Buyer Beware: The '63-'64 Free Agent Class

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Graham
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Buyer Beware: The '63-'64 Free Agent Class

Post by Graham » Sat Aug 09, 2025 6:58 pm

Free agency is always a balancing act between potential reward and inevitable risk, but this winter’s class makes that dance even trickier. The talent pool is shallower than usual, yet the laws of supply and demand refuse to take a holiday. Even without marquee names, the scarcity of quality options ensures that some players will draw more attention (and dollars) than their resumes truly merit. As a GBC general manager who couldn’t get most of these guys to return a carrier pigeon, much less a phone call, I can assure you there’s no ulterior motive here, just a public service announcement for front offices everywhere. Here’s a closer look at some of the most tempting, and potentially treacherous, names on the board this winter:

Tim Bartlett
  • Released by Valencia on November 11th, Bartlett brings above-average pop for a third baseman and a sharp batting eye (career .332 OBP, 8-rated discipline), but the overall profile suggests a mid-tier regular rather than a difference-maker. His 2063 line (.238/.304/.464, 20 HR) was right in line with his career norms, providing solid power with a low average, however his production skews heavily toward hitting left-handed pitching (.938 OPS vs LHP) while struggling mightily against righties (.625 OPS). That makes him vulnerable to platoon deployment, limiting his everyday value. Defensively, Bartlett is competent at third and serviceable at second, but his speed is virtually non-existent, offering no baserunning threat. At 32, his skill set is unlikely to expand, and reports of not being a leader in the clubhouse means he’s not bringing off-field intangibles to offset a middling WAR track record (only one season above 2.5 WAR since 2060). As a free agent, he fits as a short-term, matchup-conscious corner infielder, but teams paying for a middle-of-the-order anchor will be overbuying on the power numbers alone.
Carlos Berrera
  • Sure to catch the eye of every front office obsessed with keeping the ball in the yard, Berrera’s excellent movement and microscopic 0.6 HR/9 for his career will have suitors lining up this winter. But while the homer prevention is real, the rest of the profile carries risk. His 4.38 ERA in 2063 came with a modest 4.5 K/9, meaning he leans heavily on contact management, and a .293 BABIP suggests some batted balls didn’t find gloves. Berrera’s track record is volatile, with a standout 16-win season in 2061 sandwiched between more pedestrian years, and his control can waver—career 2.8 BB/9, with spikes over 3.0 in down seasons. At 32, there’s not much projection left, and without strikeout stuff, any slip in his command or groundball efficiency could turn him into a back-end innings-eater in a hurry. The movement makes him tempting, but buyers banking on a consistent No. 2 starter may be disappointed if the rest of the arsenal doesn’t play up.
Wafid Bishr
  • At 36 years old, Bishr is still producing at a respectable clip, but the warning signs for general managers are hard to ignore. His .296 average and .871 OPS in 2063 look solid on the surface, yet both represent a step back from his peak seasons, and his September slump (.256/.293/.397) was a glaring reminder that decline can set in quickly. Bishr’s power numbers have slipped from his prime, and his defense at first base is merely adequate, offering little positional flexibility. He’s also coming off a three-year stretch in which his stolen base efficiency cratered, suggesting his speed, a secondary weapon earlier in his career, is fading fast. While his work ethic is unquestioned, any multi-year deal would be betting against the clock, and history rarely favors aging sluggers in the BBA.
Joe King
  • 174 wins. 3.41 career ERA. These are impressive numbers, but context matters, and King's home park in Sacramento has been one of the most extreme pitcher-friendly environments in the league. That’s important, because his road ERA over the last two seasons has been noticeably higher, and his underlying peripherals (career 7.0 K/9, 2.4 BB/9) suggest more of a dependable innings-eater than a shutdown #2 or #3 starter. At 34, his velocity and stuff are holding steady, but a drop-off would make him vulnerable, especially in a neutral or hitter-friendly ballpark. While his leadership and work ethic are pluses, any team signing him must weigh whether his results will translate away from Sacramento’s forgiving dimensions. In the wrong setting, King could look more like a veteran #4 than a pitcher you trust (and pay up for) in a playoff series.
Miguel Martinez
  • Positional versatility and past flashes of above-average power make Martinez intriguing, but his offensive track record screams inconsistency. In 2063, he limped to a .238/.307/.467 line with a pedestrian 106 OPS+, and his production has see-sawed wildly from year to year, mixing solid seasons with others where he’s been a near-automatic out. His splits show he’s far more effective against lefties, but struggles badly versus right-handers (.220/.281/.437), limiting his everyday value. At 32, Martinez’s speed and athleticism remain strengths, yet his high strikeout totals and low on-base skills mean those tools often go unused. There’s a real risk he’ll command a bigger payday than his streaky bat warrants.
Jason Newton
  • Newton brings a solid track record of steady production, but his profile comes with clear buyer-beware flags. His offensive ceiling is limited, as 2063's .795 OPS was exactly in line with his career norms, and he’s topped 15 home runs just once. At 33, his speed (35 steals in 2063) is still a weapon, but age-related decline could erode that quickly, and it’s a major part of his overall value (led the league this past season with 13 triples.) Defensively, he’s barely passable at second base but unlikely to provide much positional versatility beyond 1B/2B. For a player likely to seek a multi-year deal in his mid-30s, the risk is paying for reliability that could fade into replacement-level production in short order.
Blair Peyton
  • Even BBA GMs know that Peyton has been a superstar in the GBC, boasting elite contact skills, blazing speed, and gaudy offensive numbers, but transitioning to the BBA could expose cracks in his game. While his .364 average and .941 OPS in 2063 look MVP-caliber, they came in a league where pitching talent is a clear step below the BBA standard. His power is modest at best and pitchers at the next level will be far less forgiving to someone whose extra-base output is driven mostly by doubles. The high stolen base totals (often 80+) are impressive, but elite BBA batteries will test both his jump and efficiency. Any team paying like he’s a BBA All-Star from day one risks finding out that “GBC elite” doesn’t always translate to “BBA elite.”
Nick Rivers
  • Entering free agency in a market starved for starting pitching is never a bad thing, which all but guarantees a bidding war for Rivers. But scarcity shouldn’t blind buyers to the risks: his career 4.43 ERA and 100 ERA+ mark him as a league-average arm over the long haul. At 34, Rivers still shows durability, eclipsing 180 innings in four of the last five full seasons, but his walk rate (3.0 BB/9) and contact-leaning approach leave little margin for error. He’s prone to blow-up stretches (this past April’s 6.67 ERA is a reminder) and his career WHIP north of 1.40 underscores the traffic he allows. While the lack of alternatives will inflate his market value, any multi-year commitment means betting that Rivers’ age-34 stuff can hold up under the strain of top-rotation expectations he’s rarely met. In short, he’s dependable in volume, not dominance.
Max Shepperson
  • Any front office could grab Shepperson now, as he's currently on the open market. His left-handed power and plate discipline (career .385 OBP, 10-rated eye) make him an intriguing middle-of-the-order bat, but the risk factors are hard to ignore. His 2063 BBA stint was limited to just 49 games, and while the .784 OPS was serviceable, it was a steep drop from his peak years in Rocky Mountain, where the hitter-friendly park may have inflated his numbers. At 32, his defensive value is minimal, limiting him to left field with poor range, and his speed offers little secondary contribution. Shepperson’s production has also been volatile, swinging from his MVP season (203 OPS in 2060) to replacement-level in recent seasons. There’s a real question about how he’d adjust to a new environment, especially one less favorable for lefty pull power. A team paying for his Silk-winning stat line could end up with a league-average DH profile instead.

