One man's HoF criteria: The Magic Numbers

[cheekimonk]

As a beat writer for The Kraken Release, I am granted a ballot for the Hall of Fame every season. A Hall of Fame vote is without a doubt the most complicated vote cast every season. All fans have their favorites and each person granted a ballot has different standards by which they judge candidates. Add to that the fact that candidates can only be on the ballot for so long, so sometimes you have to let your heart into the process a bit to let a guy who might be a little less deserving than a younger player sneak in under the wire.

With all that said, I thought I would be as transparent as possible with my HoF criteria so that maybe (but probably not) the volume of hate in my inbox won't be so large this season. I'll start with the most obvious...

Criteria #1: The Magic Numbers

There are certain milestone numbers that I think everyone can agree garner near automatic entry to the HoF at some point. Forget Sabremetrics, VORP, WORP, OPS, et. al. Outside of setting the record for one of those stats, however, the actual number can be debated. So here is a look at mine:

The Magic Numbers for Hitters

Here are the 3 stats to which I convey "magic number" status: HR, SB, H. Some people put less value on raw numbers because they can reflect having less injuries and/or just hanging around a long time. I do think that's a valid argument when comparing a small number of players, when establishing an upper threshold I contend that it doesn't matter. Having less injuries, over the long haul, is more about staying in shape than being lucky, and hanging around a long time wouldn't happen if the player was no longer productive. However, I don't consider RBI and R as magic numbers because they are much more dependent on a player's supporting cast over his career. Also, production in one or more of the former stats will typically produce stellar RBI or R numbers.

HR: The Magic Number: Looking at existing HoF members, Henry Jones sets the pace with 616. So the magic number should be around 600, right? No so fast. The player occupying 2nd place on the all-time HR list, Sawyer Silk played 13 full seasons in the MBBA and still would have needed nearly 4 more full seasons to catch Jones. We can observe, however, that only 4 of the 22 hitters in the HoF have reached the 400 mark in HRs: the aforementioned Silk (478), Fred Mahaffey (453), Randy Spratt (425), and Frank Boehner (414).

So the magic number to jump near the top of my ballot is 400 HRs.

SB: The Magic Number: SBs, in the MBBA HoF, are much harder to analyze than HRs. Leading the pack is Steve Collins with 1,055. Then there is Tom Laverriere with 913 and John Bockus with 785. Even though there is considerable separation between those three, they still far outpace the rest of the field. Where you find a reasonable cluster is in the neighborhood of 500 to 600 SBs with three players represented: Scott Bucher (578), Ryoko Masaki (538), and Miles Dalrymple (501).

So considering that the reasonable target is actually 4 players down the list, my magic number of SBs will not jump a player as high on my ballot as HRs, but I will perk up when I see 500 SBs.

Hits: The Magic Number: Borrowing from an alternate universe, some purists have nothing but disdain for players in the Pete Rose/Ichiro Suzuki/Ty Cobb/Wee Willy Keeler mold. As a former pitcher I understand the hate, but I maintain it doesn't matter. However I do put less value on massive numbers of hits as opposed to HRs or even SBs. In the HoF there are only 2 players with 3000+ hits: Collins (3,548) and Spratt (3,259). Like HRs, there is a huge gap between those two and the rest of the field. But there are 3 players that have breached 2,600 hits. Mahaffey recorded 2,691 hits in his career, Bombo Vadabonceour logged 2,683, and Laverriere 2,625.

So, for hits, surpassing 2,600 will get my attention immediately.

The Magic Numbers for Pitchers

There really are only three numbers that can qualify for "magic" status in a pitcher's career: wins, saves, and strikeouts. The other major stats, WHIP and ERA, have to be considered in a context and, generally, to have been sustained over an exceptionally long career. But there are problems with these numbers. Wins and saves are, obviously, not completely in the pitcher's control. And strikeouts, while objective, don't completely convey worth as there are many successful hurlers who didn't pile up the Ks. Still, we have to start somewhere...

Ks: The Magic Number: Steve Nebraska compiled 6,156 strikeouts in his career. That is 55% more than the next pitcher on the list in only 8% more starts. That is astonishing. But, then, 7 of the 15 pitchers in the HoF are within +/- 8% of 3,000 Ks (the outlier between this group and Nebraska being Fernando Huertas with 3,969).

So I don't think it's a reach to see over 3,000 strikeouts on a pitcher's resume and shoot him near the top of a ballot.

Ws: The Magic Number: This is a pretty consistent number in the MBBA HoF. Going down the list you get all the way to the 11th pitcher (in number of wins), Roy Hobbs, Jr., and he still has 177. Three of the four below Hobbs have triple-digits in saves.

I think it's safe to look for 200 wins if searching a magic number.

Saves: The Magic Number: There are only three pitchers in the HoF with over 100 saves in their career: Damon Lombardi (426), Benji Madisson (401), and Schmidt Meyer (255).

It's hard to derive a magic number from such a small sample, but I think there is no doubt if you see 300 or more saves. Even at 200 you have to take a very close look.

Coming up next, The Magic Combos!!

[recte44]

[Shugi]

fascinating read!

[jcrmoon42]

I don't think that counting stats are worthless by any means. There are many ingredients to the recipe for a HOFer. Counting stats are one of them, but you can make a pretty tasty dish with averages as well. Certainly, you need to play long enough for the averages to be significant, but if they are strong enough, they can do the trick.

For me, the issue is whether or not the player was the best, or at least among the very, very best, at his position during a significant period of time. That's part of why I like the spreadsheet we use, because you can compare players from the same era right next to each other and decide which numbers mean the most to you.

[cheekimonk]

Matt, I wasn't sure if this went in the "League Features" or "Hall of Fame" board. Feel free to move if it's in the wrong place...

[lynchy34]

You definitely have to re-adjust counting number stats when looking at HOF voting in online leagues. Great stuff here.

[aaronweiner]

Don't worry, you're gettin' paid either way.

Matt, I wasn't sure if this went in the "League Features" or "Hall of Fame" board. Feel free to move if it's in the wrong place...

[KCCardinalFan]

Very good stuff. I agree, for people new to this league (myself included), it is easy to get caught up in MLB's magic numbers which can leave great players out of the mix. It will be interesting to watch how those numbers adjust as we get more history. I think we are in a talent-rich era, but now the draft is starting to adjust things a bit.

[aaronweiner]

I have to agree that this was unusually insightful. That said, I'm still not voting for Caldwell.

[cheekimonk]

Bump for the 2001 vote (and as a reminder for me to get going on Part 2.

[recte44]

Vote for Caldwell!!!!!

Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk

[cheekimonk]

Thought I would bump this since there was a related thread. I never did get around to the "Magic Combos", but I'm 100% in agreement with Chris (Madison GM) that most of us tend to have a "real-life, MLB" filter for threshold numbers like strikeouts, wins, homeruns, etc.

[jcrmoon42]

I think the RL "magic numbers" have become so ingrained, it is hard to adjust mentally to a lower standard.

That is one reason why I like our system. You are voting on them relative to one another, and the lack of RL magic numbers comes into play less.

[jcrmoon42]

A great example of why "magic numbers" are irrelevant is Joe Belinda. He was a good, not great hitter who only made one All Star Game in his 13 year career, indicating where he stood against others at his position. However, he hit over 500 home runs, only one measure of a player's ability, and he gets a lot of attention on the ballot.