Marquette Suns: 2000 Preview

[aaronweiner]

Overview:

How good will Marquette be without Allen Izatt? That's the main question surrounding the team as they go into 2000 without the #1 ranked starter in the entire MBBA and last year's FL Steve Nebraska Award winner. It's impossible to replace Izatt, but is it possible that the Suns have done enough that they've allowed for his absence?

Of course, Marquette DID win the FL Midwest last year by a healthy eight games over Des Moines and nine over the Birmingham Bandits and have done some work to plan for this, so one would think they have some margin of error. Let's look more deeply at one of the Frick's more intriguing teams.


Review of last year:

Marquette re-established themselves as a powerhouse last year. Already blessed with Allen Izatt, they acquired Jeff Kiplinger to create one of the best one-two punches in the league and came within two games of going to the Landis Memorial, dropping a series in six to the Buffalo Bison.

The Suns were basically average offensively last year, but their pitching staff was among the top in the league and by year's end, they were defensively sound. They basically ran away with the division at midseason, as Des Moines struggled badly and Birmingham collapsed after a strong early-season start.


Key Additions: Rene Arocha (returned from injury/free agent) Theo Epstein (free agent), Jose Mijangos (trade), Rafael Avila (trade)

Key Departures: Allen Izatt (season-ending injury), John Behnke (trade), Gabriel Steel (free agency)

Transaction Analysis:

The Behnke deal was mutually beneficial; Hawaii gains one of the higher rated starting catchers in the league, while Marquette gains not only an outstanding young catching prospect in Rafael Avila but also a very advanced prospect in Jesus Silva and two other promising players. The loss of Behnke may hurt Marquette's offense, though they already had Sean Smith on the roster, acquired Avila in the deal and managed to sign Theo Epstein, so there's some cause for positive thinking here. Avila will almost certainly play 2000 at AAA Racine. Signing Theo Epstein made a lot of sense in light of the Behnke deal; Epstein will have to get off his weak hitting the last two years, however, and hit.


Positional Analysis:

Overview:

While many of Marquette's players have been solid producers, they'll need a few people to step up and continue their production this year. There's no question that the infield should be productive; however, Marquette will have a very weak outfield this season, and while the outfield should be sound defensively they're a no-hit group other than Morris Pennebaker. The team is also very, very shallow offensively; any injuries to a non-catcher will likely result in a serious dropoff.

Catcher:

One of the deepest crews in the league; Epstein hasn't wowed with the bat but he's a fantastic defender, should be thrilled to be on a winning team and could surprise. Sean Smith is an excellent platoon player, and youngster Rafael Avila has an outside shot of stealing the job.

First Base:

Paul Barfoot is one of the league's most reliable players; he should again be good for at least 25-30 homers and a .360 OBP. He'll be more important than ever this year. If he's injured, the team will have one of the more talented backups in the league in Hector Ruiz.

Second Base:

Tex Correia returned to the .300 level last year, and he's a defensive plus at second base. He's shown no indication lately of being able to reproduce his 1996 numbers (.326-20 HR-.884 OPS) and they may need to lean on him as well this season. Backing up Correia is a group that includes Bill Deming, Will Sodani and Jack McKeon Eoff, none of whom are multitalented.

Shortstop:

Nobody believes that Robert Badgett will hit .295 again this season, but he's one of the best defensive infielders in the game today. He's good enough that he'll save runs with his glove. McKeon Off will also back him up.

Third Base:

Joseph Guillen is firmly entrenched as the starter after two outstanding seasons; at this point we're expecting greatness and so far Guillen has delivered. We also like Mark Norton, his backup; we think that Norton's a potential starter, though not a star.

Outfield:

Right now, Pennebaker is the only sure thing in the Marquette outfield offensively. It's worth noting that Pennebaker's numbers were his worst since his rookie season last year and he has lost a hint of bat speed this offseason; however, the outfielder is still among the more valuable players in the Frick. The other two outfielders, whichever two they might be, will be mostly no-hit, good field players; Robert Donegan is the only one who might surprise with the bat.


Pitching:

It's important to note that Marquette finished fourth in ERA WITH Allen Izatt; it's also important to note that they did so WITHOUT Rene Arocha.

Rotation:

It's hardly fair to say that a pitching staff that's led by Jeff Kiplinger may be crippled by the loss of Allen Izatt; Kiplinger is absolutely an ace in his own right and posted a dazzling 15-10, 3.19 ERA and 1.04 ratio. A bounce-back year from Andres Guzman will help. Vernon Fredette has been good at every level so far; he seems overwhelmingly average but has made the most of his skills. Paul Martin has been consistently average.

Finally, the Suns did make one major, yet subtle adjustment last year in adding Rene Arocha to the pitching staff last year as a free agent and signing him to a contract extension. Arocha had a good year last year, unlike in recent years, so he's a fascinating wild card.

