Johnson League, Atlantic Division Analysis and Predictions

[scottsdale_joe]

Johnson League, Atlantic Division Analysis and Predictions

Last year every team in this division finished over .500. Louisville won 95 games and failed to make the playoffs. Baltimore went to the World Series before finally losing to Hackensack.

Baltimore Monarchs

The defending champion Monarchs won the division by a single game last year. The starting rotation is very strong. Javy Cordero, Rick Cushing, Jake Kestle, and Larry Lasalle won 57 games between them last year while losing only 36. Finding a reliable fifth starter should be their only problem. Alex Kapranos saved 44 games but he blew 10 saves and lost seven games as well. His ERA of 5.10 was not awe inspiring. The heir to his closer position is 20-year-old Enrique Reyna, but is he ready? The key to relief success may be how much 22-year-old Laddy Charleston improves over his brief unimpressive cup of coffee last September. So the bullpen has numerous question marks.

The position players are a strong crew, except that catching is an obvious weak point. Doug Flowers, Tyrone Vanslyke, and Rande Sorbo leave a lot to be desired. The infield looks very strong anchored by young Mark Bruner at the keystone sack. The outfield is loaded with plenty of players who can hit over .300. Veteran Mike Clark is a definite All Star.

Greenville Moonshiners

The Shiners finished one game back of the Monarchs in 1997. They too have a solid rotation with five guys who all won at least 13 games led by Jay Lee (16-2, 2.87). McKinley Washington closes and blew only 2 of 30 attempts last year. George Fagg and Ken Logan are solid relievers as well.

Offensively Greenville looks nowhere as strong as Baltimore. Catching is a weakness here as well, maybe even more so than Baltimore. Jake Urban leads the infield (37 home runs, .300 average), but the skill level drops off after him. Jack See is solid but he’s 34 now. A lot rests on the success of young Roman Empire. Dan Manville, Aaron Hayes, and Reddie Ray make up a solid outfield, but 34-year-old Ray will miss the first 100 days of the season with a broken bone. The outfield reserves leave something to be desired, but someone will have to fill in until Ray returns.

Louisville Sluggers

Just two games behind Baltimore with 95 wins, the Sluggers were devastated to miss the playoffs. A new General Manager takes over this season. Luke Nastay and John Doherty have the most talent among the pitchers. Nastay struggled last year with a 15-15 mark and 4.35 ERA. Third starter Steve DiBartolomeo went 19-10 despite an ERA approaching 5.00. After them the talent drops off markedly. Kurt Hass is a solid closer but he blew 8 opportunities last year (out of 48 tries). His 4.50 ERA is a cause for concern. The rest of the pen could be classified as mediocre.

Rick Mascarenas is a solid catcher offensively and defensively. First baseman Akiru Matsumoto is back in Louisville after a year in Des Moines. He can hit with the best of them but struggles in the field. Ken Sobah is a brilliant shortstop, and Rob Van Winkle has few peers at second on either offense or defense. Third base is a problem. The success of the outfield depends on how much improvement young Pio Vallejo shows to supplement the fine hitting of Clarence Blankenship.

Washington Bobwhites

The cellar dwelling Bobwhites won 83 games in the league’s toughest division after placing first the year before. Shane Christen, Ken Howell, and Hugh Wiggins provide a solid basis for the rotation. But finding reliable fourth and fifth starters may prove to be a problem. At age 24 closer Brendan Meyer should only get better. But the rest of the bullpen strikes no fear into enemy batters.

Offensively the outfield lacks any star quality. Hank Carl was the leading hitter amongst the outfielders last year at .292 and he’s 35 years old now. The infield, on the other hand, is strong. First baseman Neil McKinney hit 60 homers last year while knocking in 139. His offense makes up for his lack of speed and klutziness in the field. Waichirou Moronobu is a classy shortstop with tons of ability. Third baseman George Goutones leaves a lot to be desired defensively, but he had a banner year at the plate in 1997 with a .327 average after two subpar seasons. All in all there are a lot of questions to be answered in Washington before the Bobwhites challenge for the title again.

Prediction

Baltimore and Greenville will challenge for the title once again with Baltimore prevailing once again. Louisville doesn’t look strong enough to stay as close as last year. Washington will have to settle for last once again.

[recte44]

Defintely the strongest division in the MBBA, still, in my opinion.

Nice writeup Joe!