2040 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

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2040 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Post by jleddy » Sun Nov 10, 2019 4:06 pm

Just a reminder of a few notes about what you'll see below:
  • Ratings (OVERALL/POTENTIAL) are as of July 28, 2040
  • 2040 WAR figures are through July 28, 2040 and projected out for the rest of the season
  • Salary figures in grey italics are projected arbitration totals
  • Players selected in the 2040 First Year Draft were not considered for the list due to lack of professional experience
Part I: #50-#41
Part II: #40-#21

Without further ado, here's the top twenty for 2040:

- - - - - - - - - -
#20 - Jorge Nevárez, Charm City, SP 60/80
PREVIOUS RANK: NR

YEARAGEWARSALARY
203820--minor leagues
2039212.9$500,000
2040224.0$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2044
REMAINING CONTRACT: $11,300,000
REMAINING AAV: $2,825,000


Nevárez's landing at #20 might be one of the more scrutinized spots on the list, but any way you cut it, a power southpaw in his early 20s scheduled to make less than $3M per season for the next four years carries a lot of value. While Nevárez's skillset is league average according to scouts and his changeup may never develop, he's built on his fine rookie campaign. The small-framed Mexican lefty has a worrisome medical history, so Charm City could look to move the former #15-overall prospect while he carries this much trade value to a team who looks beyond the scouting reports and finds him an attractive addition to their rotation.


#19 - Félix Román, Boise, RF 65/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 48

YEARAGEWARSALARY
203818--high school
203919--minor leagues
2040204.6$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2045
REMAINING CONTRACT: $18,900,000
REMAINING AAV: $3,780,000


After a 7.4 WAR season between two minor league levels last year, Boise decided to call up its best prospect to slot next to face-of-the-franchise Dennis French. Román has a tremendous bat, with great speed and even better defense and is still not old enough to legally drink TELIQUA. On pace for nearly 5.0 WAR as a rookie and with another level to reach according to scouts, the Spuds have another emerging superstar in the outfield.


#18 - Jefferson Pierce, Calgary, SP 65/70
PREVIOUS RANK: 23

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2038213.9$500,000
2039222.6$500,000
2040235.4$2,500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2042
REMAINING CONTRACT: $9,200,000
REMAINING AAV: $4,600,000


Drafted third overall by Nashville in 2034 and inked to an astonishing $20M signing bonus, "Black Lightning" ascended as high as the #10 prospect in the BBA before being traded to Calgary in 2035. Pierce just earned his second-straight All-Star nod and has cemented himself as one of the top pitchers in the league. The 6'9" righty relies on his 100+ fastball and plus-secondary off-speed pitches but with questionable stamina and just two years of team control left after this season, his trade value may never be higher.


#17 - Orlando Ordóñez, Omaha, CF 65/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 30

YEARAGEWARSALARY
203818--minor leagues
2039190.5$500,000
2040205.2$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2045
REMAINING CONTRACT: $21,200,000
REMAINING AAV: $4,240,000


Despite a second straight "meh" showing in Triple A last year, Omaha rolled the dice and called up the Cuban teenager. The former #2 prospect in baseball struggled all year with a disappointing .715 OPS. It appears that Ordóñez has figured it out in his sophomore campaign, on pace for over 40 HR and 30 SB with excellent defense in center. With his high ceiling, the Hawks hope he continues this trend for the next five seasons while under team control.


#16 - Manuel Aguilar, Jr., Hawaii, 1B 75/75
PREVIOUS RANK: 9

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2038214.0$500,000
2039223.8$500,000
2040236.1$4,000,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2043
REMAINING CONTRACT: $21,300,000
REMAINING AAV: $7,100,000


Last year's edition of the list praised Aguilar as a good player, but "he hasn't quite fulfilled the tagged "Second Coming" moniker." That's changed in 2040, as Aguilar, Jr. has taken his game to a new level. And just in time, as his AAV is starting a steep ascension for the final three years of arbitration. A candidate for a long-term extension, the lefty masher carries impressive value no matter how much he's making.


#15 - Carlos Valle, Yellow Springs, SP 70/75
PREVIOUS RANK: 16

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2038227.1$500,000
2039234.7$6,000,000
2040246.9$6,000,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2041
REMAINING CONTRACT: $6,000,000
REMAINING AAV: $6,000,000


The oldest player in the top 30, Valle's value sees a boost as a pitcher in an "ace starved" league. The three-time All-Star has only one more season until hitting free agency, so this may be the highest Valle lands on this list for the next several editions unless he's signed to a team-friend extension or contract. In addition to providing consistent top-notch performance, Valle's presence in the locker room as team captain and outstanding make-up as valuable as any player in the league.


