UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May (updated to Mid-July)

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UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May (updated to Mid-July)

Post by RonCo » Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:50 pm

I modified my script to get UMEBA data...

Here's UMEBA defense through May in "Plays Above Average"

Code: Select all

BBA PERFORMANCE BY PLAYS MADE ABOVE AVERAGE (Through May)					
					
TEAM	GB	FB	LD(IF)	LD(OF)	TOTAL
BAG	39.4	8.0	0.2	2.2	50.0
MUM	1.3	1.6	0.4	1.3	4.7
IST	2.2	-2.4	0.4	-1.7	-1.5
MAN	-13.4	6.3	-0.8	3.3	-4.6
CAI	-14.7	9.9	-1.3	-0.3	-6.5
BUC	3.2	-6.2	0.1	-4.3	-7.2
BEI	-11.3	-7.9	0.6	2.9	-15.7
JER	-6.8	-9.2	0.4	-3.4	-19.1
League	0	0	0	0	0

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Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May

Post by HoosierVic » Sun Apr 28, 2019 11:37 am

Excellent- thanks, Ron!

Just so I’m clear on what I’m reading here, Baghdad is leading the league in plays above average by rather a breathtaking margin, correct? And that would mean that Baghdad fielders are getting to more balls and making more plays than the rest of us?

Again, thanks for running this - I know it’s extra time and effort for you.

Cheers!

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Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May

Post by RonCo » Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:10 pm

Yes, that's how to read it.

The script I use goes through all the game logs (which takes time because to get the game logs in html format means I have to manually go through the game and open every game's box score, then game log). Anyway, for each batter/pitcher match-up it captures a whole bunch of information, among which is the zone the ball was hit to, the type of batted ball (FB/GB/LD/PU/Bunt), and the results (single, double, out, error, etc).

The script then goes through every zone and calculates how the league performs in that zone as the baseline--then calculates (1) how your team did in dealing with actual plays you had and (2) how the league average defense would have done given the plays your team had to make. At that point, it calculates the difference between your defense and a "league average" defense...which it then calls PLAYS ABOVE AVERAGE.
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Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May

Post by bschr682 » Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:12 pm

Awww yea. Worst defense in the league. First time in my entire OOTP career that thats happened

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Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May

Post by RonCo » Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:16 pm

I should probably post a compiled results file again sometime. It's a little overwhelming at first, but if you're insane like I am, it's fun to fiddle with on occasion. I can look at silly things like Called/Swinging Strike out rates, and a gazillion other things that might or might not make a difference at all.

The defense stuff, though, I'm pretty confident of. If I could ever get it to individual players, I'd trust it a lot more than OOTP's ZR.

I've done work that can get down into individual players, but to do it you need more information than the game gives you in its game logs (the data is easier to get at in the base .csv files, but only Matt can manage those for us). That said, if I think about it, I might be able to use the box score html files to back-calculate it. That's a lot more coding work than I want to do right now, though. :)
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Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May

Post by RonCo » Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:16 pm

This is just through May...so sample size could be creating gaps where they don't exist.
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Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May

Post by bschr682 » Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:27 pm

Oh it’s not just sample size. My corner outfielders are lets just say a bit defensively challenged hahahaha

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Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May

Post by RonCo » Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:49 pm

:)

Everything is relative, though.

I love these things because the question of "can a 7" range play in center field is always dependent on what everyone else is rated. If everyone is a 7, then that guy's average. Kinda. And then, assuming everyone else is an "8" or a "9" how good does the guy's bat have to be before the defense is not a problem? There is no pure answer to these questions, so it's great fun to look at.

