza to Des Moines, but Carlos Valle (4th round), Dimaio Laqui (2nd) and George Robertson (1st) are beginning to make waves—as is Curt Phillips. We’ve made no bones about the fact that we draft and develop for position, so ultimately, this is probably about as good as we can ever expect.
Drafting between 11 and 15 for three years, Fred Holmes pulled three winners out of the pile in CF Willard Gagne, and 1B Mike Ellis and Scott Harper. Harper is, of course, playing in Vancouver now after a big deal. Still, a solid enough performance to date. Over half of Brooklyn’s yield to date comes in the form of outfielder Harold Smith, who came in 2031 round 1. The rest is P Manuel Andres and 3B Same Wade—now with Nashville.
The bulk of San Fernando’s yield comes from early 1st round picks in RF Juan Santana and 3B Juan Mendoza. The rest is in 2nd rounder P Francisco Luna. It’s probably not a surprise the of these three, only Mendoza is still with the club, and Randy Weigand will trade anything not nailed down.
DRAFT VALUE: 11-15
California: (6 Players/12.6 WAR)
Huntsville: (11/11.5)
Twin Cities: (8/11.2)
Madison: (10/10.9)
Las Vegas: (8/10/5)
The Answer: Esteban Cuervo, Flynn Johnson, and Nico Eijpe. The question: Who were the California Crusaders first, second, and third round picks in 2031? The three have teamed up for what is effectively the entire current yield of the Crusader’s last five seasons draft. GM Ted Schmidt is a pretty wily drafter overall, and I’m interested to see how this collection expands over the next five years, though.
Though toward the bottom of the pile in the 25-year scope, Huntsville scores pretty well in this 5-year view, mostly on the wings of CF Tim Torres who came out of the third round in 2034. Add in P Ryosei Akiyama and SS Fernando Navarro who came from rounds 3 and 6 in the 2031 process and you’ve got an interesting way into the top 15. It will be interesting to see how this path changes under Kyle’s approach again.
Not to outdo the Phantoms, Twin Cities’ top performer comes from the 8th round. Catcher Gerald Gonzalez was brilliant in his first two seasons, then seems to have faded away. That said, the team is mostly drafted in the early rounds of the process, and seen only a little value—Duane Whitely, Jr. and Wes Savage are up and playing. We’ll see what the future holds…in the end, this mid-pack slot is probably about right for now, though. GM Scott Piccoli may be hearing rumblings from the fans. On the other side of the coin, Heartland rival Madison has been selecting down in the 20s, and has dredged up five productive players led by 2B Jerod Thealer (2nd round in 2033), and Niccolo Machiavelli (1st 2033). 5th round Shortstop Dashiell Faireborn is no longer with the team, or he’d be the club’s #2 performer. Lance Robison and Natanael Barral came from the 7th and 2nd rounds to provide positive value. Bottom line is that Chris Wilson is finding guys up and down the ranks.
Then we come to Las Vegas—who per our opening segement is a dominant force over the course of the last quarter century, but who sits in 15th place over the past five seasons to date. Of particular note here is that only one of the six players the Hustlers have yielded came from their first round (swing man Manuel Orozco, drafted in 2033). RF Adrian Young (2nd round, 2031) is the only guy of the batch to register over 2 WAR total, and he’s playing in Huntsville now. One has to question if the commish has lost his magic touch, or whether he’s just taking it easy on us for awhile.
DRAFT VALUE: 16-20
Long Beach: (6 players/9.3 WAR)
Calgary: (5/8.3)
Atlantic City: (9/8.2)
Louisville: (8/6.6)
Valencia: (7/6.6)
We’re getting down into the lower part of the list, and as such you might think there’s les to talk about. But that’s not completely true. Stephen Lane’s Long Beach Surfers have been drafting in the 17-28 range for the past five seasons, but that hasn’t stopped them from plucking Gilstrom frontrunner 2B Sloan David (25th pick two years ago) and LF Pedro Holguin (4th round, 2031). Four other players from rounds 1, 2 and 3 have made positive WAR in limited time—pitcher Kevin Graham being one with perhaps the most interesting future.
2031’s draft saw Calgary GM Kevin Dickson nab 3B Jose Rios and his 5 WAR out of the first round, and C Hector Suarez and his 1.47 WAR out of the third. Between those came Miguel Serrano, who is now a top prospect in Nashville. There’s probably more where that’s coming from—under Dickson, Calgary might be the deepest team in the league—so the fact that the Pioneers settle down in 17th is perhaps a measure of their luxury status than anything else (though, yeah, the record this year is amazing in that not-so-good way).
Of particular note in this flight of five is that Atlantic City GM Joshua Biddle hasn’t made big splashes, but does lead the group in the number of WAR-positive players he’s pulled from the farm pond. Also of note is that, drafting from mid-pack, he’s developed players from the 1st-through the 4th round. While Virgil Shafer is with New Orleans now, Keith Dean and Dusty Welch have already supplied over 2 WAR and look like they should add value for a long time. Biddle is one of our more silent, but effective GMs, and this draft performance seems to fit the bill. Stay tuned for future developments.