#14 - Ricardo Rivera, San Antonio, SP 70/75
PREVIOUS RANK: NR

YEARAGEWARSALARY
203818--minor leagues
2039191.1$500,000
2040205.5$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2045
REMAINING CONTRACT: $18,000,000
REMAINING AAV: $3,600,000


The #2 overall pick in the 2037 Draft, Rivera showed what things may come in a five-game cup of coffee in the Brewster last season (3-1, 1.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP). This year, while still technically classified as a rookie, the Guatemalan righty has been San Antonio's best starting pitcher in a rotation that features three-time All-Star Aki Kondo and Nebraska Award-winner Yrrigs Carpenter. All that can keep Rivera being one of the best starters in the league is his health.


#13 - José Zúñiga, Jacksonville, 1B 75/75
PREVIOUS RANK: NR

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2038220.1$500,000
2039232.6$500,000
2040249.1$810,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2044
REMAINING CONTRACT: $18,700,000
REMAINING AAV: $4,675,000


Zúñiga is the highest ranked first-timer, thanks to leading the league in WAR at the time of print. "El Guapo" sputtered during his time in the minors but his performance in the Landis Series earned him playoff MVP honors and helped the Hurricanes win the title. Zúñiga has seemingly springboarded off his post-season breakout and is on pace for an insane 62 homers and .372 batting average. With several more years under team control at a bargain thanks to a recent extension keeping his next two arbitration years under $2M per, Zúñiga has vaulted himself into the discussion of the most valuable trade chips in the league.


#12 - Steven Collins III, Edmonton, 3B 80/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 4

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2038217.2$500,000
2039224.5$500,000
2040236.1$6,875,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2042
REMAINING CONTRACT: $20,700,000
REMAINING AAV: $10,350,000


Sure, Collins III saw his production dip in 2039 but 4.5 WAR is still an excellent season. But the real reason why Collins fell out of the top five in this year's list is merely related to his contract, leaving Edmonton with just two more years at over $10M per season. "Scooter" is a popular, productive 2B/3B with no glaring holes in his game, which still makes him a valuable player. It will be interesting to see what kind of return he could command in a trade should the Jackrabbits front office deal him before he hits free agency.


#11 - Alex Ramírez, Wichita, 3B 80/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 12

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2038224.5$500,000
2039235.7$500,000
2040246.6$7,260,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2042
REMAINING CONTRACT: $21,780,000
REMAINING AAV: $7,260,000


Kudos to Wichita for buying out Ramírez's last three years of arbitration to an extremely team-friendly deal. And all the two-time Puckett winner has done is put up a career-year this season. Like Collins III, the risk of losing Ramírez after 2042 is the only knock against his value. But until then, let's just sit back and enjoy one of the best well-rounded talents in the league.


#10 - Ángel Zalapa, Valencia, SS 80/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 13

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2038227.5$500,000
2039237.5$8,125,000
2040246.4$10,562,500
TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2041
REMAINING CONTRACT: $12,100,000
REMAINING AAV: $12,100,000


How does a player in his 20s at a premium position who's averaged over 7.0 WAR per season over the last three seasons not crack the top ten? Well, with just one more year under contract (at a bargain, mind you), there are only a few select teams that would trade a small fortune to acquire the generational-talent. Zalapa carries the risk of impending free agency and will command huge dollars to sign or extend him but regardless of his financial burden, the number of players better than Zalapa can be counted on just one hand.


#9 - Lorenzo Palácios, Rockville, LF 75/75
PREVIOUS RANK: 10

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2038244.9$8,125,000
2039257.0$10,562,500
2040267.1$10,562,500
TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2045
REMAINING CONTRACT: $66,500,000
REMAINING AAV: $13,300,000


Palácios would have ranked higher than 10th last year if not for being a pending free agent. The best outfielder in the Brewster over the last six seasons will be in a Rockville uniform for several more years thanks to a six-year extension. When lesser free agents demand salaries over $20 million a year, having Palácios locked in at an AAV of $13.3M while providing MVP-level production looks like a steal.


#8 - Aaron Haney, Valencia, CF 75/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 7

YEARAGEWARSALARY
203819--college
203920--minor leagues
2040215.8$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2045
REMAINING CONTRACT: $22,800,000
REMAINING AAV: $4,560,000


If anyone can be considered "the next Dennis French," it could be Haney. The third-overall pick in 2038, "Slowpoke" put up an absurd 9.1 WAR last year in AAA and his rookie season is proving that the sky is the limit. Another massive season and Haney could find himself at the top of the list, and Valencia will find themselves one of the best and most valuable players in the Brewster.


