2040 BBA Trade Value Series: #50-#41

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2040 BBA Trade Value Series: #50-#41

Post by jleddy » Sat Nov 09, 2019 1:36 pm

This series is the Brewster's version of FanGraph's annual MLB Trade Value series, which was inspired by, if not ripped-off from, Bill Simmons’ NBA trade value column on ESPN.com back in the day. Essentially, the concept is to put together a ranking of the most valuable individual assets in the game, which is a different discussion than who the best players in the game are. Age, contract status, salary, injury history and position scarcity all come into play, not just the numbers on the back of the players' baseball cards.

This year's installment is the second edition to attempt to figure out what players have the most value in the league heading into the 2040 trade deadline. Essentially, the best way to look at a player’s placement on this list is to ask “Would you trade him, straight up, for any of the guys listed ahead of him?”

You can check out last year's list in these forum posts.

A few notes about what you'll see below:
  • Ratings (OVERALL/POTENTIAL) are as of July 28, 2040
  • 2040 WAR figures are through July 28, 2040 and projected out for the rest of the season
  • Salary figures in grey italics are projected arbitration totals
  • Players selected in the 2040 First Year Draft were not considered for the list due to lack of professional experience
Today we start at #50 and work our way up to #41:

- - - - - - - - - -

#50 - Knud Zeitler, San Fernando, SP 60/60
PREVIOUS RANK: NR

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2038242.1$2,030,000
2039254.4$5,250,000
2040266.5$6,200,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGH: 2042
REMAINING CONTRACT: $17,600,000
REMAINING AAV: $8,800,000


Zeitler and teammate Sergei Hopkins gives the Bears two solid, young left-handers to head their rotation. Once ranked the #11 prospect in the BBA, Zeitler has overcome two UCL injuries and is in the midst of a breakout season. With his injury history, salary soon to bump up a few millions (albeit on consecutive team options) and good but unspectacular ratings, Zeitler is unlikely to find himself ranked this high for the rest of his career but he's still a value asset for San Fernando, in both terms of talent and a potential trade chip.


#49 - Millard Younger, Atlantic City, CF 65/65
PREVIOUS RANK: 29

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2038205.6$1,000,000
2039215.7$1,000,000
2040223.1$1,000,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGH: 2043
REMAINING CONTRACT: $24,400,000
REMAINING AAV: $8,133,333


Referred to in last year's edition as "one of the more surprising standouts in the Brewster," Younger's production has dropped after two All-Star seasons, emphasizing his surprise early-career success. Younger is expected to cash in on the last three years of arbitration, but he's still a young, toolsy centerfielder, one of the more attractive archetypes coveted by teams in the league.


#48 - Dan Cannon, Rockville, SP 65/65
PREVIOUS RANK: NR

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2038296.4$18,000,000
2039308.4$18,000,000
2040317.3$17,180,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGH: 2045
REMAINING CONTRACT: $111,000,000
REMAINING AAV: $22,200,000


#47 - Dave Martin, Rockville, SP 60/60
PREVIOUS RANK: NR

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2038296.4$11,000,000
2039306.6$11,000,000
2040317.3$11,060,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGH: 2042
REMAINING CONTRACT: $21,000,000
REMAINING AAV: $10,500,000


The Rockville teammates are the only two players in their 30s to make the Top 50. Cannon debuts on the list as one the best, if not very best, pitchers in the entire league, however his age and salary (highest AAV in the Top 50) nearly kept him off. But despite those two factors, when you average over 7 WAR over the last three seasons as a lefty with virtually no injury history, you are still damn valuable. Martin is just nearly as dominant as Cannon and is peaking despite on the wrong-side of 30. Martin's lower AAV in relation to Cannon, thanks to an extension signed in 2037 that is looking like a bargain, gives him slightly more trade value, however he could opt out after 2041 for one final mega-contract, so the risk of just one more season of team control is a slight knock. With the on-going demands of "I need pitching" littered throughout the Trade Block forum, these two premiere arms carry tremendous value for Rockville.


#46 - Andrew Torres, Madison, CF 55/55
PREVIOUS RANK: 8

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2038212.3$500,000
2039224.6$500,000
2040233.3$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGH: 2043
REMAINING CONTRACT: $19,000,000
REMAINING AAV: $6,333,333


Torres has had a solid, if not unspectacular, start to his career. On-pace for a second straight season with a .330+ batting average, scouts have soured on Torres since last year, notably due to his inability to standout in center (slightly better suited for left field) and growing platoon splits. But despite some of the knocks and dropping out of the top ten in last year's rankings, Torres offers excellent production and the Wolves have done well to get the most out of him. The new regime in Madison could look to sell-high before Torres' trade value drops any more.


