JL Atlantic Stretch Run Preview

[aaronweiner]

Unlike last year, when the JL Atlantic featured not two, but four winning teams and a three-team race between three 95-game winners that came down to the final week, this year’s race is a little more cut and dried. Louisville has dropped out of the race altogether, nine games under .500 and tied with Washington at seven and a half games back. The other two teams in the division, Greenville and Baltimore, are unlikely to win 90 games this season barring a major late-season surge. Baltimore, specifically, is just a game above .500 this year.

So, while this race will likely come down to the wire, it doesn’t bear the same exact intrigue as last season, when it was presumed that one of the two teams from the FL Atlantic would absolutely make the championship series (and Baltimore lived up to that billing). Happily, there will be quite a bit of excitement in this one, as the two teams play six times over the last month, including a huge series in the last four games of the year.

Also important: as last year, the runner-up in this race has a shot at the wild card, though the fact that a third of their games will be against each other might cancel that possibility out, meaning the division title is for all the marbles.

Team Schedules

Greenville Moonshiners (75-69, first, JL Atlantic)

Games left: 18
Games left against contenders: 11 (Greenville six, Hawaii three, Valencia two)
Games left against DANGEROUS teams: 7 (Washington three, Louisville four)

Baltimore Monarchs (73-72, 2.5 games back, JL Atlantic)

Games left: 17
Games left against contenders: 10 (Greenville six, Valencia three, Hawaii one)
Games left against DANGEROUS teams: 7 (Washington four, Louisville three)


Key Series: They’re ALL key series. Did you see these schedules?


Analysis of JL Atlantic Race

Wow. We’re pretty sure that nobody on earth wants these schedules down the stretch. In fact, we’re willing to state that these teams are probably quaking in their boots thinking of all the possibilities of taking on this kind of schedule. This is actually the kind of schedule where you’re eternally grateful for two things: a three game lead in the loss column and the fact that your OPPONENT’S schedule isn’t any easier.

In case you’re looking for an edge in the six head-to-head matchups, don’t bother: the two teams have played to a dead heat so far, 8-8 in sixteen games and fairly consistently even run totals. Baltimore was swept by Greenville in their last series, in early August, accounting for the entire difference between the two teams in the standings.
Common opponents: Baltimore and Greenville have identical records against Washington (11-7); Baltimore is just 4-6 in their last ten games against the Bobwhites; Greenville is 2-5 in their last two series. Advantage: nobody. Against Louisville, Greenville is 9-8, Baltimore 9-9. Advantage, nobody. Valencia: Greenville is 3-7, Baltimore 6-3; potential advantage, Baltimore. Hawaii: Greenville is 4-5, Baltimore (who has only one more game against the Tropics), 6-5. Advantage: nobody.

Pythagorean records? They favor Baltimore; Baltimore is -6, while Greenville is +3! So, if Pyth records held up, Baltimore would have a six-game lead and we wouldn’t have bothered writing this.

In other words, this one is absolutely too tough to call early. Almost anything could happen. However, again, a two and a half game lead is a big one at this point in the season, so…

Odds to Win the JL Atlantic
Greenville 65%
Baltimore 25%
One-game playoff: 10%