2038 Defense: (Updated End of Year)

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2038 Defense: (Updated End of Year)

Post by RonCo » Tue Apr 16, 2019 3:35 pm

Defense is the most difficult skillset to measure right? But here we are once again, two months through the season and doing our best to do just that.

The older-timers know the deal, but for newer folks, this data is compiled with a script that runs through every game log and parses out defensive plays made in each ball hit into each zone--then I compare how a team is doing vs. the overall league. In this particular case, I've generalized down to just Ground Balls, Fly Balls, and Line Drives (IF/OF). When I get a chance I'll post more granular stuff, just cause it's interesting, right?

Anyway, I can't get down to individual players with this kind of study, but ultimately, the script calculates the number of plays each team has made relative to the number they would have made if they had a league average defense.

Bottom line: right now, Rockville has the leageu's best defense, having made 28.3 plays more than they would have had they been fielding an average defense. Phoenix is close behind.

BBA DEFENSE: PLAYS ABOVE AVERAGE
TEAMGBFBLD(IF)LD(OF)TOTAL
RCK 4.3 16.1 2.1 5.8 28.3
PHX 7.8 17.1 -0.3 1.9 26.5
MEX 3.4 18.9 0.1 0.6 23.0
LBC 17.0 5.1 0.5 0.1 22.7
BOI 18.9 0.0 -1.6 3.1 20.5
SA 15.6 3.1 0.2 -2.3 16.5
CLG -1.6 11.1 0.5 1.4 11.5
LOU 6.2 3.3 -1.9 3.8 11.4
OMA 18.5 -8.2 -0.8 1.3 10.8
CCJ 12.5 -5.8 0.8 2.6 10.1
WIC 9.7 -5.9 0.6 5.2 9.5
JAX -9.0 14.3 -0.8 2.6 7.2
BRK 1.6 0.0 -0.2 4.9 6.4
SEA 15.4 -13.3 -0.3 3.8 5.6
EDM -0.1 3.1 1.1 0.7 4.8
HNT 5.5 -3.8 -0.1 2.8 4.4
LV 3.7 -3.9 0.0 -4.7 -4.9
CAL 6.3 -8.6 0.2 -2.9 -5.0
VAL 7.0 -10.6 0.0 -1.7 -5.4
VAN -0.4 -3.7 -0.8 -1.5 -6.3
HAW 3.5 -4.5 0.0 -5.4 -6.4
DES -7.0 0.9 -0.6 0.0 -6.7
SFB -20.6 11.6 1.0 -1.6 -9.6
NSV -6.2 -6.3 -0.3 -2.9 -15.7
MNT -12.0 -4.1 1.9 -2.3 -16.6
YS9 -1.4 -15.4 0.3 -3.9 -20.3
NO -25.7 0.9 1.2 -2.8 -26.4
MAD -28.0 3.5 0.1 -5.0 -29.5
ATC -24.1 -6.9 -1.7 1.7 -31.0
TWC -21.0 -8.1 -1.1 -5.3 -35.5
Lg. Avg. 0 0 0 0 0
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Re: 2038 Defense: Through End of May

Post by aaronweiner » Tue Apr 16, 2019 4:12 pm

Spiffy.

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Re: 2038 Defense: Through End of May

Post by ae37jr » Tue Apr 16, 2019 5:04 pm

I'll settle for middle of the pack. Been cross training at the BBA level an have a hack at 1b. Thought it would be worse.
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Re: 2038 Defense: Through End of May

Post by RonCo » Tue Apr 16, 2019 5:07 pm

Since I'm playing with it today, here's a fun league-wide chart for total batted balls by zone:
2038-Batted-Ball-Locations.PNG
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Re: 2038 Defense: Through End of May

Post by ae37jr » Tue Apr 16, 2019 5:08 pm

Wareham and Gorilla man must have really lumped defensively. I thought they were a solid dp combo last time I checked.
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Re: 2038 Defense: Through End of May

