2062.69 Doubleday Considerations

[Krathan]

These are things I am thinking about as I prepare for the Doubleday Series against Montreal.

THE STARTING ROTATION:

So, here's the situation. I have several pitchers who could potentially start games for me in this series, but I need to choose the 4 that give me the best chance to win.

Who are the candidates?

RHP Bob Anderson (70/70) 11-9, 4.97, 2.6 WAR, 99 FIP- (1-1, 7.46, 0 WAR, 127 FIP- in 5 starts for Charlotte)

RHP Buwono Mainaky (60/60) 15-9, 3.07, 3.9 WAR, 147 ERA+ (2-3, 5.40 in September)

RHP Jacquot Natta (70/70) 14-8, 3.46, 4.3 WAR, 79 FIP- (Injured September 5-has not [pitched in more than a month)

RHP Arturo Trevino (11-10, 4.38, 2.9 WAR, 93 FIP- (6-3, 3.72 100 FIP- in 20 games for Charlotte) (3-0, 1.47 in 7 games, 5 starts in September)

LHP Ignacio Lewis (55/65) 13-8, 4.17, 2.1 WAR, 102 FIP- (4-4, 6.89 in 11 starts since August)

RHP Brody Picot (45/45) 7-8, 5.27, 0.9 WAR, 112 FIP- (6-3, 6.17, 137 FIP- for Charlotte)

What am I thinking about?

Picot is not going to make the postseason roster so he will clearly not be starting any games.

Lewis is an interesting one. He was fantastic through July, with a 3.05 ERA, but struggled mightily down the stretch. However, 2 of his last 3 starts were Quality Starts and Montreal has a .507 win% vs. LHP as opposed to a .642 win% vs. RHP. However, in 3 appearances against the Blazers this year, Lewis allowed 14 runs in 13 innings. I'm going to put Lewis in the bullpen as a long relief/emergency starter role.

Bandit's injury makes things complicated. If he was healthy, I would absolutely start him in either game 1 or game 2. Unfortunately, I have no idea how he is going to perform after sitting out for a month. I am debating whether to start him in game 3 or game 4. If he starts game 3 then he would also be in line to start game 7. If game 4 goes poorly due to rest, maybe he's better in game 7, or maybe he's just as bad. I don't think I can take that chance, so I think I have to throw Natta in game 4 and hope that he gets more reps in the Cartwright.

Arturo Trevino's recent performance makes the decision about Bandit easier. Trevino was fantastic in September and that gives me confidence putting him in position to pitch twice in the series if necessary. Do I want him pitching game 7? Maybe so. His September start against Montreal was a masterclass. He allowed 1 hits and 1 walk, striking out 8 in 7 innings. The downside is that his postseason record is not particularly glowing. He is 1-2, 8.10 in 4 games/3 starts.

Now the choice comes down to Mainaky vs. Anderson for the 1-5 and 2-6 slots. Anderson has started 10 postseason games in his career. They haven't been pretty either. He is 2-4 with a 5.33 ERA in those starts. Mainaky has pitched in 8 postseason games, starting 7. He is 1-2 with a 5.20 ERA in those games. He had a 2.45 ERA in his first 3 postseason appearances but struggled in 2060. Neither pitcher was very good in September. Mainaky has 3 starts against Montreal this season. He went 1-2 in those games but did complete 2 quality starts.
Anderson only faced the Blazers twice, picking up 2 losses. He struggled mightily in one game but finished 1 out away from a quality start in the other.

I think I'm going with Mainaky in games 1 and 5 and Anderson in games 2 and 6. It's kind of a tossup for me but they are the two guys on this list with the most experience. They both have the talent to shut down an opponent and I hope they can put it together here now that they have had some time to rest. I'm going with Mainaky in the opener because of his history with the team. That gives me a little higher level of trust than I have with Anderson.