On the other hand, there is sometimes only a certain level of klutziness a GMs stomach can accept. :)
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Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May

Post by Ted » Sun Apr 28, 2019 1:10 pm

So Beirut's OF numbers make me wonder about something. How can a team be better at OF lines drives than OF fly balls? I saw a number of BBA teams like this. IS the IF defense so bad at fly balls that it makes up for it? Unlikely. Small sample size? Probably. But again ,I think there were 5-6 BBA teams like this. Still could be that the samples are too small. Just seems odd.
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Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May

Post by Ted » Sun Apr 28, 2019 1:16 pm

For reference, here are the BBA teams like Beirut.
TEAMGBFBLD(IF)LD(OF)TOTAL
OMA 18.5 -8.2 -0.8 1.3 10.8
CCJ 12.5 -5.8 0.8 2.6 10.1
WIC 9.7 -5.9 0.6 5.2 9.5
BRK 1.6 0.0 -0.2 4.9 6.4
SEA 15.4 -13.3 -0.3 3.8 5.6
HNT 5.5 -3.8 -0.1 2.8 4.4
ATC -24.1 -6.9 -1.7 1.7 -31.0
Lg. Avg. 0 0 0 0 0
All have positive number for OF line drives and negative overall fly ball numbers. Most actually have good ground ball numbers, so the (unlikely) theory that IF fly ball ineptitude is making up the difference is out. Maybe the OF line drives are uncommon enough that the sample is wholly inadequate for an individual team?
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Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May

Post by RonCo » Sun Apr 28, 2019 1:20 pm

It's better than league average in each category. Not better than themselves. Every team is better defending FB than defending Line Drives by a wide margin. There could be sample size issues, but there could also be distribution differences team to team. One team could get 30 FB to zone 89XD (very deep Right-center, where many fly balls fall for hits), while another only gets 10 hit there.

I need to post the detailed charts again sometime so that folks can see the differences.

Anyway, it's sometimes impossible to separate pitching from defense, and visa versa. :)
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Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May

Post by RonCo » Sun Apr 28, 2019 1:20 pm

Ted wrote:
Sun Apr 28, 2019 1:16 pm
For reference, here are the BBA teams like Beirut.
TEAMGBFBLD(IF)LD(OF)TOTAL
OMA 18.5 -8.2 -0.8 1.3 10.8
CCJ 12.5 -5.8 0.8 2.6 10.1
WIC 9.7 -5.9 0.6 5.2 9.5
BRK 1.6 0.0 -0.2 4.9 6.4
SEA 15.4 -13.3 -0.3 3.8 5.6
HNT 5.5 -3.8 -0.1 2.8 4.4
ATC -24.1 -6.9 -1.7 1.7 -31.0
Lg. Avg. 0 0 0 0 0
All have positive number for OF line drives and negative overall fly ball numbers. Most actually have good ground ball numbers, so the (unlikely) theory that IF fly ball ineptitude is making up the difference is out. Maybe the OF line drives are uncommon enough that the sample is wholly inadequate for an individual team?
I don't include infield zones in the OF calculations.
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Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May

Post by RonCo » Sun Apr 28, 2019 1:24 pm

For example, since Huntsville is in the list there, here's Huntsville's performance as of the end of June:

Code: Select all

Huntsville Phantoms Defensive Performance (Fly Balls)								
								
BIZ	9L	9	89	8R	8L	78	7	7L
SHALLOW	18	36	28	15	21	24	33	11
MID	10	21	24	16	22	31	22	14
DEEP	19	37	24	19	15	23	30	14
EXTRA-D	0	0	23	15	21	23	0	0
								
ERRORS	9L	9	89	8R	8L	78	7	7L
SHALLOW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
MID0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	
DEEP	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0
EXTRA-D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
								
EFF	9L	9	89	8R	8L	78	7	7L
SHALLOW	0.611	0.833	0.750	0.733	0.810	0.708	0.758	0.545
MID	0.600	1.000	0.792	1.000	1.000	0.903	1.000	0.714
DEEP	0.211	0.459	0.750	0.947	0.933	0.739	0.400	0.143
EXTRA-D			0.217	0.467	0.333	0.217		
								
EFF:LG	9L	9	89	8R	8L	78	7	7L
SHALLOW	0.707	0.817	0.725	0.822	0.831	0.709	0.826	0.721
MID	0.791	0.989	0.830	0.993	0.989	0.818	0.997	0.811
DEEP	0.151	0.373	0.781	0.950	0.952	0.819	0.394	0.159
EXTRA-D			0.203	0.482	0.474	0.154		
								
