
Bottom line, the calculation should be using "Revenue Projections" as circled for its baseline, but is instead using the owner's budget (which you can find on the accounting page). So that means the calculation can be off by as much as $1-$2M (or considerably less), depending. In my case, for this sim, it was about $96K off. But that error will change sim-by-sim.
With luck this will be cleaned up in v26.