Early Look: 1995 Finances

[mad0die]

We're all running a little blind financial-wise this season so with the draft looming and the uncertainty of the signing bonuses I thought we better take a quick look. First of all, I think your current budgets are pretty damn inaccurate and not a good estimate of how much revenue you can expect to make this season. If you are counting on your budget as your expenditure guideline, most of you are going to be very disappointed. At current revenue rates, I'm estimating that 17 teams will finish more than $5million below their budget in revenue (excluding any playoff revenue). The current season budgets do not seem to match last season's revenue figures. I'm not sure what budget option was chosen for this league - maybe we are letting the imaginary owners set it rather than have it based on revenue (which I think is a mistake).

So, if you can't use your current budget as an accurate guideline of your finances this season what can you use? Well, I projected everyone's revenue for the 1995 season. Your revenue is your $30,000,000 fixed broadcasting plus an estimated merchandising and gate revenues based on what you've earning rate so far. I made no attempt to estimate playoff revenues that 8 teams will earn this year.

Estimated Gross Revenue
LOU $89,495,368
VAL $88,843,506
HAW $86,079,687
CGY $85,097,675
CHI $80,411,157
HAK $78,784,802
LV $77,193,941
DM $76,768,901
BIR $74,600,886
PHX $73,787,220
LB $73,410,399
VAN $73,220,799
CAL $70,520,098
WAS $70,089,880
OMA $69,520,160
AUS $65,424,809
MAD $65,410,080
BUF $64,702,034
SEA $62,851,207
NO $62,793,524
MON $61,687,203
GRE $60,798,393
BAL $53,700,050
ATC $49,900,042

How much you earn is only half of the puzzle however, we need to compare those earnings against your expected expenses to get an estimated profit. In order estimate your expenses I take the expenses you've accumulated so far and factor in how much more you will pay out the remainder of the season based on your current payroll. Raising or lowering payroll will affect this estimate. Cutting a player and eating his contract will affect this estimate. But this is the clearest I can get right now. Also, I making no attempt to try to estimate how much your amateur signing bonuses are going to cost you. Remember, that you will have to pay any player drafted in the first 5 rounds of the draft a signing bonus.

Estimated Profit (Revenues - Expenses)
LV $27,119,130
BUF $21,746,664
GRE $20,483,467
VAN $20,025,810
WAS $11,733,938
PHX $11,128,286
HAK $7,579,088
LB $5,548,282
OMA $4,113,692
HAW $3,613,117
VAL $3,330,605
CHI $1,598,236
LOU $713,692
BAL $131,268
AUS $(103,728)
CGY $(293,221)
BIR $(2,811,203)
SEA $(4,852,265)
CAL $(5,502,991)
NO $(6,903,292)
ATC $(6,959,315)
DM $(8,269,041)
MAD $(11,053,933)
MON $(17,537,574)

Those are a bit disturbing as we have ten teams that are projected to spend more than make this season and that doesn't include any ammy draft signing bonuses!

There is one final piece of our financial puzzle: your current cash. You can build up to $25,000,000 in cash reserves to cover season financial losses. Some of us have a nice chunk of cash to rely on to keep us afloat. Some of us are already in the negative cash-wise. So, for the final listing I take your estimated profit above and add it to your current cash to give you an idea of how much cash you will roll into next season with. Again, keep in mind this is an early estimate.

Next Season Cash
LV $42,823,572
BUF $39,743,025
VAL $28,330,605
LOU $25,713,692
OMA $24,764,159
HAK $24,051,529
AUS $23,549,208
PHX $17,992,310
BAL $17,015,651
GRE $16,693,904
LB $15,944,724
VAN $15,074,023
MAD $13,946,067
CHI $9,573,783
WAS $6,733,938
SEA $5,674,703
ATC $3,324,877
BIR $2,614,391
CGY $207,450
HAW $(1,386,883)
CAL $(8,417,592)
DM $(9,118,784)
NO $(10,235,730)
MON $(22,537,574)

A few teams at the top may have profits chopped off to get them down to the league max $25,000,000 cash carryover, but we also have some teams at the bottom (especially Montreal) that appear to be in pretty bad financial shape at the moment.

Anyway, hope you find this of value and I will update the numbers in 2 months after we've all paid out our amateur signing bonuses.

[elligator]

Thanks for this! Perhaps we should look at the options to address the budget. But in the end, each owner should be able to manage himself...and if the team keeps losing money, the owner will probably adjust the budget likewise.

[ronzonie7]

Man, I lucked out with my setup. I think I can add some pieces down the stretch.

[mad0die]

I ate some contracts knowing that I had revenue to blow. Now I'm hoping to offset my signing bonuses with staying in the playoff race in the 2nd half of the season.

[Fat Nige]

nice one, Omaha could be in reasonable shape if we don't spend too much on the end of season party

[recte44]

I ate some contracts knowing that I had revenue to blow. Now I'm hoping to offset my signing bonuses with staying in the playoff race in the 2nd half of the season.

Folks will need to look to trading and keeping a keen eye on their ticket prices vs attendance down the stretch for sure!