FL Wild Card Preview - VERSION II

[aaronweiner]

We can safely say that last sim settled absolutely nothing. In fact, while the favored Las Vegas Hustlers did technically gain the wild card lead, it's by half a game over Buffalo, and a a game and a half over Calgary and Hackensack. Unlike 1996, when the fourth-place team in this same sort of equation got hot in the last week to win the wild card outright, this year it's about as clear as mud.

This is also the last playoff spot available, as all the divisions are all but wrapped up, barring some complete collapse by Atlantic City; in theory this would put them out of the playoffs, in actuality it probably won't happen (less than 1% to outright lose a 5-game lead with nine to play).

So, let's take a final look at the wild card - it's really anyone's game.

Current standings:

Las Vegas Hustlers 83 71 .539 -
Buffalo Bison 82 71 .536 ½
Hackensack Bulls 81 72 .529 1½
Calgary Marauders 81 72 .529 1½

Team Schedules


Las Vegas Hustlers

Games left: 8
Games left against contenders: 5 (Seattle three, Calgary two)
Games left against sub-.500 teams: 3 (Long Beach three)

Buffalo Bison

Games left: 9
Games left against contenders: 7 (Hackensack four, Atlantic City three)
Games left against sub-.500 teams: 2 (Montreal two)

Hackensack Bulls

Games left: 9
Games left against contenders: 6 (Buffalo four, Atlantic City two)
Games left against sub-.500 teams: 3 (Montreal three)

Calgary Marauders

Games left: 9
Games left against contenders: 12 (Las Vegas two, Seattle three)
Games left against sub-.500 teams: 6 (Long Beach four)


Key Series Down the Stretch (chronological order)

Calgary at Las Vegas, September 21-22
TIVO rating: 95

Calgary has won the first two games of this series, and the next two are absolutely crucial. Not only is a split in the next two necessary for Calgary to keep their previously fleeting wild card hopes alive, but winning one of these two will put a serious damper on Vegas' ability to pull away in the wild card race. Schellenbarger and Stoller are scheduled for Vegas (ya know they're famous when we don't need a first name) against VanLandingham and rookie Francis Linares; the Marauders beat Madorin soundly in the series.


Buffalo at Montreal, September 21-22:

TIVO rating: 0

Definitely don't watch these games. However, Buffalo, who has swept the first two games of this four-game set, need basically ALL of them to make certain they keep pace with the Hustlers.


September 23-25, Buffalo at Atlantic City
TIVO rating: 80

If Buffalo has been winning games up until this point, it’ll be their last chance to gain ground directly on the Gamblers. If they haven’t, it’s their chance to play spoiler.


September 23-25, Seattle at Calgary, three games
TIVO rating: 50

Seattle will probably throw the brunt of their rotation at Calgary - not that there's really such a thing, on the Storm - and while they'll be facing what's left of the Marauders' top starters, a hot baseball team is a hot baseball team. It'll be interesting to watch at any rate.


September 26-29, Hackensack at Buffalo
TIVO rating: 100

This one's going to be very interesting, potentially. This could be the series that wins it not for the Bison, not for the Bulls, but for the Hustlers or Marauders. A split in this series could be deadly for BOTH teams. Actually, this is the KEYSTONE wild card series; one team winning surely eliminates the other, and a split can eliminate both. Potentially must-see TV.

September 27-29, Las Vegas at Seattle
TIVO rating: 70

It largely depends in this series whether or not the Storm have reset their rotation for the playoffs. If they’re going full steam ahead, this series could put a major dent in Vegas’ chances to win the wild card. Still, the Storm's offense is at gale force wind power, so Vegas might lose this series anyway. Goes on at the same time as the Hackensack/Buffalo series, so if Vegas loses the series - or gets swept - this could comprise a MAJOR choke.

Long Beach at Calgary, September 26-29
TIVO rating: 55

If Calgary has been pasted by this point - five games against Seattle and Vegas could do that before they ever get to this series - simply cancel your recording. However, if they have not...a sweep of Long Beach could propel them into the playoffs, solo.

September 26-29, Birmingham at Austin
TIVO rating: -5

Um, not THIS year.


Analysis of FL Wild Card

Well, Vegas looked like they were about to pull away - and then lost two straight to Calgary. Not cheap losses either; Calgary slammed four runs on Rene Arocha in the first game, who hadn't been scored on in September, and chased Johnny Madorin after five innings. So, a lot of uncertainty has descended on the race, right?

Yes and no. It's not as if we had Vegas as clear, outright favorites before this last sim. More and more, it appears we may begin going to a one-game playoff to determine the winner of the FL wild card this season. Any one-game playoff would almost certainly favor the Hustlers, but we're pretty much uncertain as to WHAT might happen down the stretch this year.

Here's what we do know:

What we DO know is that Vegas took care of business against the so-called "dangerous" Austin and Birmingham series; they went 5-1 against the two former powerhouses. They're favored to win each of the next two games against Calgary; we think if they DO win the two games, they're almost a lock to at least appear in a one-game playoff. If they split? Still favored. If they lose both? Calgary takes over the outright wild card lead, or Buffalo does, and we've got a heavy-duty race down the stretch.

Calgary's offense, as we suspected, got hot; they've won eight of their last ten as a result. If they can pound Las Vegas' OTHER two aces, they might become the favorites; they've got the best run differential of anyone in this race other than Vegas, and if things were "fair," they might have already wrapped it up. We've underestimated Calgary all year long; the time has come for them to prove us wrong.

Hackensack and Buffalo have exactly the same problem: they play each other in a four-game set. Hackensack is fading fast; however, the return of John Ross Riles could provide a boost. Hackensack remains a team you definitely don't want to face in a one-game playoff.

Really, it'll depend on the next two days, so I'm going to give THREE sets of odds for this one.

Odds to win the FL Wild Card:

If Las Vegas wins both against Calgary

Las Vegas 70%
Buffalo/Hackensack/playoff 30% - Calgary's basically done.

If Las Vegas splits against Calgary

Las Vegas 50%
Field + playoff 50%

If Las Vegas loses both to Calgary

Calgary 22%
Las Vegas 22%
Buffalo 22%
Hackensack 16%
Some sort of playoff (could be three teams!) 20%

[LambeauLeap]

"September 26-29, Birmingham at Austin
TIVO rating: -5

Um, not THIS year."

I had a winning record in my last sim ya jackarse!!

[KCCardinalFan]

This when it would have been nice to have Plemel. Hopefully Linares has another gem in him.

[aaronweiner]

Trust me, if you're winning this series, it's not because you're getting an heroic pitching performance. It's because you pound the crap out of the Vegas pitching.

[KCCardinalFan]

Trust me, if you're winning this series, it's not because you're getting an heroic pitching performance. It's because you pound the crap out of the Vegas pitching.

No argument there.

[KCCardinalFan]

Sweet!! Got the sweep scoring 15 runs over the last two games, you called it Aaron. Lynchy! Bring it on!