JL Wild Card Preview

[aaronweiner]

The JL Wild Card is really an interesting race this year, but the most interesting thing about it is the homogenous nature of the race: most teams will mostly play each other down the stretch. What’s more interesting is that not every team who’s IN the race is really in the race because of just how often the teams play one another. The exception is Chicago (more later), who plays NONE of them.

Let's take a closer look; we'll have plenty to say later.


Team Schedules


Chicago Black Sox (76-69, tied for wild card lead)

Games left: 17

Games left against contenders: 4 (Madison four)

Games left against sub-.500 teams: 13 (Phoenix six, Omaha three, Louisville three, Washington one)


Valencia Stars (77-68, first, JL Pacific, one ahead of Chicago)

Games left: 17

Games left against contenders: 13 (Hawaii six, California three, Baltimore three, Greenville two)

Games left against sub-.500 teams: 4 (Vancouver four)



Hawaii Tropics (76-69, tied for wild card lead)

Games left: 17

Games left against contenders: 14 (Greenville six, California four, Greenville three, Baltimore one)

Games left against sub-.500 teams: 3 (Vancouver three)



Greenville Moonshiners (75-69, first, JL Atlantic, tied for the wild card)

Games left: 18

Games left against contenders: 11 (Greenville six, Hawaii three, Valencia two)

Games left against sub-.500 teams: 7 (Washington three, Louisville four)


California Crusaders (75-71, 1.5 games back)

Games left: 16

Games left against contenders: 8 (Hawaii four, Valencia three, Madison one)

Games left against sub-.500 teams: 8 (Vancouver five, Omaha three)


Baltimore Monarchs (73-72, 2.5 games back, JL Atlantic)

Games left: 17

Games left against contenders: 10 (Greenville six, Valencia three, Hawaii one)

Games left against sub-.500 teams: 7 (Washington four, Louisville three)


JL Wild Card Analysis

The team that basically controls their own destiny through all of this is Chicago, who as mentioned before plays NONE of the other wild card contenders down the stretch and therefore can’t be bumped by any of them. In fact, the ONLY games they play against winning teams is a four game set at uber-scary Madison. Since they’re already tied for the lead, can watch the other wild card contenders beat the crap out of each other AND play thirteen games of their last seventeen against teams with losing records, it would be a really nasty shocker and brutally disappointing if they finished with worse than a tie for the wild card lead.

The REAL key to picking Chicago, however, is that unlike every other team in this race, they can’t win a division. That’s the big thing: any other team that gets hot over the course of the next two weeks is likely to win their division, because Greenville plays Baltimore six times, and if one side gets hot, the other side drops out. Same thing with the JL Pacific; Hawaii is tied with Chicago for the wild card lead, but they have to play California, Greenville, Baltimore and Valencia for MOST of their games.

We’re going to go so far as to say that this scenario is a virtual lock, barring massive calamity, brutal injury issues or an extremely contagious superflu hitting the Windy City. So, the question becomes, who, if anyone, do we think has a reasonable chance to tie Chicago, who we’re putting up as a MAJOR favorite, in this race?

Actually, we do: California. There’s a reasonable chance that California, who has a lot of games against Omaha and Vancouver, might be able to climb back from a game and a half back if they get very hot; it is possible, in other words, that they could tie the Black Sox and still lose to Valencia or Hawaii. It is possible that Hawaii and Valencia both get hot at the same time other than their head-to-heads. It is possible that the Stars and Tropics both get passed by California but one of them wins enough to take the wild card.
Technically, either Greenville or Baltimore could do the same, but it’s unlikely to happen; they’re just not positioned correctly. Baltimore’s a good enough team to get very hot, but we’ll believe it when we see it.

Instead, what we’re really looking at is a potential Chicago stumble, and we don’t see it happening; they’ve got SIX games against Phoenix, and they should win at least four or five of them. Those extra wins will offset the fact that they play a few “dangerous” teams; four against Washington and Louisville, three against Omaha – and four against Madison, who might be (and probably should be) mailing it in at this point. We like the Black Sox to go back to the playoffs after a one-year hiatus.


Odds to win the JL Wild Card

Chicago 50%
One-game playoff 20%
California or Hawaii or Valencia 20%
Greenville or Baltimore 10%

[aaronweiner]

And, yes, the question is logical: What would Chicago have done this year without the least active owner in the league?

Aaron

[LambeauLeap]

All are excellent work Aaron - thanks for writing them up!

Chicago has an owner??

[elligator]

We'll try to do our part to make it close!