2038 Crowd Sourced Free Agent Pitching Prediction Podcast

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2038 Crowd Sourced Free Agent Pitching Prediction Podcast

Post by Ted » Thu Mar 07, 2019 1:04 am

We were down a host, as Stephen had to cancel. So it's me and Randy, at our curmudgeonly best. This is a bit dry, lots of numbers, but still interesting I think. I've attached a spreadsheet with averages. Also, Randy and I tried to predict whether the players would beat or come in under your predictions.


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Re: 2038 Crowd Sourced Free Agent Pitching Prediction Podcast

Post by agrudez » Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:45 pm

Really enjoyed it, guys. It was very unique, too, with how it was set up to be interactive. I know I listened to it with my spreadsheet I sent Ted up and compared notes.

On Greenwood, I am scared off by the 3rd pitch so I don't actually plan to bid (unless he's still sitting there in March or something), but I just figured with a sparse FA pool a guy coming off a 6.7 WAR season would probably get a decent bidding war going.
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Re: 2038 Crowd Sourced Free Agent Pitching Prediction Podcast

Post by Spiccoli » Thu Mar 07, 2019 3:09 pm

Can't wait to listen to this one! I can't help but think that this might have been a good one to have used a screen capture on. With y'all looking at the players and spreadsheet while discussing it.

But hey... I'm not complaining, just a suggestion. I'm really loving these podcasts. If I didn't sound like I was still in junior high, I might be able to build the courage to jump in on one.

I hate the sound of my voice so much, there's no way I could listen to one afterwards... lol. I know it's all in my head though. Maybe I could use a voice changer to make sound deeper than it really is...

:P

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Re: 2038 Crowd Sourced Free Agent Pitching Prediction Podcast

Post by Ted » Thu Mar 07, 2019 3:46 pm

Spiccoli wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 3:09 pm
Can't wait to listen to this one! I can't help but think that this might have been a good one to have used a screen capture on. With y'all looking at the players and spreadsheet while discussing it.

But hey... I'm not complaining, just a suggestion. I'm really loving these podcasts. If I didn't sound like I was still in junior high, I might be able to build the courage to jump in on one.

I hate the sound of my voice so much, there's no way I could listen to one afterwards... lol. I know it's all in my head though. Maybe I could use a voice changer to make sound deeper than it really is...

:P
You're welcome any time, man.
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Re: 2038 Crowd Sourced Free Agent Pitching Prediction Podcast

Post by Ted » Thu Mar 07, 2019 3:47 pm

Also you CAN follow along with the attached spreadsheet. Although I see how screen capture would be cool, too. I didn't give out the spreadsheet Randy and I were using because I didn't want to give away people's estimates too much, although I could see many ways to work around it.
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Re: 2038 Crowd Sourced Free Agent Pitching Prediction Podcast

Post by Lane » Thu Mar 07, 2019 5:01 pm

Great job guys. Sorry I couldn't make it, but thanks for the well wishes. Interview went great and glad with any luck I'll get an offer soon.
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Re: 2038 Crowd Sourced Free Agent Pitching Prediction Podcast

Post by 7teen » Thu Mar 07, 2019 8:38 pm

Spiccoli wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 3:09 pm
Can't wait to listen to this one! I can't help but think that this might have been a good one to have used a screen capture on. With y'all looking at the players and spreadsheet while discussing it.

But hey... I'm not complaining, just a suggestion. I'm really loving these podcasts. If I didn't sound like I was still in junior high, I might be able to build the courage to jump in on one.

I hate the sound of my voice so much, there's no way I could listen to one afterwards... lol. I know it's all in my head though. Maybe I could use a voice changer to make sound deeper than it really is...

:P
Same way but I sound like some hillbilly from the south. Oh wait. I guess I am.

Finally just said the heck with it. Been doing a ton of online radio for our local high school now and people around here seem ok with my voice. Haha
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Re: 2038 Crowd Sourced Free Agent Pitching Prediction Podcast

Post by Lane » Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:44 pm

I give zero F's about SP stamina so Rios is a great fit in LBC
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Re: 2038 Crowd Sourced Free Agent Pitching Prediction Podcast

Post by usnspecialist » Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:51 pm

Lane wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:44 pm
I give zero F's about SP stamina so Rios is a great fit in LBC
Yep that makes perfect sense for you.
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Re: 2038 Crowd Sourced Free Agent Pitching Prediction Podcast

Post by Rubaboo » Fri Mar 08, 2019 5:46 pm

Good work guys, wish I could've joined you but having my boys during the day makes that nearly impossible.