PLAYS	9L	9	89	8R	8L	78	7	7L
SHALLOW	-1.73	0.57	0.70	-1.34	-0.45	-0.02	-2.26	-1.94
MID	-1.91	0.23	-0.93	0.11	0.23	2.65	0.07	-1.35
DEEP	1.14	3.20	-0.75	-0.05	-0.28	-1.84	0.17	-0.22
EXTRA-D	0.00	0.00	0.34	-0.23	-2.95	1.46	0.00	0.00
								
								
-------------------------------------								
FLY BALLS IN EXTRA-DEEP ZONES								
	9L	9	89	8R	8L	78	7	7L
BIZ	0	0	23	15	21	23	0	0
Out	0	0	5	7	7	5	0	0
E	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Eff			0.217	0.467	0.333	0.217		
Lg Eff			0.203	0.482	0.474	0.154		

								
								
FLY BALLS IN DEEP ZONES								
	9L	9	89	8R	8L	78	7	7L
BIZ	19	37	24	19	15	23	30	14
Out	4	17	18	18	14	17	12	2
E	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0
Eff	0.211	0.459	0.750	0.947	0.933	0.739	0.400	0.143
Lg Eff	0.151	0.373	0.781	0.950	0.952	0.819	0.394	0.159
								
								
FLY BALLS IN MID-ZONES								
	9L	9	89	8R	8L	78	7	7L
BIZ	10	21	24	16	22	31	22	14
Out	6	21	19	16	22	28	22	10
E	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Eff	0.600	1.000	0.792	1.000	1.000	0.903	1.000	0.714
Lg Eff	0.791	0.989	0.830	0.993	0.989	0.818	0.997	0.811
								
								
FLY BALLS IN SHALLOW ZONES								
	9L	9	89	8R	8L	78	7	7L
BIZ	18	36	28	15	21	24	33	11
Out	11	30	21	11	17	17	25	6
E	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Eff	0.611	0.833	0.750	0.733	0.810	0.708	0.758	0.545
Lg Eff	0.707	0.817	0.725	0.822	0.831	0.709	0.826	0.721

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Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May

Post by Ted » Sun Apr 28, 2019 1:27 pm

I get it now. So I'd be looking for a correlation between fly ball defense being above league average and OF line drive defense being above league average that the sample size for OF lines drives isn't large enough to drive. And our parks are different. And there are probably other reasons one team sees many more types of one fly ball than others that I'm not accounting for.
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Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May

Post by RonCo » Sun Apr 28, 2019 1:31 pm

That's probably the case.

Another idea...a team with OF that had high range, high error ratings, could well do worse than league average in "routine plays" that everyone gets to (like Fly Balls in routine zones) but do better than league average in Line Drives only because that advanced range helps them get to more balls.

I have no idea if that's true because I can't get to individual players here (among other reasons). But it's something that, if true, suggests OF defense is not just about range...which seems reasonable.
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Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May

Post by RonCo » Sun Apr 28, 2019 1:33 pm

This kind of study makes no real differentiation between a hit allowed and an error. It only counts how many balls a team turns into outs.
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Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May

Post by RonCo » Sun Apr 28, 2019 1:35 pm

One of the reasons I occasionally post things like how many balls in play go to each zone (beyond the fact that I'm a numbers junkie on a search for a fix) is that if a GM wants to spend a little time thinking about probability, they can make their own choices on how much risk to take on defense at one position or another.
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Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May

Post by RonCo » Sun Apr 28, 2019 1:36 pm

I would post more detailed UMEBA data here, but all of it is on another hard drive that I don't have access to right now. :)
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Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May

Post by RonCo » Sun Apr 28, 2019 1:39 pm

Here's the league-wide distribution of Fly Balls in BBA through June, for example:

Code: Select all

League Defensive Performance (Fly Balls)								
								