Post by RonCo » Tue Apr 16, 2019 5:21 pm

Here's the league-wide out conversion rate for each zone. These are essentially the backbone for the "Plays above average" measure. The process uses these rates against the scatter that your team has seen. Then compares your actual results vs. the results that would happen for this "average" defense.
2038-Batted-Ball-Out-Rates.PNG
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Re: 2038 Defense: Through End of May

Post by RonCo » Tue Apr 16, 2019 5:27 pm

Could just be sample sizes...or that the league has gotten better at the same time as they've lost an edge. The TWC infield was -7 PAA on Ground Balls average last season.
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Re: 2038 Defense: Through End of May

Post by RonCo » Tue Apr 16, 2019 5:30 pm

Here's Twin Cities' chart by zone...it does look like the middle of the infield is the "problem" if you assume sample size of two months is relevant.

Code: Select all

PLAYS	3L	3	34	4	4M	6M	6	56	5	5L
SHAL	0.00	-1.03	-1.08	-6.77	0.25	-0.04	-0.05	0.04	0.70	0.00
MID	0.72	1.11	1.18	-0.93	-3.52	-0.37	-2.72	1.99	1.37	-4.27
DEEP	0.00	-0.40	-1.61	-0.56	-2.11	0.13	0.68	-2.49	-1.21	0.00
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Re: 2038 Defense: Through End of May

Post by ae37jr » Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:39 pm

RonCo wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 5:30 pm
Here's Twin Cities' chart by zone...it does look like the middle of the infield is the "problem" if you assume sample size of two months is relevant.

Code: Select all

PLAYS	3L	3	34	4	4M	6M	6	56	5	5L
SHAL	0.00	-1.03	-1.08	-6.77	0.25	-0.04	-0.05	0.04	0.70	0.00
MID	0.72	1.11	1.18	-0.93	-3.52	-0.37	-2.72	1.99	1.37	-4.27
DEEP	0.00	-0.40	-1.61	-0.56	-2.11	0.13	0.68	-2.49	-1.21	0.00
It looks as if Wareham is having a bit of a down season defensively. He's still 8/8/9/11, which is perfectly fine with a bat like his IMO. Man has lumped offensively and having a terrible season, so the more offensive Joey Newhouse has stepped in and he is hurting the defense some. It's always a struggle trying to balance offense and defense in this game.
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Re: 2038 Defense: Through End of May

Post by RonCo » Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:12 pm

True. And, like I say, I can't trace performance to one guy vs. another, so these are team data.
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Re: 2038 Defense: Through End of May

Post by JimBob2232 » Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:17 pm

And this sums up my problem. Love my 2B, but he can’t hang.
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Re: 2038 Defense: Through End of May

Post by RonCo » Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:31 pm

JimBob2232 wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:17 pm
And this sums up my problem. Love my 2B, but he can’t hang.
I'd say you're right there...

Code: Select all

PLAYS	3L	3	34	4	4M	6M	6	56	5	5L
SHAL	0.00	-0.31	0.49	-3.84	-0.75	0.38	-0.33	-2.86	-0.96	0.00
MID	2.14	1.90	-5.23	1.25	-0.01	-0.93	0.79	-2.11	0.18	-0.27
DEEP	0.00	0.21	-5.23	-1.60	-1.85	-1.97	-1.85	-2.49	-0.45	0.00

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Re: 2038 Defense: Through End of May

Post by RonCo » Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:32 pm

Or at least that's a major part of the defensive side of things, anyway.
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Re: 2038 Defense: Through End of May

Post by Lane » Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:13 pm

happy to see LBC with a top infield as designed
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Re: 2038 Defense: Through End of May

Post by RonCo » Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:14 pm

If I get a little time tomorrow I'll see if I can run the UMEBA.
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Re: 2038 Defense: Through End of May

Post by handaspencer » Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:00 pm

Even though we are not happy where Montreal is currently defensively, we have greatly improved. Last season we ranked 30th in most categories. Hopefully once we get this thing built in a few seasons we can be in the upper half instead of near the bottom.

