2041 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

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2041 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Post by jleddy » Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:08 pm

Just a reminder about what you'll see below:
  • Ratings (OVERALL/POTENTIAL) are as of July 27, 2041
  • 2041 WAR figures are through July 27, 2041 and projected out for the rest of the season
  • Salary figures in grey italics are projected arbitration totals
  • Players selected in the 2041 First Year Draft were not considered for the list due to lack of professional experience
Part I: #50-#41
Part II: #40-#21

Without further ado, here’s the top twenty for 2041:

- - - - - - - - - -
#20 - Ricardo Rivera, San Antonio, SP 80/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 14

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2039191.1$500,000
2040204.9$500,000
2041210.7$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2045
REMAINING CONTRACT: $22,800,000
REMAINING AAV: $5,700,000


Here’s what was said in last year’s edition: “All that can keep Rivera being one of the best starters in the league is his health.” Well wouldn’t you know it, Rivera suffered a season-ending partially torn labrum in May, giving him an ominous 6.66 ERA for the year. One of only eight 80-rated potential starting pitchers in the majors and the only one to reach such potential, the only thing holding Rivera from being a top 10 value is his fragile arm.


#19 - Ronnie Hubbard, Louisville, CF 66/65
PREVIOUS RANK: 21

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2039205.6$500,000
2040214.5$500,000
2041225.3$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGH: 2044
REMAINING CONTRACT: $21,000,000
REMAINING AAV: $7,000,000


Just when you thought Louisville couldn’t get better, they locked up Hubbard to a three-year under-market extension in April. Despite “only” being rated by scouts at a 65, Hubbard has 40/40 potential every year to go along with outstanding defense in center. With make-up off the charts, Hubbard continues to out-perform the scouts and remains one of the more valuable and fun players to follow in the Brewster.


#18 - David Simpson, California, LF 75/75
PREVIOUS RANK: 6

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2039225.6$500,000
2040236.0$500,000
2041242.3$500,000

TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2044
REMAINING CONTRACT: $28,700,000
REMAINING AAV: $9,566,666


After two straight years ranked in the top 10, the man they call “Horrible” as seen his value slide in lock-step with his 2041 production. When an OPS of .880 is considered a down year, you know what kind of player you’re dealing with. Sure, scouts have downgraded his overall skills just a hair, but Simpson is still a very good player and great value in California as he plays out the final three years of team control.


#17 - Eru Likiliki, Nashville, SP 60/65
PREVIOUS RANK: 22

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2039225.3$1,050,000
2040232.8$1,050,000
2041244.6$3,080,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGH: 2043
REMAINING CONTRACT: $17,600,000
REMAINING AAV: $8,800,000


Likiliki's scouting reports are a mixed bag, but the flame-throwing sidearmer gets the most out of his stuff and diverse pitch arsenal. One red flag is his medical history, but as long as he's making starts every five days, the Bluebirds will take what they can squeeze out of the Samoan hurler. "Doodles" is likely to make oodles on the free agent market in a few years, but until then, Nashville has themselves an interesting pitcher profile and one heck of a trade asset, if needed.


#16 - José Zúñiga, Jacksonville, 1B 75/75
PREVIOUS RANK: 13

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2039232.6$500,000
2040247.3$810,000
2041254.2$1,250,000

TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2044
REMAINING CONTRACT: $23,200,000
REMAINING AAV: $7,733,333


After leading the Johnson League in HR, RBI, SLG and OPS, the league was interested in seeing what kind of follow-up would come from “El Guapo”. He’s due to put up another 1.000+ OPS season so Zúñiga has cemented his name in the top hitters in the league while still on his rookie deal. Zúñiga will see his AAV spike after next season but he’ll still be a huge value asset for Jacksonville.