I find your mentions of GMs essentially getting into bidding wars over guys interesting because, due to the sim scheduling, it literally can't happen. We sim a good chunk of time in the FA sims, so guys get offers, favor the best one, and don't hear a response for something like 2 in game weeks. Makes it hard to have actual 'bidding wars' over free agents in my opinion.

Take Compton for instance:

He signed with LBC for 6/$36. I had offered him 4/$32. If he had come back and he had an offer he liked better I would've upped the dollars or added a year and we get some back and forth.

Not saying the offseason should be 50 sims or anything, but passing less game time early in FA might make it more interesting.
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Re: 2038 Crowd Sourced Free Agent Pitching Prediction Podcast

Post by Ted » Fri Mar 08, 2019 7:14 pm

Rubaboo wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 5:46 pm
Good work guys, wish I could've joined you but having my boys during the day makes that nearly impossible.

I find your mentions of GMs essentially getting into bidding wars over guys interesting because, due to the sim scheduling, it literally can't happen. We sim a good chunk of time in the FA sims, so guys get offers, favor the best one, and don't hear a response for something like 2 in game weeks. Makes it hard to have actual 'bidding wars' over free agents in my opinion.

Take Compton for instance:

He signed with LBC for 6/$36. I had offered him 4/$32. If he had come back and he had an offer he liked better I would've upped the dollars or added a year and we get some back and forth.

Not saying the offseason should be 50 sims or anything, but passing less game time early in FA might make it more interesting.
This is a good point. I just it's more a mental bidding war than a real one. I would also support game time between FA sims and more sims. You could scale it. Short intervals for maybe 3-4 sims, then long ones for sims 5-6, etc. I really like the idea of more negotiating. I don't know how short you'd have to go to get it to work though. If it's only a couple days, that might not be possible without slowing things to a crawl.
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Re: 2038 Crowd Sourced Free Agent Pitching Prediction Podcast

Post by handaspencer » Fri Mar 08, 2019 7:38 pm

Agree 100% the faster sim schedule impacts FA bidding. I would favor a slower pace until at least the bigger names sign then speed it up some once the dominos start to fall. I won’t be bidding on the big names but would enjoy watching the bidding.

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Re: 2038 Crowd Sourced Free Agent Pitching Prediction Podcast

Post by recte44 » Fri Mar 08, 2019 8:44 pm

Ted wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 7:14 pm
Rubaboo wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 5:46 pm
Good work guys, wish I could've joined you but having my boys during the day makes that nearly impossible.

I find your mentions of GMs essentially getting into bidding wars over guys interesting because, due to the sim scheduling, it literally can't happen. We sim a good chunk of time in the FA sims, so guys get offers, favor the best one, and don't hear a response for something like 2 in game weeks. Makes it hard to have actual 'bidding wars' over free agents in my opinion.

Take Compton for instance:

He signed with LBC for 6/$36. I had offered him 4/$32. If he had come back and he had an offer he liked better I would've upped the dollars or added a year and we get some back and forth.

Not saying the offseason should be 50 sims or anything, but passing less game time early in FA might make it more interesting.
This is a good point. I just it's more a mental bidding war than a real one. I would also support game time between FA sims and more sims. You could scale it. Short intervals for maybe 3-4 sims, then long ones for sims 5-6, etc. I really like the idea of more negotiating. I don't know how short you'd have to go to get it to work though. If it's only a couple days, that might not be possible without slowing things to a crawl.
Considering the complaining there was about simply splitting up the playoffs into two sims apiece, I doubt this would go over well.
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Re: 2038 Crowd Sourced Free Agent Pitching Prediction Podcast

Post by Rubaboo » Fri Mar 08, 2019 8:45 pm

Ha. Complaining? On THESE boards? Perish the thought...
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Re: 2038 Crowd Sourced Free Agent Pitching Prediction Podcast

Post by Lane » Fri Mar 08, 2019 9:17 pm

It's not like every free agent takes the first offer. It takes a few seasons to really get the hang of how this league does free agency. You've got to get a feel for what kind of players as what kind of deals might take longer vs who might settle easier.

I'm not gonna give away all my secrets but one thing that socks be obvious is that you've gotta come out of the gate strong.
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