2061 A Look at the Opt Out Crowd - Pitchers

[Trebro]

There are more pitchers than hitters with opt outs in their contract this year for some reason. Not quite sure why. At any rate, probably more than I can get to in the time I have, but let's do as many as possible! (Edit: I did get everyone, I think! Score one for insomnia, I guess...)

Francisco Ortiz, Bikini
Age: 36
Stats of Note: 5-11, 6.37 ERA, .1 WAR
If Opts In: 6 Million in 2062 OR Team Buy Out of 1.25 Million

Ortiz had a miserable year in Bikini in 2061, even losing his starting position. He didn't have a great 2060, either. At his age and fading ability, despite slightly above average scouting numbers, his best hope is a spring training invite and an especially strong performance. So if he's smart, he stays and forces Ron to pay him 1.25 million, about what he'll get on a minor league deal so he doubles his payday.

I think Ortiz OPTS IN.

Scott Everard, Des Moines
Age: 32
Stats of Note: 22 saves, 23 shut downs against 14 melt downs, 1.33 WHIP, 1.1 WAR
If Opts in: 6 Million in 2062 (3 Million Buy Out) and 6 Million in 2063 (2 Million Buy Out)

This is one of those times where I feel like OOTP skews towards the OVR and will make a decision that's not necessarily the best for the player. Yes, he's a highly rated reliever. Got the pitches and the ratings. But his 1.33 WHIP is just okay, his shut down to melt downs is poor, and he's on the wrong side of 30. I know, I know, ratings, something something, but I look at this guy, look at his stat line for 2061 and notice it's a major downturn from 2060 (2.76 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, only 9 melt downs), and I don't see paying him roughly 2 WAR money to come out of the bullpen for me. Plus, even if Des Moines doesn't pick up the option, he still pockets millions guaranteed.

This could go either way. I think it depends on how much OOTP "influences" the player's decision based on ratings vs performance and how much it takes the buy out into consideration.

I'm guessing Everard OPTS OUT, but it wouldn't shock me if he opts in.

Vassilis Zorba, Mexico City
Age: 35
Stats of Note: 4-4 in 12 starts, 4.47 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, .7 WAR
If Opts In: 11.95 Million in 2062, 11.95 Million in 2063, 11.95 Million in 2064 (Buy Out 2.5 Million)

I don't think this is even really a question. He's 35 going on 36 coming off a rotator cuff injury with nearly 27 million coming to him just by saying "I'll stay where I am, thank you." I don't see any amazing stats that would cause him to think he can do better. His ratings put him slightly above average overall with a few really good pitches. His 2060 season, which was a full one, was solidly 4-5 starter range (9-14, 4.52 ERA, 2.5 WAR). His BABIP hovers around .300, so not bad luck. Zorba is a pitcher with a player-friendly deal.

I imagine Zorba OPTS IN.

Ernesto Juarez, Phoenix
Age: 24(!)
Stats of Note: 1-1, 1 save in 5 games at BBA level. 11.8 k/9 with the Talons
If Opts In: 2 Million in 2062, Player Option for 2.6 Million in 2063

Now here's a fun one! Phoenix signed Juarez to be a ringer in Toledo, where he excellent, then moved him up to the BBA after the Liberty season crashed and burned. It's a VERY limited sample size, but he looks capable of playing at the BBA level. His ratings are amazing 75 now, with a potential to do the full Monty and make 80. His stuff is 11 even after the massive shift in how ratings are calculated. His movement is 6, possibly up to 8. His control is also a 6/8. He throws a slider/cutter combo to deadly effect, even if that might not wow Shoeless because of the pitch types.

In other words, he's got the makings of a relief superstar who could get a very nice, lengthy contract from someone that starts at at least 3 million and might even go higher, depending on who lays their eyes on him. They could even make it a contract with new opt out points. I see no way in which he gets a lower deal than what he has now, and I can think of about ten different ways he gets more. He's not greedy, but I would hope his cyber-agent is looking at the league, looking at his ratings, and going "Sorry, I can find a new sit down casual chain to dine at."

I think Juarez OPS OUT.

John Dawson, San Fernando
Age: 32
Stats of Note: 0-3, 10.80 ERA in 21 games. -.5 WAR. No major injury I could find
If Opts In: 11 Million in 2062, 14.5 Million in 2063 (3 Million Buy Out)

Okay, not sure what the story is with Dawson. I feel like I should know, too, because I talk to Kurt a lot and also read his team news on the regular. I checked the forums and basically, all I know for sure is that the Bears tried to make him hate them as much as possible so he'd opt out, moving him to bullpen duty. He wasn't horrible in 2060 (4-10, 4.52 ERA, 8.2 k/9), but he wasn't 10 million good, either. He's a bit of a puzzle because his ratings are pretty good (3 above average pitches, good stuff at 7, movement and control at 6) but like my dud Lowery below, he can't seem to make it work.