In the end, free agency is as much about restraint as it is about aggression. The players above have name recognition, past glory, or skill sets that can tempt even the most disciplined front office into overextending. But contracts are signed in the optimism of winter and judged in the cold light of August standings. For every veteran who squeezes one more great year out of their legs or arm, there’s another who turns into an expensive reminder that decline waits for no one. The smartest buyers will remember that the real value lies not in the biggest splash, but in knowing when to keep the checkbook closed.

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Re: Buyer Beware: The '63-'64 Free Agent Class

Post by BaseClogger » Sat Aug 09, 2025 10:08 pm

Well put. When considering trading for an upgrade, it’s always tempting to think “I have plenty of cash. I’ll just buy my solution in FA” which worked when I joined in the early 2050s. These days you just can’t rely on FA to fix holes. It’s purely bargain hunting to supplement what you already have.
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Re: Buyer Beware: The '63-'64 Free Agent Class

Post by Trebro » Sat Aug 09, 2025 10:38 pm

BaseClogger wrote:
Sat Aug 09, 2025 10:08 pm
Well put. When considering trading for an upgrade, it’s always tempting to think “I have plenty of cash. I’ll just buy my solution in FA” which worked when I joined in the early 2050s. These days you just can’t rely on FA to fix holes. It’s purely bargain hunting to supplement what you already have.
It is absolutely very different from the 2050s, and I will fully admit I was probably a little slow on the uptake in that area.

My bet is we see a few people go whole hog and hope to milk out some playoff success in 64/65 (while understanding that this also means likely pain in 66 and beyond), a few people pay for a good year by eating the deal as soon as they slide (perpetual playoff teams can do this), and most of the rest of the league waits until the February price drop.

I will fully disclose if we had gotten to 80 wins this past off season I would likely be in that first group. But as it is I probably will dumpster dive and let Wardman yell at me and Valerie question whether or not the team is giving up already.

But then again, Bo may have other ideas...

Good work on this @Graham
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Re: Buyer Beware: The '63-'64 Free Agent Class

Post by jiminyhopkins » Sun Aug 10, 2025 7:14 am

Is anyone going to sink money into Shep, knowing he'll be on the DL for the entirety of the 2064 season?
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Re: Buyer Beware: The '63-'64 Free Agent Class

Post by Chuck V » Sun Aug 10, 2025 1:38 pm

In FA I just remember what happened to LOU last year. They went out and took the risk on Akers and Brown. Both those moves blew up spectacularly. LOU was smart and front loaded the contracts, but they are two examples of Buyer Beware when it comes to FA, especially pitching. They will account for 33 million in payroll this season and it looks like it will be wasted.
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Re: Buyer Beware: The '63-'64 Free Agent Class

Post by BaseClogger » Sun Aug 10, 2025 1:57 pm

I wouldn’t say wasted. They’re still two of the five best starting pitchers in the LOU org. I’d take them for the back end of my rotation (if money weren’t an object).
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Re: Buyer Beware: The '63-'64 Free Agent Class

Post by ae37jr » Sun Aug 10, 2025 3:29 pm

In a vacuum maybe Brown/Akers were bad deals. But Louisville has a ton of young hitters and lacked pitching. By overpaying free agents on front loaded deals, they kept future finances solid and added 2 BBA arms without giving up any prospects.

Starting pitching is really expensive now. I think we are going to see more teams get creative like Hawaii and Bikini are doing with non traditional starters because there just aren't going to be enough to go around and prices are just gonna go up for a bit.
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