#15 - Carlos Pineda, Yellow Springs, SP 70/80
PREVIOUS RANK: NR

YEARAGEWARSALARY
203919--minor leagues
2040201.6$500,000
2041216.1$500,000

TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2046
REMAINING CONTRACT: $28,700,000
REMAINING AAV: $4,783,333


Early 20s? Check. Lefty? Check. 98+ MPH fastball with pinpoint control? Check. As if straight from Central Casting for the role of “Young Franchise Starter,” Pineda is already Ace #2 in Yellow Springs’ talented rotation. His low AAV during team control in the next five years was in part a factor in allowing the team to extend Carlos Valle long-term. Sometimes the greatest value never sees the trading block.


#14 - Lorenzo Palácios, Rockville, LF/DH 70/70
PREVIOUS RANK: 9

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2039257.0$10,562,500
2040266.2$10,562,500
2041274.6$13,300,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2045
REMAINING CONTRACT: $53,200,000
REMAINING AAV: $13,300,000


While Palácios is locked up with a reasonable long-term deal, the lefty slugger can opt out after two years and really cash in on a potential $100M+ contract. Risk aside, the best outfielder in the Brewster not named Dennis French, an AAV of $13.3M for any length of time while providing MVP-level production is tremendous value.


#13 - Lineu Aldo, Montreal, 2B 75/75
PREVIOUS RANK: NR

YEARAGEWARSALARY
203919--minor leagues
204020--minor leagues
2041218.0$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2046
REMAINING CONTRACT: $18,800,000
REMAINING AAV: $3,760,000


A top-50 ranked prospect in each of the first six seasons of Aldo’s professional career, the athletic second baseman has burst onto the season in his rookie campaign, earning All-Star honors and on-pace to be a Silk Award finalist. If his debut is a sign for what is in store for opposing pitchers, you can expect Aldo to jump into the top ten in value next year.


#12 - Alex Ramírez, Wichita, 3B 80/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 11

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2039235.7$500,000
2040246.3$7,260,000
2041253.0$7,260,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2041
REMAINING CONTRACT: $7,260,000
REMAINING AAV: $7,260,000



#11 - Steven Collins III, Edmonton, 3B 80/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 12

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2039224.5$500,000
2040236.5$6,875,000
2041248.2$10,531,250
TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2044
REMAINING CONTRACT: $38,400,000
REMAINING AAV: $12,800,000


Edmonton entered 2041 with Collins playing out the final year of his rookie deal, presenting the team with the following decision: trade Collins for an incredible return or fork over well-deserved cash and keep him in the blue and gold for more years. The Jackrabbits’ front office decided on the latter and extended the stud hitter for three years at what looks like a hometown discount.

Ramírez’s value may very well be tested in the next twelve months, as Wichita will be soon faced with a similar scenario as Edmonton did with Collins. Heading into the final year of an under-market extension signed before 2040, Ramírez is spending what looks to be a Hall of Fame-like trajectory on a team averaging 90 losses over the last eight seasons. Does Wichita extend Ramírez in hopes they made a jump towards relevancy or will they move one of the ten best position players in the league to try fill one of the worst minor league systems? Stay tuned…


#10 - Félix Román, Boise, RF 80/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 19

YEARAGEWARSALARY
203919--minor leagues
2040204.6$500,000
2041218.2$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2045
REMAINING CONTRACT: $22,000,000
REMAINING AAV: $5,500,000


A true five-tool superstar-in-the-making, Román has followed up an excellent rookie campaign with a phenomenal season that will likely earn the 21-year-old an award or two. If any player can knock Dennis French off as the best outfielder in the league, it very well might be his teammate Román.


#9 - Héctor Márquez, Seattle, SP 65/70
PREVIOUS RANK: 4

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2039247.0$500,000
2040255.6$500,000
2041266.3$6,8750,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2043
REMAINING CONTRACT: $20,700,000
REMAINING AAV: $10,350,000


The 2039 Frick League Nebraska Award-winner has everything you look for in an ace: left-handed, mid-20s, top-notch production, excellent skills, workhorse capabilities, off-the-charts make-up. That said, Márquez’s value is volatile for two reasons: his AAV is about to spike to over $10M with just two years remaining under team control and scouts have seemed to downgrade their ratings in the last year. Still, it’s tough not to think most teams would throw in the kitchen sink if trying to acquire Márquez in a trade.