All of that is to say that the Suns still have a very capable rotation led by a legitimate #1 starter; not everyone in the league can say both of those things with confidence. They even have reasonably capable depth starters in Lance Dickson, Ken Quinney and Robert Smith. There are several rotation members who could take a major step forward with only Fredette perhaps primed to take a step backwards towards average.


Bullpen:

Other than young star Adrian Nelson and veteran Chester Palabra, far from a sure thing in his own right, we have a fair dose of healthy skepticism about this group. It's not that they don't have talent; the group looks, however, as a whole, like there's no upside. If they can get a healthy dose of mediocrity from their pen and Nelson and Palabra hold leads, however, they should be quite satisfied with that.

Competition:

The FL Midwest is just about always a war, and it could be again this year. Des Moines is still a thoroughly complete team and probably Marquette's primary challenger. New Orleans' pitching staff is more than suspect; their concentration on youth (and a payroll at a meager $45 million) shows they're not ready or willing yet to do what it takes to take the next step. That said, they MAY hit enough to make up for their shortcomings on the mound. Birmingham looks to be having a bit of a down year, however; they'd be a lot better if Damian Bedgood was healthy, but their current alignment, with John Ericks as the #5 starter, shouldn't finish much better than .500, if that.

Final Analysis:

It will be interesting to see how Marquette does without Allen Izatt. With Izatt, one would suspect a division title to be closer to a sure thing; it's hard to lose a guy who went 24-6 with a 2.63 ERA and be the same team.

A fair amount will depend on whether Rene Arocha pitches like he did in 1999 (and, similarly, in 1995), when he posted a 3.48 ERA in 114 innings, or in the years 1996-1998, when he went 20-34 with an ERA of 6.07 in 400+ innings. Arocha's still a talented starter and his struggles have mystified, so if he's back to his 1993-1995 levels then Arocha might be the guy who pitches Marquette to a division title. The dropoff from Izatt to the best possible version of Arocha is probably a solid 3-4 game downward swing, but that's a lot better than a replacement-level player.

On paper, Des Moines is likely the better team, though they've suffered through some adversity lately as well. (Wings Hauser, or Aaron Hayes, anyone?) They're still a very good team, but they're hardly indomitable themselves, and they have some painful salary decisions to make (cutting Hauser, the most logical choice, would cost about $20 million).

It's possible that the division is won with less than 90 wins, which certainly puts Marquette into play, and Des Moines, and possibly Birmingham and even New Orleans, depending on how well their core players perform. It will be interesting to watch the race this year.


Projection for Marquette: 86 wins or better. If they win 86, they may very well lose the division. A 90-win season should give them their second consecutive FL Midwest crown.

[lynchy34]

Yeah, I think because the division is so tough that no one runs away with it with 95+ wins. The two players you linked from Des Moines bring me great pain and have forced me to change my preferred strategy.

[aaronweiner]

Well, we play a balanced schedule, so I don't think the division itself is such a big deal. The problem I have is that every team in the division has serious question marks, so I can't see anyone winning close to 95 games this year.

Marquette had seeming falloffs in BOTH hitting AND pitching...few teams can say that and still win as many games as the year before. Some combination of a big year from Arocha and a bounce back year from Guzman may fill the void, but then there's the likely dropoff from Behnke.

[aaronweiner]

Should I be at least a little insulted that Brad couldn't take the time to respond to this?

[LambeauLeap]

Sorry! I thought I did. Very nicely written. Pretty spot on too.

2-6 start, so I gots me some problems.

[LambeauLeap]

Should I be at least a little insulted that Brad couldn't take the time to respond to this?

I just got one lousy stinkin' sentence from you for the one I wrote so get off your high horse

[KCCardinalFan]

Quit complaining, I spent 90 minutes on Vegas and I don't think Matt even read it

[LambeauLeap]

He read it, just been jammin' busy

[KCCardinalFan]

He read it, just been jammin' busy

Yeah, yeah...excuses excuses.

[KCCardinalFan]

It looks like Izatt may be lumping a bit, hopefully related to the injury. Will be interesting to watch if he can bounce back.

[aaronweiner]

No, it was two sentences. And they began a possible discussion.

I can tell you that Damian Bedgood lumped a bit after his injury, but he eventually came back at full strength. Besides, I'd take 85% of Izatt.

[KCCardinalFan]

No, it was two sentences. And they began a possible discussion.

I can tell you that Damian Bedgood lumped a bit after his injury, but he eventually came back at full strength. Besides, I'd take 85% of Izatt.

[lynchy34]

Quit complaining, I spent 90 minutes on Vegas and I don't think Matt even read it

I didn't get a response or a preview. So there!

[KCCardinalFan]

Quit complaining, I spent 90 minutes on Vegas and I don't think Matt even read it

I didn't get a response or a preview. So there!

I don't think that is getting topped.