#7 - Danya Tchekanov, Long Beach, SP 75/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 34

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2038210.6$500,000
2039222.0$500,000
2040236.8$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2044
REMAINING CONTRACT: $14,400,000
REMAINING AAV: $4,350,000


Tchekanov's leap up over twenty-five spots on this year's list coincides with his long-awaited breakout campaign. After being named a top-10 prospect for three straight years and countless hours of Brewster general managers salivating over the Belarusian's incredible scouting ratings, Tchekanov has entered the conversation as one of the best pitchers in the Frick League. With a huge ceiling and four more years under team control, he's the very definition of "value".


#6 - David Simpson, California, LF 80/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 5

YEARAGEWARSALARY
203821--minor leagues
2039225.6$500,000
2040235.8$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2044
REMAINING CONTRACT: $29,400,000
REMAINING AAV: $7,350,000


Last year's edition proclaimed "Given his skillset, it doesn’t seem crazy to project Simpson to hit .320 with 50-plus homers annually." He slugged 41 home runs in less than 140 starts in 2039 and this season, he batting .325. "Horrible" is already great and once he pieces it all together, look out. Good luck to the rest of the Brewster as California has the luxury of Simpson's services for four more years.


#5 - Augusto Sánchez, Louisville, SP 70/75
PREVIOUS RANK: 6

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2038213.0$500,000
2039225.8$500,000
2040236.9$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2043
REMAINING CONTRACT: $27,600,000
REMAINING AAV: $9,200,000


Once again, Sánchez is the second-highest ranked pitcher in terms of trade value. Lefties in their 20s who provide 6+ WAR production don't grow on trees but if they did, oh, imagine how valuable that fruit would be. After four straight seasons playing .500 ball, Louisville is putting it all together thanks to the likes of Sánchez and the several other valuable assets.


#4 - Héctor Márquez, Seattle, SP 70/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 2

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2038235.3$500,000
2039247.0$500,000
2040256.2$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2043
REMAINING CONTRACT: $26,800,000
REMAINING AAV: $8,933,333


The reigning Frick League Nebraska Award-winner, Márquez has everything you look for in an ace: left-handed, mid-20s, top-notch production, excellent skills, workhorse capabilities, off-the-charts make-up. Add that he still has three years of arbitration (albeit next year is when he starts to see is salary spike) and arguably the most desirable arm in the Brewster.


#3 - Dong-po Thum, Yellow Springs, 3B 80/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 18

YEARAGEWARSALARY
203820--minor leagues
2039215.4$500,000
2040227.4$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2044
REMAINING CONTRACT: $26,600,000
REMAINING AAV: $6,650,000


Through one-and-a-half seasons, Thum's projected WAR total is higher than what Dennis French produced in his first 240 games. Although not at a premium position like center field, Thum is an outstanding third baseman and could be a very good shortstop if needed. As a rookie, Thum lead the league in two categories (triples and stolen bases) and is on-pace to have the second-highest single-season triples total in modern era history. Yellow Springs tends to get the most out of their players and with a dynamic force at their disposal in Thum, the potential is endless.


#2 - Dennis French, Boise, CF 80/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 1

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2038216.4$500,000
2039228.1$500,000
2040237.2$7,000,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2043
REMAINING CONTRACT: $31,400,000
REMAINING AAV: $10,466,666


So how does one fall from the top spot after leading the entire Brewster in WAR and following it up with a 7.0+ season? Well, French is one year closer to free agency and will make more than $10M in each of the next three seasons. Still a bargain for possibly the best player in the league.


#1 - Semei Kwakou, Louisville, RF 75/75
PREVIOUS RANK: 3

YEARAGEWARSALARY
203818--minor leagues
2039197.7$500,000
2040206.5$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2044
REMAINING CONTRACT: $29,400,000
REMAINING AAV: $7,350,000


When you lead the Johnson League in WAR and win the Sawyer Silk Award as a teenager, you're going to find yourself near the top a lot of rankings. Incredibly enough, scouts actually bumped up his potential since last year and his follow-up has been impressive. Kwakou fulfilled the prophecy laid out in last year's list: "With French's arbitration numbers rising, if Kwakou keeps crushing pitchers for another year, he might be in the mix for the top spot in the 2040 list."


- - - - - - - - - -

And there you have it, the conclusion of the second annual BBA Trade Value Series! Who was left out or who should be shown the door? Who needs some helium to rise higher or who needs to be knocked down a rung or two?