#8 - Alaric Wullenweber, Hawaii, SP 75/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 29

YEARAGEWARSALARY
203919--minor leagues
204020--minor leagues
2041216.7$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGH: 2047
REMAINING CONTRACT: $20,100,000
REMAINING AAV: $3,350,000


A second-round steal by Hawaii in the 2038 draft, the short German with the big name and bigger arm has lived up to his pre-season #1 overall prospect status. Arguably the most coveted young pitcher in the entire Brewster, Hawaii has their sights set on big things with Wullenweber under team control through 2047.


#7 - Ángel González, Vancouver, CF 75/75
PREVIOUS RANK: 29

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2039191.3$500,000
2040204.3$500,000
2041218.7$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGH: 2045
REMAINING CONTRACT: $28,300,000
REMAINING AAV: $7,075,000


After debuting at age 19 and putting up an OPS of 1.042 in 24 games, González quickly became one of the best players in the Frick League last year, having a tour de force rookie season that resulted in runner-up in the Gillstrom. Vancouver’s 2041 success can widely be attributed to González, the highest ranked first-timer on this list.


#6 - Aaron Haney, Valencia, CF 75/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 8

YEARAGEWARSALARY
203920--minor leagues
2040217.3$500,000
2041225.9$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2045
REMAINING CONTRACT: $29,200,000
REMAINING AAV: $7,300,000


As referenced in last year’s list, “if anyone can be considered "the next Dennis French," it could be Haney.” After putting up one of the greatest rookie seasons in recent memory, Haney jumped up a few spots and will likely be a fixture in the top ten through the course of his rookie contract.


#5 - Dennis French, Boise, CF 80/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 2

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2039228.1$500,000
2040238.2$7,000,000
20412410.9$10,000,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2043
REMAINING CONTRACT: $21,300,000
REMAINING AAV: $10,650,000


The myth, the man, the legend. French is so good that he could sign a six-figure extension next year and still be considered a top five asset in terms of value.


#4 - Juan Rivera, Atlantic City, RF 80/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 26

YEARAGEWARSALARY
203920--minor leagues
2040215.4$500,000
2041229.4$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGH: 2045
REMAINING CONTRACT: $27,900,000
REMAINING AAV: $6,975,000


Only three years since being drafted, Rivera is in the midst of a Silk Award-worthy season, putting up power numbers rarely seen in the modern era. Thanks to a big rookie season, Rivera’s AAV for his rookie contract nearly doubled, but we’re guessing Atlantic City is quite alright with that trade-off.


#3 - Dong-po Thum, Yellow Springs, 3B 80/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 3

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2039215.4$500,000
2040227.0$500,000
2041236.8$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2044
REMAINING CONTRACT: $28,700,000
REMAINING AAV: $9,566,667


Thum comes in at the #3 spot for a second-straight season and here’s why: with the influx of talented outfielders, SS and 3B seem to be the most valuable to fill with a super-star. And boy oh boy, is Thum a superstar. On pace to averaging nearly 6.5 WAR in his first three seasons in the bigs, it seems there’s nothing Thum can’t do, including delivering in the clutch, as the 23-year-old was named MVP during the Doubleday Series last season. It’s been noted that Yellow Springs tends to get the most out of their players and with a dynamic force at their disposal in Thum, who knows what heights both he and the club can obtain.


#2 - Semei Kwakou, Louisville, RF 75/75
PREVIOUS RANK: 1

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2039197.7$500,000
2040205.9$500,000
2041215.7$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2044
REMAINING CONTRACT: $25,500,000
REMAINING AAV: $8,500,000


It’s not an indictment that Kwakou fell from the perch. Any of the top seven or eight players have great arguments to be considered the highest value in the league. Thanks to a three-year extension buying out the last three years of arbitration, Louisville have the face of their franchise locked up, something that should scare all the other seven teams in the Heartland.