#45 - Joey Newhouse, Nashville, 3B 65/65
PREVIOUS RANK: 38

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2038222.2$500,000
2039235.9$500,000
2040244.1$3,650,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGH: 2042
REMAINING CONTRACT: $15,700,000
REMAINING AAV: $7,850,000


After a breakout season in 2039, "The Dart" continues to contribute while splitting playing time between first and third base. Newhouse falls several spots from last year's inaugural list due to his salary climbing in the final years of arbitration. Newhouse will never been the centerpiece of a championship team, but as a solid corner infielder in his 20s, any team would love to have him.


#44 - Jorge Álvarez, San Antonio, SP 70/70
PREVIOUS RANK: 27

YEARAGEWARSALARY
203821--$500,000
2039222.5$500,000
2040233.1$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGH: 2043
REMAINING CONTRACT: $6,700,000
REMAINING AAV: $2,233,333


Despite currently on the injured list (torn rotator cuff), Álvarez finds himself on the list for a second-straight year. Álvarez's stuff and three-pitch repertoire is off-the-charts, however his lack of control and movement, along with a growing injury history (missed all of 2038 to Tommy John surgery) are red flags to temper expectations. In addition to his 101 MPH heavy fastball, Álvarez is slated to make less than $3M in AAV for the next three years of arbitration, which helps his overall trade value.


#43 - Chandler Hall, Edmonton, SP 55/70
PREVIOUS RANK: NR

YEARAGEWARSALARY
203818--minor leagues
203919--minor leagues
2040203.3$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGH: 2046
REMAINING CONTRACT: $17,400,000
REMAINING AAV: $2,900,000


Ranked the #14 prospect heading into 2040, "Cat" has already seen his trade value tested. Edmonton acquired Hall from Hawaii in the middle of last season in a deal that's looking like a steal for the Jackrabbits. In his rookie season, Hall has looked impressive and scouts love his entire game. The one factor that will play a role in Hall's career trajectory is his health; at 21-years-old, he 6'0" righty has already landed on the injured list three times, including a 10-month stint in 2037 for a torn elbow tendon.


#42 - Don Smith, Des Moines, SP 55/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 17

YEARAGEWARSALARY
203818--high school
2039191.0$500,000
2040202.1$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGH: 2045
REMAINING CONTRACT: $21,200,000
REMAINING AAV: $4,240,000


THE GOOD: 4th overall pick in 2038 draft; became youngest player in BBA history to throw a no-hitter earlier this season; scouts drool over his combination of dominance and control
THE BAD: Likely to miss the rest of this year with shoulder inflammation, already his third shoulder ailment at age 20
THE UGLY: Des Moines' front office arguably rushed Smith to the big leagues, burning two season of control in exchange for just 3.1 WAR

Smith is going to be a good pitcher, but the decision to call him up in 2038 as a raw 19-year-old may or may not affect his development into an excellent pitcher. Plus his debut started his arbitration clock early for a team not ready to contend. It remains to be seen if his value is greater as part of the Kernels' rotation or as a trade chip to improve the organization.


#41 - Armando Feliciano, Louisville, SP 50/80
PREVIOUS RANK: NR

YEARAGEWARSALARY
203818--minor leagues
203919--minor leagues
2040200.7$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGH: 2046
REMAINING CONTRACT: $17,400,000
REMAINING AAV: $2,900,000


The man they call "Commie Child" has long carried trade value since being drafted third overall in 2037. For three consecutive seasons, Feliciano has ranked no lower than the #6 overall prospect. A torn UCL last year kept him out of the Top 50, however this year's debut won't be his last. Feliciano's first two career starts in the Brewster shows his potential (2-0, 2.57 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) and while he's still very raw, "Commie Child" could turn out to be one of the top pitchers in the league for the next ten years.
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Re: 2040 BBA Trade Value Series: #50-#41

Post by RonCo » Sat Nov 09, 2019 1:38 pm

Oh, Goodie!
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Re: 2040 BBA Trade Value Series: #50-#41

Post by usnspecialist » Sat Nov 09, 2019 1:57 pm

Knud!!!

I will make the devils advocate argument for bringing smith (or anyone) up maybe a season earlier than you normally would. If they do struggle the first year or two, that should lower their arb price so it can actually help price wise in the long run.
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Re: 2040 BBA Trade Value Series: #50-#41

Post by handaspencer » Sat Nov 09, 2019 2:13 pm

I love this type stuff

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Re: 2040 BBA Trade Value Series: #50-#41

Post by RonCo » Sat Nov 09, 2019 2:40 pm

Bringing a kid up early so they can perform poorly on purpose seems counter intuitive to me. :)
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Re: 2040 BBA Trade Value Series: #50-#41

Post by RonCo » Sat Nov 09, 2019 3:26 pm

Jonesing for the next ten.
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Re: 2040 BBA Trade Value Series: #50-#41

Post by jleddy » Sat Nov 09, 2019 3:29 pm

RonCo wrote:
Sat Nov 09, 2019 2:40 pm
Bringing a kid up early so they can perform poorly on purpose seems counter intuitive to me. :)
It's terrible reasoning.