Kurt feels strongly that Dawson won't go anywhere. My hedge here is he does have good ratings, and I think OOTP takes that into account when looking at whether they can get a better deal elsewhere. I don't see him getting 14 million anywhere else long-term let alone in a single season (since there's no way in hell the Bears pick up the option).

Dawson should OPT IN.

NOTE: Jerry Stone of Twin Cities would be a no-brainer to OPT OUT, but he signed an extension. So I assume he's an OPT IN because of that. I won't cover him here, other than to say if he opts out, he's going to be one of the top FA of the 2061-2062 off-season.

Ollie Lowry, Yellow Springs Idiots
Age: 33
Stats of Note: You're kidding right? .1 WAR and at least an easy to type 5.55 ERA
If Opts In: 13 Million in 2062, 13 million in 2063 and a 4 million buy out in 2064, assuming he doesn't get it this off-season.

Oh wow, this is a trade I'd love to have back. I took a chance on this one hoping a change of scenery, better defense, and a strong pitching coach could get me a huge deal on a buying at the bottom for a pitcher I could fix.

Oops.

Oh well, live and learn. I did my best to make Lowery usable as a stopper. When that failed, I did my best to make him miserable, throwing him into garbage duty only and basically shutting him down for a month. I've done my best to make him as unhappy as possible and he is unhappy. Will he be unhappy enough to overlook his obviously bad stats and no chance in hell in getting anything other than a one year deal at best? I sure hope so, but it would be criminally stupid of him to do anything but force me to think about releasing him.

On the other hand, he's 33 and miserable and has strong scouting numbers. Might bet on himself for a better opportunity. He's also a bit stupid. Oh, who am I kidding?

Sadly, I think Lowery OPTS IN.

So of this list of 6, I think 4 opt in and 2 opt out. We'll know very soon if I'm right. Would also not be shocked if that goes the other way, and only 2 stay in. If Ollie and John both opt out, just assume that Kurt and I have found a way to hack Matt's computer.

What do you think? Pitchers are a bit harder to guess, in my opinion. Do you agree with my assessment?

[bcslouck]

I imagine 6/$60M on Juarez is the bare minimum.

[JRamirez]

I figure Everard will opt out.

EDIT: despite his disgraceful season.

[Knucklehead254]

Forgot Sam Fisher

[BaseClogger]

I had Dawson on the DFA circuit most of the season. He’s too homer prone for my park. I’ll cover 50% and give him away to anyone interested.

[BaseClogger]

Juarez isn’t eligible for free agency. If he opts out he’ll receive a $1.5M salary thru automatic renewal so he should opt IN.

[Trebro]

Juarez isn’t eligible for free agency. If he opts out he’ll receive a $1.5M salary thru automatic renewal so he should opt IN.

That doesn't seem fair to the player but thinking it over I guess that would be how that works. Then yeah he's obviously better to opt in.

[Trebro]

Forgot Sam Fisher

Sorry like most people I tend to forget Vancouver exists.

[Trebro]

I had Dawson on the DFA circuit most of the season. He’s too homer prone for my park. I’ll cover 50% and give him away to anyone interested.

Okay that makes sense. I was wondering.

[Trebro]

I figure Everard will opt out.

EDIT: despite his disgraceful season.

How he reacts tonight to his opt in/out will tell me more about how the game engine thinks for players. we'll see if I'm right about it over weighting ratings.

[jiminyhopkins]

Here's the genius when these deals work.... If Juarez opts out, he's still under arb!

[Trebro]

Here's the genius when these deals work.... If Juarez opts out, he's still under arb!

Absolutely brilliant man. but i hear the players union us filing a grievance.

[Trebro]

And how's my prognostication with pitchers?

Hit them all with the exception of Juarez because I forgot about service time rules. He obviously opted in for the higher payday.

Not too shabby!

[ae37jr]

Stone opted out, yet stayed in. I guess when you sign an extension it voids the opt out after all.

[RonCo]

Aside - I've occasionally given guys on arbitration years a contract with an opt-out, knowing he will almost certainly opt out, just because then it stops the game from doing that crappy thing where your next season's salary projects goes up and down based on such projections. That's just annoying. I'm still not sure where he'll end up, but at least the baseline stays stable and I can plan better.