#1 - Danya Tchekanov, Long Beach, SP 75/80
PREVIOUS RANK:7

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2039222.0$500,000
2040235.6$500,000
2041249.1$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2044
REMAINING CONTRACT: $25,400,000
REMAINING AAV: $8,466,666


As if Tchekanov's leap last year from top-10 prospect to one of the best pitchers in the Frick League wasn’t enough, the Belarusian is now simply the best pitcher in the entire Brewster, especially when considering his value with Long Beach having three more years of team control. Tchekanov is on pace to win what will likely be just the first of many Nebraska Awards.


- - - - - - - - - -

And there you have it, the conclusion of the third annual BBA Trade Value Series! Who was left out or who should be shown the door? Who needs some helium to rise higher or who needs to be knocked down a rung or two?

Additionally, here's a few charts breaking down the Top 50:

TEAMPLAYERS IN TOP 50
Louisville 5
Rockville 4
Yellow Springs 4
Boise 3
Calgary 3
Edmonton 3
Valencia 3
Vancouver 3
Atlantic City 2
Charm City 2
Des Moines 2
Hawaii 2
Seattle 2
California 1
Jacksonville 1
Long Beach 1
Madison 1
Mexico City 1
Montreal 1
Nashville 1
New Orleans 1
Omaha 1
San Antonio 1
San Fernando 1
Wichita 1
Brooklyn 0
Charlotte 0
Chicago 0
Las Vegas 0
Phoenix 0
Portland 0
Twin Cities 0

POSITIONPLAYERS IN TOP 50
SP 19
CF 8
RF 7
1B 5
LF 4
3B 3
SS 2
2B 1
C 1
DH 0
RP 0

For those interested, you can see the Top 50 spreadsheet (plus additional players considered) below:
2041 BBA Trade Value spreadsheet.xlsx
(40.65 KiB) Downloaded 7 times
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Re: 2041 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Post by RonCo » Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:16 pm

I love this feature.

Thanks, Joe.
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Re: 2041 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Post by Jwalk100 » Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:02 am

Spreadsheets are my favorite.

Time to go down the rabbit hole.

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Re: 2041 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Post by RonCo » Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:05 am

We need UMEBA list. :)
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Re: 2041 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Post by Jwalk100 » Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:16 am

RonCo wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:05 am
We need UMEBA list. :)
If Joe doesn't mind I will play with the spreadsheet with UMEBA players.

I cant promise anything.

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Re: 2041 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Post by RonCo » Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:22 am

You had me at "if joe doesn't mind."
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Re: 2041 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Post by jleddy » Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:23 am

Jwalk100 wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:16 am
RonCo wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:05 am
We need UMEBA list. :)
If Joe doesn't mind I will play with the spreadsheet with UMEBA players.

I cant promise anything.
By all means!
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Re: 2041 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Post by CTBrewCrew » Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:11 am

Seriously- this is great stuff...ill spend hours going over this list and back into the game 👍...and its valentines day too!
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Re: 2041 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Post by Fat Nige » Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:46 am

Wonderful stuff, would really like to see James' take on the UMEBA boys. Pleased to spot two of my draftees, Kwakou & Hubbard, in the top 20 ;)
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Re: 2041 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Post by aaronweiner » Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:01 am

I wonder if you're destroying my ability to trade Lorenzo Palacios.

"I don't want to pay for the 13th most valuable contract in the BBA!"

Can't say I'm too upset with the results. He's such a stud either way I'm happy.

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Re: 2041 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Post by recte44 » Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:11 pm

No Kidane ATA???
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Re: 2041 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Post by jleddy » Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:43 pm

recte44 wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:11 pm
No Kidane ATA???
67th in WAR last year, 49th this year...considering still under team control and he can allow for an extra roster spot, you could make the argument for ranking in Top 50. I'd like to see another year of offense like 2041 and pitching more in line with his previous seasons than this year before calling him a no-brainer. But that's just me.
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Re: 2041 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Post by recte44 » Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:24 pm

His pitching is wildly skewed by BABIP this year
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