@usnspecialist, feel free to edit out that devil's advocate scenario...it's still early enough that people haven't seen it yet. :)
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Re: 2040 BBA Trade Value Series: #50-#41

Post by jleddy » Sat Nov 09, 2019 3:31 pm

RonCo wrote:
Sat Nov 09, 2019 3:26 pm
Jonesing for the next ten.
Spoiler alert: next installment is #40-#11 and will go up sometime Sunday night.
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Re: 2040 BBA Trade Value Series: #50-#41

Post by RonCo » Sat Nov 09, 2019 3:35 pm

Sending our corporate espionage service out to turn the clocks up in Boise.
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Re: 2040 BBA Trade Value Series: #50-#41

Post by niles08 » Sat Nov 09, 2019 4:28 pm

Ohhh this is great
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Re: 2040 BBA Trade Value Series: #50-#41

Post by StormZ_23 » Sat Nov 09, 2019 4:30 pm

I expect the top 5 will be all Vancouver players, I wouldn't blame you.
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Re: 2040 BBA Trade Value Series: #50-#41

Post by jiminyhopkins » Sat Nov 09, 2019 4:49 pm

I expect none to be phoenix players.
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Re: 2040 BBA Trade Value Series: #50-#41

Post by usnspecialist » Sun Nov 10, 2019 12:48 am

I probably did word that poorly. What I mean is that I dont necessarily wait for a guy to be 100% ready in all cases before bringing him up, I will let them work it out and develop a bit at the BBA level. A prime example of this is Tai hoi Wie, I brought him up in April of 2032 when he still has quite a bit of development to do. Not sure of this exact ratings, but looking at the HTML he was 6/4/7 with 8/9/9 pot on 01 Jan 2032 and 7/6/8 with same pot on 01 Jan 2033. His first year was the definition of hot garbage with a .228/.329/.333 line and -1.9 WAR. The very next season he was .306/.430/.545 with 4.4 WAR out of the DH spot.
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Re: 2040 BBA Trade Value Series: #50-#41

Post by CTBrewCrew » Sun Nov 10, 2019 6:32 am

StormZ_23 wrote:
Sat Nov 09, 2019 4:30 pm
I expect the top 5 will be all Vancouver players, I wouldn't blame you.
....or all Madison players 😀
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Re: 2040 BBA Trade Value Series: #50-#41

Post by RonCo » Sun Nov 10, 2019 8:12 am

usnspecialist wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 12:48 am
I probably did word that poorly. What I mean is that I dont necessarily wait for a guy to be 100% ready in all cases before bringing him up, I will let them work it out and develop a bit at the BBA level. A prime example of this is Tai hoi Wie, I brought him up in April of 2032 when he still has quite a bit of development to do. Not sure of this exact ratings, but looking at the HTML he was 6/4/7 with 8/9/9 pot on 01 Jan 2032 and 7/6/8 with same pot on 01 Jan 2033. His first year was the definition of hot garbage with a .228/.329/.333 line and -1.9 WAR. The very next season he was .306/.430/.545 with 4.4 WAR out of the DH spot.
Given that Wie's arbitration numbers were $6.875M and $11.59M before you signed him to an extension, I struggle to suggest that his issues in the first year saved you any money. In fact, while I could be wrong, it's my firm opinion that the idea that first year performance has much (if any) impact on arbitration numbers is ... um ... inappropriately hopeful? I think players get paid mostly based on what they did last year.

In Wie's case, running the two scenarios together--and assuming the cash would have flowed similarly (which, again, I think is a good assumption), it appears Wie's -1.9 WAR season cost SFB about $15M in salary cap from 2035-2037. It also cost SFB a year of control in his peak, which results in losing an additional $5M in 2041 cap space.

I think it is fair to say that if you call up a superstar early, and that superstar fails to perform (or serve another necessary purpose) that year, you have hurt your franchise in the long run.

Scenario2032203320342035203620372038203920402041
Call-up0.50.50.56.87511.59415.1615.8615.8614.1919.19
Wait a year0.50.50.56.87511.59415.1615.8615.8614.19
Salary cap hit0.5006.3754.7193.5660.70-1.675

What you can say with certainty about Wie's experience is that the early call-up did not break his development--but that is a different discussion of risk.
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