FL Atlantic Stretch Run Preview

[aaronweiner]

Before the season, this prognosticator suggested that the Des Moines Kernels were the league's most improved team. Well, while it's not completely official, Des Moines is in; their magic number is 4 with 17 games left to go. Austin has been a shell of last year's team, and Birmingham hasn't collapsed, they've imploded. A much more surprising development is that Las Vegas isn't going to be the Pacific champs: that'll be Seattle, whose magic number is just ten games with sixteen to play, and they'd have to basically lay an egg to not host a first round playoff series.

The third division is not quite so cut and dried. As we wrote early in the season, Atlantic City, Hackensack and Buffalo are bringing the FL Atlantic down to the wire, and all three teams also have a shot at the wild card if none of them win the division. Atlantic City currently leads the Atlantic, and Hackensack is in first place in the wild card race. However, because all these teams play each other a number of times over the next three weeks, they may not be able to keep up with the Las Vegas Hustlers, who are just a game back in the wild card race and are done playing all three teams.

So, let's take a closer look at the FL Atlantic, and we promise we'll pick a winner at the end of this one.


Team Schedules

Atlantic City Gamblers (81-64, first, FL Atlantic)
Games left: 17
Games left against contenders: 8 (Hackensack four, Buffalo three, Des Moines one)
Games left against sub-.500 teams: 9 (Montreal six, New Orleans three)

Hackensack Bulls (79-66, first, FL Wild card, 2 games back, FL Atlantic)
Games left: 17
Games left against contenders: 13 (Buffalo six, Atlantic City four, Calgary three)
Games left against sub-.500 teams: 4 (Montreal three, Long Beach one)

Buffalo Bison (77-67, 3.5 games back, third, FL Atlantic)
Games left: 18
Games left against contenders: 11 (Hackensack six, Atlantic City three, Calgary two)
Games left against sub-.500 teams: 7 (Montreal four, Long Beach three)

Key Series Down the Stretch

Hackensack at Calgary, September 13-15
TIVO rating: 65

This series has some wild card importance, especially for Calgary, but the Bulls will really need to win this series to keep close to Atlantic City.

September 19-22: Hackensack at Atlantic City, four games
TIVO rating: 90
Atlantic City has five games against New Orleans and Montreal before this one while Hackensack, already two games back, has to play contenders Calgary and Buffalo. So, it’s possible that Hackensack could be four or five games back when the two teams play a four-game set. If Atlantic City wins this series, it’s possible that it will end the race early.

September 23-25, Buffalo at Atlantic City
TIVO rating: 80

If Buffalo has been winning games up until this point, it’ll be their last chance to gain ground directly on the Gamblers. If they haven’t, it’s their chance to play spoiler.

September 26-29, Hackensack at Buffalo
TIVO rating: 70

This one could theoretically determine the division winner, but it also has huge wild card ramifications. Both teams have super tough schedules and could both be out of it at this point unless one team asserts themselves in a big way.

Analysis of FL Atlantic Race

Atlantic City has really put themselves into the driver’s seat here, and there’s really little question that they’re the team to beat. In addition to having the league’s most potent offense – every single starter is at or above league average - their pitching has been solidly middle of the pack, and there are no serious holes anywhere. If that weren’t enough help, Atlantic City ALSO has by far the easiest schedule of all the contenders in their division.

So, does anyone have a shot? Well, Atlantic City is a solid 8-9 against Hackensack, so there’s no reason to believe they’ll be swept in their four-game set despite having been swept by the Bulls in early September. Plus, all three of those games were decided by a total of four runs; it’s just as likely the Gamblers will sweep the Bulls as the converse. Plus, as we mentioned above, even a sweep might not win the division for Hackensack; the Bulls still have to play a ridiculous 13 of their last 17 against teams still in the playoff hunt. Finally, the Bulls are out Ron Burgundy and John Ross Riles for a few games – Burgundy until the playoffs – and that won’t help anyone.

We haven’t even mentioned Buffalo yet. Buffalo has a tough enough task coming back from three and a half back (three in the loss column). However, even tougher than this is the fact that Buffalo and Hackensack play each other SIX times over the next three weeks. Either one will cancel the other out, and they’ll STILL have to catch Atlantic City, or they’ll cancel each other out. So, Buffalo has only a minimal chance to win the FL Atlantic.

All of this means that the Gamblers are probably going to win this division, and should do so easily. The next ten days will really tell the story; Atlantic City could really pull away during this time and make it impossible. The next ten days afterward will be an easy stretch for ATC, also, so even if they don’t, they have to be favored. More on the Buffalo/Hackensack situation will be revealed in the wild card section.

Odds to win the FL Atlantic

Atlantic City 75%
Hackensack 18%
Buffalo 7%