The Drew Zodcast 28.02 and 28.03 Johnson League Previews

[recte44]

Obviously I'd take California's 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, but Vancouver is much deeper, and has more lefties (not to be overlooked).

Glendenning, another dominant lefty closer. Look out Kyle. $13M is a lot, but how many closers are WARing 2.6? That's pretty valuable, but it doesn't mean that much if the rest of the pen can't pass the ball to him. The rest of their pen is VERY mediocre, from this chair.

Then there's the California catcher situation. I just threw up in my mouth a little.

Out of their lineup, I like Labrie Jr., Vazquez, and BFP. That's about it. I totally agree with you on the fact that Ted needs to flip the script here in regards to CH and PH. They should be maximizing contact, gap, speed and defense. They have the latter in reasonably good shape.

[recte44]

Valencia- They are, potentially, a worse team than Jacksonville.

Mariatto- meh.

Jacobs is OK at best. The other three shouldn't be in a rotation.

Manny Vargas is alright. Fernando Lopez is really quite good. The rest? It's not pretty.

Seems like they have a bunch of AAAA types with some power and questionable defense.

I love that they brought Dunn back. I got that warm and fuzzy feeling.

They have some good looking pitching prospects in the system, but several are very far away. Flores isn't ready yet, he'll be eaten alive by lefties right now. Harlan Moore could come straight to the bigs. Otherwise, the cupboard is bare. The Stars are going to have to hit free agency hard over the next couple of years if they want to be relevant, otherwise with Mike, Brett and Ted in this division they are going to be in the cellar for a while.

Dave Wren will be released before the end of May. He's horrible. Such a shame. Look how consistent he was for a decade before the floor dropped out in Birmingham, 2026.

[recte44]

Gonzalez for Tucson lost 21 games last year.

[ae37jr]

Not sure I agree with Brooklyn representing the Johnson this season. I made a few missteps and had several players decline. This is probably the worst Robin team in my short tenure. Luckily the JLA lends me time to figure out plans B and C. Huntsville has to be the team to beat. I'm also pro Vancouver. Their pitching staff isn't great. But as you guys mentioned, when you play 100-110 games in pitchers parks and have solid defense, they will perform great. Yellow Springs would be my dark horse. One more bat may change the complexion of the whole team.

[agrudez]

I disagree, Kyle, Vancouver's rotation is better than Hawaii's in my opinion. You are highly overrating Hawaii's rote. Break it down, you'll see.

In doing the 'cast, I missed that Olivarez might be slipping a little bit. Still, though, I think it breaks down to preference. I get VAN's all STU, no MOV strategy for their park (and the JLP and greater JL overall, too), but they have 3 guys with '6' MOV against LHBs and 2 with '7'. HI has 4 with '7' and 1 with '9'. I'm going to take that every time. Let's break them out 1 for 1 (how I'd personally rank them 1-5) and I'll bold my preference in the matchup.

1. Bautista v. Crow - I'll give this one a push. Ratings wise Crow might have a slight edge, but even his VAN park fueled '27 season was just as good as Bautista's in a neutral park by the peripherals.

2. Nunez v. Correa - I like Correa ratings-wise as a Southpaw, but even in VAN he was underwhelming last year while Nunez looks poised to be an ace.

3. Olivarez v. Hernandez - A 3 point MOV swing between the two against LHBs, should've been an easy guess which way I'd go here.

4. Carter v. Considine - No question whatsoever. An elite knuckleballer with consistent 4 WAR production vs. a habitual underachiever with '6' MOV.

5. Sanchez v. Granados - don't really like either option, but I'm going to go with the Southpaw with '7' MOV over the RHP with '6' MOV every day.

[agrudez]

Out of their lineup, I like Labrie Jr., Vazquez, and BFP. That's about it. I totally agree with you on the fact that Ted needs to flip the script here in regards to CH and PH. They should be maximizing contact, gap, speed and defense. They have the latter in reasonably good shape.

Disagree on emphasizing CON, GAP and defense. For one, both their stadiums (VAN and CAL) depress AVG and XBHs just as much as HRs. For two, having an elite defense is going to have diminishing returns in a stadium that depresses AVG - just like having an elite rotation will as well.

There are only 2 things that aren't impacted by stadium modifiers (either for better or worse): SBs and walks.

Not sure I agree with Brooklyn representing the Johnson this season. I made a few missteps and had several players decline. This is probably the worst Robin team in my short tenure. Luckily the JLA lends me time to figure out plans B and C. Huntsville has to be the team to beat. I'm also pro Vancouver. Their pitching staff isn't great. But as you guys mentioned, when you play 100-110 games in pitchers parks and have solid defense, they will perform great. Yellow Springs would be my dark horse. One more bat may change the complexion of the whole team.

That's some great modesty, but look at your team and then look at HI, VAN, YS, etc. The depth in the lineup, in particular, is really where you shine, imo. VAN and YS have 2 bats in their entire lineup and HI might have 3 or 4 tops. Even HSV without El only gets through 6 slots before we feel really bad about the lineup.

[ae37jr]

That's some great modesty, but look at your team and then look at HI, VAN, YS, etc. The depth in the lineup, in particular, is really where you shine, imo. VAN and YS have 2 bats in their entire lineup and HI might have 3 or 4 tops. Even HSV without El only gets through 6 slots before we feel really bad about the lineup.