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Re: 2038 Defense: Through End of May

Post by RonCo » Tue Apr 23, 2019 5:26 pm

Updated Through June:

BBA DEFENSE: PLAYS ABOVE AVERAGE
TEAMGBFBLD(IF)LD(OF)TOTAL
LBC 21.1 12.0 0.3 1.4 34.7
BOI 29.9 -3.4 -1.9 9.8 34.4
MEX 11.8 20.9 0.0 1.2 33.8
LOU 11.2 13.4 -0.9 5.8 29.5
RCK 4.5 17.6 2.0 3.6 27.8
PHX 7.9 16.3 0.6 2.8 27.7
CLG -5.4 19.4 -0.6 5.1 18.5
OMA 28.9 -10.4 -1.1 -0.4 17.0
SA 25.5 -8.4 0.1 -3.2 14.1
JAX -6.0 16.5 0.1 2.1 12.7
HNT 13.4 -8.5 -0.4 4.5 9.1
WIC 8.2 -4.2 0.5 2.5 7.0
NSV 0.2 4.8 0.2 -1.5 3.7
EDM -6.4 4.0 1.8 3.9 3.3
CCJ 20.6 -20.7 0.6 2.4 2.8
VAN -0.6 8.6 -1.1 -4.1 2.8
CAL 15.0 -10.0 -1.0 -3.4 0.6
BRK -11.9 -0.3 -0.3 8.0 -4.4
YS9 5.0 -7.1 -0.1 -2.8 -5.0
SFB -23.4 19.8 0.9 -2.9 -5.6
HAW 4.4 -2.5 -0.2 -7.4 -5.7
SEA 7.8 -16.2 -0.5 -0.4 -9.3
DES -8.8 -5.2 -0.7 -1.1 -15.8
MNT -13.5 -0.5 0.6 -3.8 -17.2
LV 3.7 -16.0 1.5 -8.1 -18.8
VAL -4.6 -17.3 -0.1 -1.7 -23.7
TWC -20.1 -10.6 -1.2 -1.5 -33.4
ATC -32.8 -4.4 -1.1 -0.5 -38.8
NO -40.3 -7.2 1.8 -3.8 -49.5
MAD -45.3 -0.4 0.0 -6.5 -52.3
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Re: 2038 Defense: Through End of May

Post by HoosierVic » Tue Apr 23, 2019 8:14 pm

Would definitely love to see the UMEBA numbers!

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Re: 2038 Defense: Through End of May

Post by RonCo » Tue Apr 23, 2019 8:23 pm

I posted them through May down in the UMEBA chatter section. Still need to pull game logs for you guys... it takes a little time. :)
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Re: 2038 Defense: Through End of May

Post by Spiccoli » Wed Apr 24, 2019 8:57 am

ae37jr wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:39 pm
RonCo wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 5:30 pm
Here's Twin Cities' chart by zone...it does look like the middle of the infield is the "problem" if you assume sample size of two months is relevant.

Code: Select all

PLAYS	3L	3	34	4	4M	6M	6	56	5	5L
SHAL	0.00	-1.03	-1.08	-6.77	0.25	-0.04	-0.05	0.04	0.70	0.00
MID	0.72	1.11	1.18	-0.93	-3.52	-0.37	-2.72	1.99	1.37	-4.27
DEEP	0.00	-0.40	-1.61	-0.56	-2.11	0.13	0.68	-2.49	-1.21	0.00
It looks as if Wareham is having a bit of a down season defensively. He's still 8/8/9/11, which is perfectly fine with a bat like his IMO. Man has lumped offensively and having a terrible season, so the more offensive Joey Newhouse has stepped in and he is hurting the defense some. It's always a struggle trying to balance offense and defense in this game.
Yeah... with Man not playing, the defense is a mess and now that Wareham is out, it's going to get worse. I'm afraid TWC is in for some rough years ahead, the door is closing.

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