Dington wrote: ↑Mon Sep 15, 2025 1:40 pm
Not sure he's worth a penny even if he fully develops. He needs some bumps, but I cannot figure out why the game rates him so highly. I had A MiLC offer out on him, but don't see how you came across this valuation. You should be able to get guys of this caliber for $500k.
I admit, I did not expect this level of pushback. But let's investigate your hypothesis. How scarce is Kunkel's talent? Here is a list of all the BBA players with the same or better ratings (Stuff of 6, HRA of 8, PBABIP of 6, control of 3, #pitches at least 3, stamina below 4:
| Pitcher | Age | T | OVR | STU | CON | PBABIP | HRR | FB | PIT | VELO | STM | Salary | Total | Term |
|---|
| Gheorghe Sollomovici | 22 | L | 80 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 96-98 | 3 | $500K | $500K | 1 |
| Dave Furman | 24 | R | 70 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 94-96 | 2 | $500K | $500K | 1 |
| Enrique Villarreal | 26 | L | 65 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 98-100 | 2 | $2,160K | $2,160K | 1 |
| José Torres | 24 | L | 65 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | - | 5 | 95-97 | 3 | $1,420K | $1,420K | 1 |
| Claudio Torres | 22 | L | 55 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 96-98 | 2 | $500K | $500K | 1 |
| Bob Butler | 31 | R | 55 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 93-95 | 1 | $1,880K | $5,640K | 3 |
| Tom Brothers | 24 | L | 45 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 95-97 | 3 | $500K | $500K | 1 |
| Jack Kunkel | 23 | L | 40 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 98-100 | 1 | $4,500K | $19,500K | 6 |
Sollomovici, Furman, Torres, and Brothers are not yet arbitration eligible and have never been exposed to free agency.
Villarreal is one year into arbitration and is estimated to receive $4.642 million next season.
Torres is expected to receive $2.884 million in arbitration next season.
Butler signed a three-year contract for $1.88 million per season.
None of these guys are perfect comps for Kunkel.
I knew when I made the offer that it was an overpay. That's how you sign free agents. We were not the only team in pursuit of his services. My bid was designed to be more attractive than the existing bid that he had. It's a declining salary contract, $4.5/3.75/3.0/2.75, with two team options of $2.75. My front office projects him at $9.5 in arbitration in 2070 if the contract goes all six years. With the six year deal, we lock in an affordable annual salary.
Of course, if he fails as a prospect, we've lost our $14 million investment. I've lost more than that on a failed IAFA. Is it a risk? Absolutely. Is it as risky as throwing $14 million at an IAFA? Certainly not.
It's no secret that we highly value HRA. Kunkel's HRA of 8/9 is incredibly alluring. He's a lefty. That's kinda hot. He throws 100 mph but keeps the ball in the park? That's sorcery.
Developing control from 3 to 4 is rated as medium difficulty in the development lab. I think he'll get there. Would we prefer control of 5 or better? Sure, but for a low stamina reliever with electric stuff, I don't think that is crucial.
We all have different lenses through which we evaluate players. I may be wearing rose-colored glasses but I am smitten with Jack. I think he'll be a long term asset for us.