I think I got a good team. Should make the playoffs baring catastrophe. But in a short series Vancouver, Huntsville and Yellow Springs will all have my number. Mainly via left handed starters. My righty bats are lacking a bit right now. Sam Adams is the best one and he is mainly a product of Ebbets field. Luckily right handed mashers are easy to find. I'm just not sure where to plug them in or with what prospects I can acquire them with.

[bschr682]

Correa filled out his ratings over the offseason and its showing.

[udlb58]

Should make the playoffs baring catastrophe.

Understatement of the year

[bschr682]

So I maximize stuff rating in my starters and it so happens they mostly have 6 movement (4 fluctuate to 7 every now and then so its high 6's by the way) and its a cheap strategy? So if you play in a hitters park and maximize power rating that's pretty cheap too eh? Or if your park favors LHB its pretty cheap to collect lefty bats then too?

[agrudez]

Yeah, like I said, there ARE ways to be exploitative with your stadium and roster, but it's not what you're doing. I think he might have just misspoke at the start.

[Ted]

If anyone would like to trade me a bunch of high OBP basestealers, I'd be happy to listen. What's that? Crickets (No, not the CRICKET?) Okay then. I'll continue to make due with what I have and the stuff that hits FA.

I do agree with Kyle though, high con guys get nerfed just as much as homer guys here.

[bschr682]

Yeah, like I said, there ARE ways to be exploitative with your stadium and roster, but it's not what you're doing. I think he might have just misspoke at the start.

I mostly figured that and i did catch in the podcast that you mentioned that but I thought id get bent out of shape anyway. HAH.

A couple actual critiques about my team. Some of the guys on the team were there (or in the system) before the park change so that explains a few of the guys in question. Also we nerf all hitters big time of course but RHB less extremely. So right handed power (at least compared to lefty power) actually is a good idea in this park. Granados contract was originally a bit of a poison pill in hopes it wouldn't get matched so that's why he makes so much. And as mentioned above 4 of the 5 starters have flashed that 7 mov so its not quite as bad as it looks at first glance.

And Adam, I beat the hell out of Brooklyn just last season in the very same playoff round you predicted we will meet at this year. What has changed to make you think they will beat me this time?

[RonCo]

Great discussions as always.

The real issue with Baca being out there in RF is that we don't really have a great outfielder to put out there in his place right now. I suppose we could run Medina out there. But then we would just be accused of trying to prop up the bet. [grin] (Medina got 150 fewer AB under my guidance than under Matt's. He got a few at CF early in the year only because he bumped his range in ST, and then he got several weeks of fulltime starting when Gonzales got hurt. Otherwise he was mostly a platoon guy and a backup option. Which is hat he's doing now.

Baca has been poor in the field, but, but semi-serviceable. We'll be looking for a RF in the near future. If we can find one, Baca will go to DH, and Campos will go catch again.

We spent most of our off season pursuing other lost opportunities to improve a couple other positions, though, and got caught out.

[ae37jr]

And Adam, I beat the hell out of Brooklyn just last season in the very same playoff round you predicted we will meet at this year. What has changed to make you think they will beat me this time?

I know this wasn't directed at me but I feel the need to defend my squad and further intensify a likely playoff matchup. It was a short sample. Brooklyn had the better regular season H2H and are leading the 2028 series 2-1 also.

[Chey]

Yeah, like I said, there ARE ways to be exploitative with your stadium and roster, but it's not what you're doing. I think he might have just misspoke at the start.

I mostly figured that and i did catch in the podcast that you mentioned that but I thought id get bent out of shape anyway. HAH.

A couple actual critiques about my team. Some of the guys on the team were there (or in the system) before the park change so that explains a few of the guys in question. Also we nerf all hitters big time of course but RHB less extremely. So right handed power (at least compared to lefty power) actually is a good idea in this park. Granados contract was originally a bit of a poison pill in hopes it wouldn't get matched so that's why he makes so much. And as mentioned above 4 of the 5 starters have flashed that 7 mov so its not quite as bad as it looks at first glance.

And Adam, I beat the hell out of Brooklyn just last season in the very same playoff round you predicted we will meet at this year. What has changed to make you think they will beat me this time?

The stadium thing was a bit of a misstep on my part. I didn't mean to imply that what you were doing was "wrong", or that it shouldn't be allowed or even discouraged. Rather, it feels cheap *to me*, in the sense that I wouldn't want to do it myself - when I built Estadia Nacional in Havana, I did straight 1s across the board. There's nothing wrong with what you're doing on an objective level, it's just not for me.

re: Granados -- the poison pill thing makes sense but, like, you still did the deal. If the pill poisons you as well...

re: Brooklyn: You beat them last year, would you have beaten them in a best of 100 series? I don't think so. Anything can happen in a playoff series, but I think Brooklyn has the slight edge. Watch, now you'll win it all and Brooklyn will miss the wildcard.

[7teen]

I honestly never listen to these mainly due to time restrictions at home. However, I just bought me a new (newer for me anyway) car that has usb access for a phone. One of things I intend to do is get these podcasts to listen to on some of my drives.

Not sure what says more pathetic about my life: The fact I'm driving a car that's 13 years old and doesn't have access to a phone input or the fact I intend to listen to fake baseball podcasts on my drives

[recte44]

Chomping at the bit for the Frick one!

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[agrudez]

Chomping at the bit for the Frick one!

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Cribs notes: screw Las vegas.

[recte44]

Nice

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