BIZ	9L	9	89	8R	8L	78	7	7L
SHALLOW	471	964	673	591	597	636	955	456
MID	263	635	702	593	562	658	610	264
DEEP	531	1054	709	581	540	631	1014	504
EXTRA-D			809	587	610	722		
								
ERRORS	9L	9	89	8R	8L	78	7	7L
SHALLOW	0	4	2	5	4	2	3	0
MID1	3	2	4	6	6	2	2	
DEEP	0	2	0	2	6	2	3	0
EXTRA-D			1	3	5	0		
								
EFF	9L	9	89	8R	8L	78	7	7L
SHALLOW	0.707	0.817	0.725	0.822	0.831	0.709	0.826	0.721
MID	0.791	0.989	0.830	0.993	0.989	0.818	0.997	0.811
DEEP	0.151	0.373	0.781	0.950	0.952	0.819	0.394	0.159
EXTRA-D			0.203	0.482	0.474	0.154		
								
EFF:LG	9L	9	89	8R	8L	78	7	7L
SHALLOW	0.707	0.817	0.725	0.822	0.831	0.709	0.826	0.721
MID	0.791	0.989	0.830	0.993	0.989	0.818	0.997	0.811
DEEP	0.151	0.373	0.781	0.950	0.952	0.819	0.394	0.159
EXTRA-D			0.203	0.482	0.474	0.154		
								
PLAYS	9L	9	89	8R	8L	78	7	7L
SHALLOW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
MID	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
DEEP	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
EXTRA-D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
								
								
-------------------------------------								
FLY BALLS IN EXTRA-DEEP ZONES								
	9L	9	89	8R	8L	78	7	7L
BIZ			809	587	610	722		
Out			164	283	289	111		
E			1	3	5	0		
Eff			0.203	0.482	0.474	0.154		
Lg Eff			0.203	0.482	0.474	0.154		
								
								
FLY BALLS IN DEEP ZONES								
	9L	9	89	8R	8L	78	7	7L
BIZ	531	1054	709	581	540	631	1014	504
Out	80	393	554	552	514	517	400	80
E	0	2	0	2	6	2	3	0
Eff	0.151	0.373	0.781	0.950	0.952	0.819	0.394	0.159
Lg Eff	0.151	0.373	0.781	0.950	0.952	0.819	0.394	0.159
								
								
FLY BALLS IN MID-ZONES								
	9L	9	89	8R	8L	78	7	7L
BIZ	263	635	702	593	562	658	610	264
Out	208	628	583	589	556	538	608	214
E	1	3	2	4	6	6	2	2
Eff	0.791	0.989	0.830	0.993	0.989	0.818	0.997	0.811
Lg Eff	0.791	0.989	0.830	0.993	0.989	0.818	0.997	0.811
								
								
FLY BALLS IN SHALLOW ZONES								
	9L	9	89	8R	8L	78	7	7L
BIZ	471	964	673	591	597	636	955	456
Out	333	788	488	486	496	451	789	329
E	0	4	2	5	4	2	3	0
Eff	0.707	0.817	0.725	0.822	0.831	0.709	0.826	0.721
Lg Eff	0.707	0.817	0.725	0.822	0.831	0.709	0.826	0.721

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Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May

Post by RonCo » Sun Apr 28, 2019 5:35 pm

Updated through mid-July:

Code: Select all

UMEBA PERFORMANCE BY PLAYS MADE ABOVE AVERAGE					
					
TEAM	GB	FB	LD(IF)	LD(OF)	TOTAL
BAG	48.1	18.4	0.0	6.1	72.5
BEI	-26.6	-6.0	0.9	6.6	-25.1
BUC	11.8	3.9	-1.2	-7.1	7.3
CAI	-17.5	7.3	-1.5	-0.5	-12.1
IST	9.9	1.5	1.0	-2.0	10.4
JER	-19.6	-24.3	1.2	-5.2	-47.9
MAN	-12.1	5.3	-0.3	3.9	-3.1
MUM	6.1	-6.1	-0.1	-1.8	-1.9
	0	0	0	0	0

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