JL Pacific Stretch Run Preview

[aaronweiner]

Like in the Atlantic Division, Valencia and Hawaii will play each other six times down the stretch. However, in this situation, the head to head matchup might be bigger than in the Atlantic Division, because Hawaii and Valencia are both jockeying for position with Chicago. If Greenville loses the Atlantic, there’s very little chance that either Greenville or Baltimore would win the wild card. However, there’s a lot more at stake out west.

And, like in the Atlantic, both teams have played to a virtual dead heat this year: Hawaii leads the season series 7-6, and there’s really no reason why we should expect anything but a split between these two teams – but that’s why they play the games. The two teams carry different models; Valencia is a pitching-heavy team with a poor offense, while the Tropics are extremely balanced on all parts of the diamond.

Don’t count out California, either. They’re three games back, which is a lot to be behind two teams at this point, but half their games are against Vancouver and Omaha and they, not Valencia, currently have the #1 pitching staff in the JL; plus, if Pythagorean records were real games, they’d be in first.

It’s actually just a relief to HAVE a race in the JL Pacific for a change; Valencia has won this division by double digits in each of the past two seasons and three straight times overall. Hawaii has never been this close; their best finish was in 1996, finishing 17 games back of a 99-win Valencia team. Let’s see how this one plays out.


Team Schedules


Valencia Stars (77-68, first, JL Pacific)

Games left: 17

Games left against contenders: 13 (Hawaii six, California three, Baltimore three, Greenville two)

Games left against sub-.500 teams: 4 (Vancouver four)


Hawaii Tropics (76-69, 1 game back)

Games left: 17

Games left against contenders: 14 (Greenville six, California four, Greenville three, Baltimore one)

Games left against sub-.500 teams: 3 (Vancouver three)


California Crusaders (75-71, 3 games back)

Games left: 16

Games left against contenders: 8 (Hawaii four, Valencia three, Madison one)

Games left against sub-.500 teams: 8 (Vancouver five, Omaha three)


Key Series: Again, basically ALL of them.


Analysis of JL Pacific


Let’s get right down to the nitty gritty – what’s going to determine the fate of this race is pretty obvious. It’s the Vancouver Mounties.

Huh?

Well, every single one of these teams plays Vancouver at least three times. Other than that, they’re largely playing contenders or each other; sure, the games against one another matter, but what’s REALLY going to matter is, for example, if California can win four of five against Vancouver, or if Valencia or Hawaii gets a sweep. Unless they lay a gigantic egg against one another that’s pretty much what will determine the fate of these teams.

More importantly: Vancouver can basically END California’s season by going a meager 3-2 against the Crusaders. California has, by far, the easier schedule; other than their one game against juggernaut Madison, they’ve got seven games where they can directly pick up ground and eight games against noncontenders.

Valencia leads the season series against both California and Hawaii, but the difference is negligible in all cases. Valencia is ahead of Hawaii by a 9-7 count; California is 9-10 against Valencia and 8-10 against Hawaii. However, both Cal and Hawaii have been better against Valencia later in the season.

And, for good measure: Vancouver is 7-11 against Hawaii, 9-9 against Valencia and 9-8 against California – and Vancouver seems only too happy to play spoiler.

In other words, it’s hard to say exactly how this is going to go. Here's our best guess...


Odds to win the JL Pacific


Valencia 40%
Hawaii 35%
California 25%