THE BULLPEN:

Josh Dougherty (4-2, 44 SV, 2.89), Eduardo Moreno (0-1 2.89 with CHA), and Luis Perez (1-2, 2 SV, 2.49 with CHA) are currently set as my closer and setup men. They will remain in those roles in the postseason.
I already mentioned that Ignacio Lewis will be in a long relief role.
Southpaw Jose Gonzalez came up late in the season and pitched extremely well. In 12 appearances, he held his opponent scoreless in 9. He allowed 2 runs, 1 earned, and 1 unearned in 2 others. However, he did allow 4 runs in 0.1 inning in Montreal on September 20, easily the worst appearance of his young career. He will be on the roster.
Takiji Takahashi was solid and steady and will be on the roster. ( 5-1, 3.18)
Ron Madden pitched well this year and makes the roster. (5-4, 3.43)
Antonio Santiago is another solid lefty on the roster. (7-4 2 SV, 4.55)

The final bullpen spot is between Rule 5 pickup RHP Ghumer Angara (5-2, 5.01 but 1-1, 2.45 in September) and LHP Tsuyoshi Mori (0-0, 3.63 in 11 games, 17.1 IP with CHA)

THE LINEUP:

LF Tony Villa solidified his position on the postseason roster by putting up 2.6 WAR in just 56 games after being called up in late July. His .403 OPB (.391 as a leadoff hitter) has cemented him in the top spot in the lineup despite the fact that he is a poor baserunner.

CF Jose Bedreddin just put up 5.3 WAR, adding excellent defense (7.6 ZR) to an already fantastic offensive presence. His 33 HR and 113 RBI will bat 2nd.

2B Domingo Chavez is likely to just miss out on the Rookie of the Year and Silk MVP awards despite posting a franchise record for WAR in his debut season. He will bat 3rd as the team leader in Avg. (325) RBI (122), and WAR (6.9).

3B/SP/DH Jacquot Natta will bat cleanup as he tries to overcome the rust he may have accumulated having missed the last month due to injury.

The next few spots may vary somewhat, but 1B Ben Graybill (25 HR), DH/RF Jorge Trujillo (130 wRC+), C Lawrence Stewart (4.3 WAR), RF Jose Vargas (66 SB), and SS Loo Yang (12 HR) will likely start most games.

Wani Matos (118 wRC+) will start at 3B when Natta pitches. 1B Dallas Dixon will also likely get important at bats during the series.

The rest of the roster will consist of backup catcher Reynaldo Fernandez, backup infielder Jose Villa, and backup outfielder Onan Ogun.

I have decided that when Bandit pitches, I'm going to have Jose Vargas go to the bench and let Jorge Trujillo start in RF. Vargas is a better defender, but only marginally this year. Last year, Vargas had a ZR of 10.1. This year, it's just 1.5. Trujillo has hit so much better that it is worth sacrificing a little defense in RF on the day Bandit takes the mound. In September, Trujillo had an OPS of .810 while Vargas was only at .540.

I'm going with Graybill over Dixon at 1B because of Graybill's left-handedness and his power. Graybill slugged .523 against RHP with 23 doubles and 21 home runs. Dixon had just 13 extra base hits against right handed pitching on the year and Montreal will likely be sending exclusively RHP to the mound in this series. If they do decide to start a lefty, then Dixon will get the start.

[RonCo]

You've got to plan the plan in case the plan runs into issues and needs to be replanned into a different plan that means the plan you come up with needs to change. So you plan the change and change the plan until the ideas all make sense when looked at according to the plan. At which moment you really should check that one element of the plan in case it needs to be planned again.

[ae37jr]

A trick I like to use in a 7 game series is to have my game 4 starter on a low pitch count. This way he'll definitely be able to contribute out of pen in game 7 if necessary. It's almost like a bullpen game but not really. Theoretically he should go 5 IP

Probably wouldn't work with Natta though as two way players don't really pitch in relief. Would be awesome to see a 15 inng game 7 and the managers comes out with the backup 3B and hands the ball to Natta and says, "take us home bandit".