2065 Preview: Never Bet Against the Hustlers

[Trebro]

2065 Las Vegas Hustlers Preview

Well, I think pretty much everyone knows by now but in case you're not active on the Discord, didn't see my opening team news, or missed the amazing preview Charlotte did of the Nine, there's been a friendly bet between Matt and myself – if I don't win 82 games this year, I lose the Nine to him and move over to Last Vegas.

Gauntlet dropped.

Gauntlet accepted.

Well, my plan is to be in Yellow Springs until our Korean game overlords stop making OOTP, but one never knows what will happen when the ones and zeroes get going. So I thought it might be a good idea to get a gander at what's been a consistent top team in my time here in the BBA.

How are the Hustlers lining up as they prepare to try to get back into the Championship picture for 2065? Let's take a look. I absolutely did use Matt's own posts to help make some guesses as to his plans.

Starting Pitching or, A Bit of Old and New

The Hustlers went all in on Dirk Bessi, who then proceeded to do the thing we were all worried he might do, namely have a season-ending injury. He was going to help anchor a veteran staff, but that hope has been dashed, along with fifteen percent of Las Vegas's salary cap. That doesn't matter a lot right now, because they're still about 10 million under the limit. But it could factor in if they're looking to trade to get into/hold a playoff spot.

The remaining pitchers were put on a six man rotation, so I'm not entirely sure I'm predicting correctly, but here's how I see the lineup going:

Jim Fleming should anchor the staff now that Bessi is out, instead of serving as the number two guy in a strong combo. He came over in a deadline deal in 2061 from Charlotte and been 38-26 in his three full seasons working with Matt. In two of those years, including last season, he lead the league in k/9. E is 34 but with no major warning signs and is playing in a contract year. If he keeps up the pace, he'll help the team go far – and get himself some bank.

Newer to the Hustlers is GBC import Afzul Chishti, who played very well for them in 2064, going 12-9 with a 3.74 ERA, 90 FIP-, and 4.9 rWAR. He'll be expected to keep that up on a team with playoff intentions. He's started to lose something off his movement, which might be something to watch, but he's otherwise looking good at age 33. His leadership skills should also help if things get rough.

The one issue I see is that after these two, it's a little dicier, and in the BBA, it really feels like you need at least three top line starters to be in the deep playoff picture.

Lucas Wood has amazing control (1.7 bb/9, his best ever), but he has an okay 1.30 WHIP and 4.47 ERA, though his FIP- was 89 and his FIP was 3.90, indicating he had some hard luck on the diamond with the team around him crapping out. He'll need to be a little better if he's Last Vegas's number 3.

I have a feeling Yasin Numair will get a shot as the 4/5 guy, given his strong spring and promising development numbers. If they fill out, Numair is going to be a really successful part of the rotation. That might take some time in AAA, but I think he breaks camp and spends most of the year in Sin City.

Rahman Muslim will get a lot of "rah rah" from the fans, as the BBA's #66 prospect, who had a cup of coffee in 2064, likely is the other 4/5 guy who might need a bit more time depending on how things go early. His biggest issue is lacking a really good third pitch, but he's not being asked to be the start of the show.

If either Numair or Muslim falter in April, I think Fernando Rodríguez, who was doing well for me in Yellow Springs as a minor/major signing before getting hurt in July, will come up to ensure he doesn't opt out of his new minor/major contract with the team he spend 2063 on.

The Betting Line: Age might be an issue here, given OOTP's current laser focus on making the league younger. But if the older players hold serve and the two young guys keep improving, playing the Hustlers will be just as difficult as ever.

The Bullpen, or Gonzales and His Amazing Friends

Rafael Gonzáles, Matt's long-time closer, is back again, though he struggled a bit in 2064. They need the 75 or so FIP- guy, not the 100 they got last season. He also blew 8 saves and had 12 meltdowns against just 28 shut downs. Losing games late might be the difference between a bye and a buy-in come playoff time.

Juan Alonzo, traded by Louisville to Las Vegas in 2063, looks like a set-up stud to me who might even move into a closer role, especially if Gonzales starts to struggle. 10 stuff, led by a deadly slider/cutter combo. Just a great guy to come in with a lead.

Can't use either of those two? Here comes Augusto Domínguez, the third of Matt's trio of back-end studs. Deadly fastball/slider combo with amazing control and the ability to ensure he doesn't give up a bomb to blow the game (0.7 HR/9 last year).

