Brooklyn is totally burning up the basepaths this year. They’ve stolen 392 bases, after all. That’s right. 392. No typos there. That’s all part of their success story, right? Well, yes, and no. Yes, they’ve stolen a crap-ton of bases, but no, they’ve also been caught a bunch of times: 186 to be specific.
The bottom line is that their success rate of about 68% is enough that their running game is producing a net positive, but low enough that it’s not the positive it could be.
How good
could it be?
We’re glad you asked. Let’s compare the Robins to Madison, the team that has the best baserunner in the league, and quite possibly the best baserunner in the history of the league in Mons Raider.
- Brooklyn: 392 SB, 186 CS (67.8%)
- Madison: 258 SB, 102 CS (71.7%)
How much is that 4% difference worth? Well, as a rough rule of thumb, I generally say a SB is worth .33 runs, and a CS costs a team .64 runs. These numbers can adjust a little league to league, but they’re a decent enough guideline. If we apply those weights we get the following:
- Brooklyn: 392 SB – 186 CS = 129.36 Runs – 119.04 Runs = 10.32 Runs
This means Brooklyn’s running game has netted them about 10 runs, and at 10 runs = a win, that suggests their basepath daring-do has them one game better off than they would be if they just never ran at all.
- Madison: 258 SB - 102 CS = 85.14 Runs – 65.28 Runs = 19.86 Runs
Doing the same math says the Wolves as a team are essentially two wins better off for all that running. That’s right…they’ve stolen 134 fewer bases than the Robins, but have gotten twice the value out of their running game.
Take what you want from this little back-of-the-napkin study, but to date, Brooklyn is in an unlikely dogfight for a playoff position, and Madison is standing atop the Heartland by a slim margin. One game either way makes a big difference to both, we think.
You did much better than I would have though.
