JL Pacific Stretch Run Preview II

[aaronweiner]

Oh geez.

Team Records

Valencia Stars 80 73 .523 - Currently tied for JL Pacific
Hawaii Tropics 80 73 .523 - Currently tied for JL Pacific
California Crusaders 80 74 .519 ½


Team Schedules


Valencia Stars

Games left: 9

Games left against contenders: 7 (Hawaii four, California three)

Games left against sub-.500 teams: 2 (Vancouver)


Hawaii Tropics

Games left: 9

Games left against contenders: 6 (Valencia four, California two)

Games left against sub-.500 teams: 3 (Vancouver)


California Crusaders

Games left: 8

Games left against contenders: 5 (Hawaii two, Valencia three)

Games left against sub-.500 teams: 3 (Vancouver)


Key Series: Again, basically ALL of them.



Analysis of JL Pacific

Oh boy. Eight games remain, and it's very difficult to spell an advantage between these teams.

We're still thinking that Vancouver will determine this race; nothing, in other words, has changed in our minds. Deciding who's going to win among three very evenly-matched teams is a crapshoot, but winning against the sole losing team in the division might be more probable. In that sense, this game will be a game of inches.

To repeat: Vancouver is 7-11 against Hawaii, 9-10 against Valencia and 10-9 against California – and Vancouver seems only too happy to play spoiler.

And, again: Valencia leads the season series against both California and Hawaii, but the difference is negligible in all cases. Valencia is ahead of Hawaii by a 10-8 count; California is 9-10 against Valencia and 9-11 against Hawaii. However, both Cal and Hawaii have been better against Valencia later in the season.

In other words,

In other words, it’s hard to say exactly how this is going to go. There's a good chance that there will be a playoff, or that there will be a division winner and a wild card winner, or something. In other words, all we have with eight or nine games to go is a guess...and it's not a good one.


Odds to win the JL Pacific

Playoff of some sort: 35%
Valencia 22%
Hawaii 22%
California 21%