JL Wild Card Preview - VERSION II

[aaronweiner]

Well, that's so much clearer now. NOT. We now have a ridiculous five teams separated by two games eligible for three playoff spots (Greenville, two games ahead of Baltimore, is not listed.) Owner, fan, player and television interest has never been higher. Even the birds are watching with binoculars.

What's better is that a lot of these guys play each other. This will be a ridiculously tough race to call, and we might just decide to NOT call it.


Current standings:

Greenville 'Shiners 81 72 .529 - Currently leading JL Atlantic over Baltimore by two games (more in the JL Atlantic review)
Valencia Stars 80 73 .523 - Currently tied for JL Pacific
Hawaii Tropics 80 73 .523 - Currently tied for JL Pacific
California Crusaders 80 74 .519 ½
Chicago Black Sox 79 74 .516 1
Baltimore Monarchs 79 74 .516 1



Team Schedules


Greenville Moonshiners

Games left: 9

Games left against contenders: 4 (Baltimore)

Games left against sub-.500 teams: 5 (Washington three, Louisville two)


Valencia Stars

Games left: 9

Games left against contenders: 7 (Hawaii four, California three)

Games left against sub-.500 teams: 2 (Vancouver)



Hawaii Tropics

Games left: 9

Games left against contenders: 6 (Valencia four, California two)

Games left against sub-.500 teams: 3 (Vancouver)



Chicago Black Sox

Games left: 9

Games left against contenders: 2 (Madison)

Games left against sub-.500 teams: 7 (Phoenix four, Omaha three)



California Crusaders

Games left: 8

Games left against contenders: 5 (Hawaii two, Valencia three)

Games left against sub-.500 teams: 3 (Vancouver)


Baltimore Monarchs

Games left: 9

Games left against contenders: 4 (Greenville)

Games left against sub-.500 teams: 5 (Washington two, Louisville three)


Again, too many important series to count...honestly, they're all important with a virtual five-way tie.


JL Wild Card Analysis

Fundamentally, though, with FIVE teams within a game of each other with eight games to go, the permutations really do favor a playoff more than any other scenario. We still think the Black Sox could get hot and blow through Omaha and Phoenix, the two worst teams in the JL, and win one of two against Madison, some kind of 7-2 thing and win outright. In an ironic twist, Chicago controls their own destiny.

California, who we touted last time, also asserted themselves and proved us slightly prophetic; the Crusaders used their series against Omaha and their series win against Madison to springboard up to a half game back of Valencia and Hawaii and make themselves an important part of the race.

However, we're hardly convinced that anyone has the schedule or the chops to win this thing outright without ALSO winning a division, and it's possible that Chicago doesn't have the horses to make that kind of a late season run. Still, we have to give Chicago the best shot because their strength of schedule is far less than anyone else's. The East teams are next. The West teams have the hardest road.

We here are wondering what the scenario is if we have a four or five way tie for the wild card and ties for the Atlantic and Pacific also with some teams being part of that mix. It COULD happen.


Odds to win the JL Wild Card

Some kind of playoff 60%

Winning outright:

Chicago 10%
Valencia 7%
Hawaii 7%
California 7%
Baltimore 7%
Greenville 2%