FL Wild Card Preview

[aaronweiner]

At this point, Calgary, the reigning wild card champions, are in the hunt but have to be considered a long shot to repeat their title. So, who’s likely to win the wild card in the FL this season?

Hackensack is ahead in the race by a game over Las Vegas and a game and a half over Buffalo. Calgary, while four and a half games back, will have to get very hot over the last 18 games to overtake all four teams and do so without #1 starter Lee Plemel, who was injured last week. However: Calgary has games against ALL of the wild card contenders, so if they get hot they could theoretically win this thing.

Atlantic City is the fifth team, but we’re not really going to bother talking about them here except to say that if some team does rise up and win the FL Atlantic, ATC has to be considered the favorite for the wild card. We’re also not going to bother with Birmingham, since their team has been absolutely blasted this year and at six games back, they would have virtually no chance to win with a fully healthy team.


Team Schedules


Hackensack Bulls (79-66, FL Wild card leader)

Games left: 17
Games left against contenders: 13 (Buffalo six, Atlantic City four, Calgary three)
Games left against sub-.500 teams: 4 (Montreal three, Long Beach one)

Las Vegas Hustlers (78-67, 1 game back)

Games left: 17
Games left against contenders: 9 (Seattle five, Calgary four)
Games left against sub-.500 teams: 3 (Long Beach three)
Games left against DANGEROUS teams: 5 (Austin two, Birmingham three)

Buffalo Bison (77-67, 1.5 games back)

Games left: 18
Games left against contenders: 11 (Hackensack six, Atlantic City three, Calgary two)
Games left against sub-.500 teams: 7 (Montreal four, Long Beach three)

Calgary Marauders (74-70, 4.5 games back)

Games left: 18
Games left against contenders: 12 (Las Vegas four, Hackensack three, Buffalo two, Seattle three)
Games left against sub-.500 teams: 6 (Long Beach six)

Key Series Down the Stretch (chronological order)

Calgary at Buffalo, September 11-12

TIVO rating: 80
This series may have the effect of helping out one team or the other. Calgary will have to win at least three of their next five to stay relevant in the wild card discussion, so sweeping this series would go a long way towards this goal. Buffalo really needs both games here so that the games against Hackensack aren’t quite as crucial. Neither team seems to have the pitching advantage in this one.

Hackensack at Calgary, September 13-15
TIVO rating: 65
This series has some wild card importance, especially for Calgary, but the Bulls will really need to win this series to keep close to Atlantic City and possibly keep ahead of Vegas.

Birmingham at Las Vegas, September 13-15
TIVO rating: 40
This may not seem like an important series on the surface, but the Hustlers are just 3-6 against Birmingham this year. These are the kinds of games that Vegas has to win if they’re going to take it down the stretch. Fortunately for them, it looks like they’ll get JP Morgan and Eric Desoto in the first two games.

September 19-22: Hackensack at Atlantic City, four games
TIVO rating: 90
Atlantic City has five games against New Orleans and Montreal before this one while Hackensack, already two games back, has to play contenders Calgary and Buffalo. So, it’s possible that Hackensack could be four or five games back when the two teams play a four-game set. If Atlantic City wins this series, it’s possible that it will end the race early.

September 23-25, Buffalo at Atlantic City
TIVO rating: 80

If Buffalo has been winning games up until this point, it’ll be their last chance to gain ground directly on the Gamblers. If they haven’t, it’s their chance to play spoiler.

September 26-29, Hackensack at Buffalo
TIVO rating: 70

This one could theoretically determine the division winner, but it also has huge wild card ramifications. Both teams have interesting schedules and could both be out of it at this point unless one team asserts themselves in a big way.

September 27-29, Las Vegas at Seattle
TIVO rating: 50

It largely depends in this series whether or not the Marauders have rest their rotation for the playoffs. If they’re going full steam ahead, this series could put a major dent in Vegas’ chances to win the wild card.


Analysis of FL Wild Card

Something’s gotta give this season, as Hackensack and Vegas can only both make the playoffs if Hackensack overtakes Atlantic City for the FL Atlantic, an unlikely possibility given the two teams’ respective schedules. Either team missing the playoffs would have to be a massive disappointment for their respective franchises, as Vegas seemed loaded and Hackensack has won three straight FL Atlantic titles. The disappointment would also be huge in Buffalo, who has had two straight near-misses and would be bitterly disappointed with another. Would anyone be happy rather than relieved? Yes: Calgary went into the season with lowered expectations, so last year’s wild card would be thrilled to make it.

On pure stats alone, we’d have to give it to the Hustlers, who rank second in ERA, first in OBP and third in runs scored. We’re still sort of shocked that the Hustlers aren’t in a better position. Vegas technically has an easier schedule than both Hackensack and Buffalo, also, though most of their “sub-.500” games are against dangerous teams like Birmingham and Austin, which actually makes their strength of schedule stronger than Buffalo – though not quite as difficult as Hackensack. Losing Monty Lynch at this point in the season won’t help, either.

Hackensack might not have the staying power without Ron Burgundy and a few without Riles, either, and if Riles has any rust from his illness they might as well just make vacation plans for October. Hackensack’s bullpen is still spectacular (a FL-leading 3.13 ERA) but going without their #1 and #2 starters, even with an amazing season from Williamson Prushnok, who might win and deserve the Steve Nebraska without striking out as many as 110 batters.

The Bison are clearly the “worst” team in this conversation as well, but they’re only a half game in back of Vegas. With no legitimate offensive leader and a relatively shaky bullpen and down #3 starter Dave Blain, the Bison have mediocre written all over them. Plus, as we mentioned, the Bison have a really good chance to come back; Buffalo has seven games they could sweep against Long Beach and Montreal, and of the remaining eleven, the Bison have a legitimate shot to win five, six or seven of them. That would make them a potential 12 or 13 wins down the stretch against five or six losses, which might put them in a playoff at worst.

Calgary probably won’t make it without Lee Plemel, but we’re obligated to mention them and they have a nice chance to play spoiler down the stretch. If they get really hot offensively they might have a shot.

If Vegas had a one-game lead at this point, we’d consider this one cut and dried, but since Hackensack still has a slim margin...


Odds to win the FL Wild Card:

Las Vegas 40%
Hackensack 32%
One-game playoff 15%
Buffalo 10%
Calgary 3%

[KCCardinalFan]

There were too many teams to jump, but Plemel going down sucks bad. Hopefully his talents won't lump in the process.

[aaronweiner]

Well, I may have some good news for you in a minute...

[KCCardinalFan]

Holy S#!t, look at that race! I haven't dove into the stats yet, but it looks like my offense got hot!

[cheekimonk]

Man, my team is the walking wounded. Swept @Calgary pretty much did us in.

[aaronweiner]

I'm probably gonna update these tomorrow to represent the new stuff...and at least I don't have to write about the FL Atlantic anymore.

It's safe to say that NOTHING else is decided this year. It should be fun at any rate.

[KCCardinalFan]

I'm probably gonna update these tomorrow to represent the new stuff...and at least I don't have to write about the FL Atlantic anymore.

It's safe to say that NOTHING else is decided this year. It should be fun at any rate.

Two amazing wildcard races this season. I love reading these write-ups, thanks for all the effort!!