Additionally, here's a few charts breaking down the Top 50:

TEAMPLAYERS IN TOP 50
Rockville 5
Louisville 4
Jacksonville 4
Yellow Springs 3
New Orleans 3
San Fernando 3
Boise 2
Valencia 2
Seattle 2
Hawaii 2
Calgary 2
Charm City 2
Edmonton 2
San Antonio 2
Nashville 2
Atlantic City 2
Madison 2
California 1
Long Beach 1
Wichita 1
Omaha 1
Las Vegas 1
Des Moines 1
Phoenix 0
Mexico City 0
Chicago 0
Montreal 0
Brooklyn 0
Twin Cities 0
Vancouver 0
Charlotte 0
Portland 0

TEAMPOINTS
Louisville 137
Yellow Springs 111
Rockville 95
Jacksonville 86
Valencia 85
Boise 81
Seattle 69
New Orleans 62
Hawaii 57
Calgary 54
Charm City 50
Edmonton 47
California 45
Long Beach 44
San Antonio 43
Wichita 40
Nashville 35
Omaha 34
San Fernando 32
Atlantic City 27
Madison 16
Las Vegas 16
Des Moines 9
Phoenix 0
Mexico City 0
Chicago 0
Montreal 0
Brooklyn 0
Twin Cities 0
Vancouver 0
Charlotte 0
Portland 0

POSITIONPLAYERS IN TOP 50
SP 20
CF 8
3B 5
RF 5
1B 4
SS 3
C 2
LF 2
2B 1
DH 0
RP 0

For those interested, you can see the Top 50 spreadsheet (plus additional players considered) below:
2040 BBA Trade Value Worksheet.xlsx
(50.04 KiB) Downloaded 4 times
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Re: 2040 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Post by jleddy » Sun Nov 10, 2019 4:31 pm

After today's sim, only three more left until the deadline...let's see some deals! :)
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Re: 2040 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Post by RonCo » Sun Nov 10, 2019 7:09 pm

Any list that has loserville #1 is a bad list.
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Re: 2040 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Post by 7teen » Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:25 am

No valuable players worthy of being traded by Portland...

Yep, sounds right haha
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Re: 2040 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Post by recte44 » Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:37 pm

Right in the middle as I expected.

And French not #1?
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Re: 2040 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Post by RonCo » Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:48 pm

I'd be tempted to list Haney #1. His splits are great, and he's a rookie with more years of control.
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Re: 2040 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Post by RonCo » Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:52 pm

I'd also probably put Augusto Sánchez ahead of Héctor Márquez, but who's to complain about either?
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Re: 2040 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Post by RonCo » Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:53 pm

Also, on Thum ... I'd be thrilled if he finishes developing into that contact and gap. :) I'm guessing his triples are related to that 12 speed.
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Re: 2040 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Post by shoeless.db » Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:32 pm

Great stuff, Joe. Not sure how to reflect on the lack of California guys other than Simpson. No one else is deserving of being on the list. I may have a couple years of trying to stay relevant before the drain gets pulled.
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Re: 2040 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Post by CTBrewCrew » Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:46 pm

A good read! Would be good podcast topic at some point 👍🏻

Really enjoyed it
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Re: 2040 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Post by jleddy » Mon Nov 11, 2019 11:35 pm

CTBrewCrew wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:46 pm
A good read! Would be good podcast topic at some point 👍🏻

Really enjoyed it
Thanks! When I did the first annual last year, we were thinking of doing a pod but there was so much going on for the deadline that it feel to the wayside.

Your boy Torres must have been insulted dropping from #8 to #46...10-for-28 with four dingers in the recent sim!
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Re: 2040 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Post by CTBrewCrew » Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:08 am

...Ive been on the phone with Torres' agent all morning. You kill his movie deal ;)
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Re: 2040 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Post by bcslouck » Tue Nov 12, 2019 8:00 am

I know Thum is at #3, but it's tough to knock him for being a 3B when that's a team decision. He's a dynamic player that should keep the range to stay a good SS option through his team control years. If we are talking value and not best players, I feel like he has a strong argument to be #1 or #2. At this point, I'd take him over Kwakou.

Now as for Nevarez, he probably won't be traded anytime soon. Trust me, I've considered it and don't like that you brought up something I've already had in mind to the rest of the league. :lol: We just don't have the pitching depth to do that right now, especially in playoff contention. If our lower minors arms hold up over the next 2-3 years and he stays a solid #2-3 type, well that's a different story. I think he's in the Top 50 but 20 seems a little high given some of the factors.

As for Lara, he has the making to be at least an above average defender. C's just take longer for that position rating to get up there. I'd probably take him over just about every 1B/DH in front of him on the list. But I see some guys behind him I'd probably take over him so he's probably in a decent spot.

Great job on this again though. Always a fun read.
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