Louisville’s numbers have a lot of the Genius still lingering in them, but Nigel Laverick is getting settled. The Sluggers tend to draft at the back of the class, and as such you see more of a scatter to their successes. RF Vince Osborn came from the 2nd round. William Gelinas from the 4th. Those are the two guys who bring the majority of their WAR yield. 1B Pedro Bebesa (7th round) and Doug Glover, Jr. (1st) round out the collection. Given that Louisville drafts so deep, being 19th is a suggestion that maybe Stu knows what he’s doing?
And then comes Valencia—home of the draft pick bust for most of the decade that I’ve been in the league. The fact is, however, that the worm may be turning for Lee Honigsfeld. SS Angel Zalapa (1st round in 2033) is making his debut, and has already generated over half the Stars’ draft 5-year-draft yield. The sky’s the limit. 2032’s second rounder 3B Kiichi Suzuki, and 2032/2034 1st rounders Curt Love and Ramon Pagan have made solid debuts. I’m guessing that if we take this same cut in a couple years, Valencia will be climbing the charts. Given the strong draft positions the team’s been in, you’d hope that was the case…but given Valencia’s snake-bit nature, you’ve got to think fans are still holding their breath.
DRAFT VALUE: 21-24
Hawaii: (8 players/6.4 WAR)
Nashville: (11/4.1)
San Antonio: (6/3.6)
New Orleans: (4/3.5)
Mike Bieschke’s Tropics have been drafting in the upper single digits mostly, positions 7-9 mostly. As such, you’d hope for more, really. The first rounders from 2031-2033 (P Dean Oulton, 3B Dave Tallent, and LF Brenton Allen) have at least yielded to the majors. 2031 2nd rounder Ernesto Alfiche gets style points for the name, and should still be solid. Overall, though, not the showing Hawaii fans were expecting. Nashville, too, picking in the upper third most years, would probably have hoped for more. That said, Justin Jackson (2-32, round 1) is making a very solid debut with 3.96 WAR, and that should just get better. 6th rounder Bernard Keller has been a positive surprise, too, so there’s hope. Of course, Keller is with Brooklyn now. Bottom line is that it’s probably early to judge Brett Golden’s draft skilz.
San Antonio’s numbers are, well, not good. At least three of the four guys who have created a little positive WAR are still with the team, though GM Mike Calvaruso pulled not a single one from the first round. Beyond that, only outfielder Cipriano Martinez came in round two. Yes, not good, but still arguably better than New Orleans GM Jim Roberts, who has generally been selecting in the middle third of the league, but who has yielded 3B Julio Montoya and a couple bit-part pitchers. Again, not what you’d want—and in this case there’s a correlation with the 25-year view that shows the Crawdads toward the bottom. Given the success of the team over that span, one has to look in other directions than the draft.
DRAFT VALUE: 25-28
Des Moines: (11 players/3.1 WAR)
Charm City: (9/3.1)
Montreal: (8/1.5)
Jacksonville: (8/0.9)
Des Moines may be the most interesting team of the bottom suite. Ed Murphy has yielded only 3.1 WAR, but they’ve got a first rounder in Stephen Taub (2.37—now with Hawaii) and Willie Carter (2.93). They’ve also broke a couple small WAR guys this year. What hurts them is at the bottom of the list, in that negative WAR guys like current YS9 outfielder John Ginn sap their numbers. Don’t get us wrong, though. The Kernels draft in mostly solid slots, but are toward the bottom no matter how you judge them. Fans are not impressed.
2034 saw Charm City 1st rounder Michael Best, and that alone should make this entry raise through the ranks for GM Brandon Slouck. Pitcher Fabiano Perrolas, who yielded from the third round of 2031, should also make this ranking move. It’s interesting, though, that of the six players who have created positive WAR from the Jimmies draft only Best has come from the first round.
Thanks to a solid level of success, Montreal drafts late—which would suggest they should be where they are, toward the bottom. That said, the club has yielded four players, including pitcher Vincente Lopez (rd 1, 2033) and 2B Kel Bacon (rd, 2, 2031). New GM Alvin Kaufmann may well benefit from a slow burn, but high value long game.
Similarly, Jacksonville has yielded two WAR-positive major leaguers so far—both playing for other teams, both from deep rounds of 2031 (Pedro Saldana, LOU, 4th round and Alejandro Ramirez, Vancouver, 8th round). Six other Hurricane players have appeared in the BBA, but created negative WAR. Of note is that of the 8 total draftees Tyler Simmons has drafted and that made the BBA, only one is still with Jacksonville, which probably says something about the Jacksonville strategy for extending their run. ---------------------------------------- So, there you have it. A comprehensive, but probably flawed review of the draft process over the past five years. It will be fun to take a look at the same cut in a couple years to see how value builds. What teams will raise, what teams will fall.
Sounds like future podcast fodder!