The rest is too hard to know for sure. I would expect Pepe Rivera, Logan Hill, and Claudio Rodríguez to make it. Plus, from what I know about Matt at this point in watching him for over 10 seasons now,is that the rest of the pen will change over the season depending on who is doing well. His key is those top three guys, and it's hard to doubt them.

The Betting Line: Man, that trio of Gonzales, Alonzo, and Dominguez is just sick. The rest are probably just going to be a cast of thousands, but Matt always makes it work. Get behind by the seventh inning and you're in big trouble in Sin City.

The Offense, or Youth Movement Time

We spent years watching Tom Rudge and others win game after game for the Hustlers. Well, now we're going to watch a lineup that I think will be all under-30 year olds try to step in and provide the offense for that pitching staff to defend every night. Can this group help get leads to that killer back end bullpen? I think so, but there might be some growing pains.

At catcher, Ricardo Castillo and Rafael Herrera, 24 each, will get the first shot at being the duo. Castillo has some strong power from the backstop and did well in limited action last year. I think he'll be the one Matt leans on, given he's said he wants more power in the lineup.

Alonso Flinn, also 24, played extremely well for the Hustlers last year, proving he should be their 1st baseman of the future. He doesn't hit a lot of homers (just 20 last season in 550 AB), but he had an OPS of 127 and 3.3 WAR, which is a great thing to have, especially when he bats .311.

Armando Díaz is 25, and he had 200 hits last season to lead the Johnson. He split time between SS and 2B, but really should only be playing second. Dude had 7.1 WAR and OPS+ of 148. That's elite, man.

Third base is a bit of a weak spot. "Old" at 27, Iván Alvarado wasn't terrible, but he wasn't conquering anything, either. His WAR of zero makes that clear. Signed away from Brook Park, he had a rough 2064 and is on a bit of a decline arc despite his age (3.4 WAR, 1.3 WAR, now 0.0 WAR). This is a position I can see Matt trying to upgrade, but it won't kill him to have a weak spot, given the strength elsewhere.

José Cervantes has big shoes to fill, and really, really bad intangibles. Another "older" player (27), he arrived via a trade with Rosenblatt, who had in turn traded for him from Calgary. The main reason for the switch was to upgrade the shortstop position from a defensive perspective. I think that will happen, though it might show more in the WHIP column for the Hustlers instead of the WAR column for Cervantes. His .252 career batting average will work just fine as long as he's where ground balls go to die. But if things aren't going well, keep an eye on those bad orange notes on his player screen.

Roberto Hampton will once again take control of center field. He won't shine with the bat (career .229 hitter with an OPS+ of 69, which is not very nice after all) but he has a career 81.2 ZR in center, with a 1.058 efficiency and only 17 errors in 2512 chances. Yeah, that'll work.

The corners are a bit harder to judge. I think Roberto Delgado will be there in the mix, at least to start, despite having a horrible spring. He's been around since 2059 and seems to be fairly reliable if not used every day. Sloan Ritchie, just 22, did well as a regular last season (.277, 105 OPS+). Chris Broadus hasn't played above AA but Matt praised him when previewing his own team. He's absolutely part of the picture. And of course, there's the guy below:

The Two-Way Man

Signed away from Hawaii, José Ordóñez is a two-way players who might be playing his way into a regular role with the Hustlers in the field and on the diamond, depending on how things go for the regulars. He barely has been used as a pitcher, but that versatility might help Las Vegas when it comes to carrying either an extra hitter or extra pitcher. He's being paid a lot so there's a need to get use from him. I find these players intriguing, even if I don't tend to use them much.

The Betting Line: Matt's worried about catcher, but I'm more concerned about the hot corner for him. The outfield also feels thin to me at the corners, but the good news is all three of those positions are fairly easy to replace if needed. And I love how young everyone is here. This group must just be getting going and that should scare everyone in the Johnson.

Place Your Wager: I'm setting the over/under on the Hustlers at 87 wins and a playoff spot. As I often like to say, "Never bet against the Hustlers." This year, I see no reason to feel differently.

[bigmike13]

Exceptional as always! Great read

[jiminyhopkins]

Bet

[BaseClogger]

If they ever stopped making OOTP we’d just play this version for years, right?

[BaseClogger]

I’ll take the over, if just barely. I think the Hustlers position group will be fine. Like you said, easy to find answers on the corners. I’m worried about the rotation. Excellent preview!