2057 - A Bird's Eye View of the Trade Market

[RonCo]

Folks are always worried about the trade market, it seems. As if a large number of trades are the only metric of a “healthy league.” I think that’s wrong, but I get it. I think a league should have as many trades as that league needs to have, assuming the GMs are active and engaged (which I figure is what people mean by a measure of a healthy league – that engaged GMs trade, and that a lack of trades therefore means a lack of engagement). I am, for example, almost always engaged in the league, but my trade record is filled with bursts of output followed by long spans where very little happens.

In other words, I don’t make deals just to make deals.

As a rule.

Anyway, since we’re at the deadline again, I got to looking at the trade boards and realizing exactly how hot things have been. I could go back a little bit further, but the fact is that just in the past two weeks RL (Real Live), the league has seen 22 trades made among thirteen different teams. Those trades moved a total of 57 players (and something around $15-$20million.

If I go back another week RL, I can add ten more deals that expand into three additional teams.

In other words, we’re averaging about three trades every two days.

I think that’s pretty healthy.

If I go all the way back to the beginning of the 2057 season (opening day, and counting the two days before), I get a total of 57 trades this year, that include 19 teams.

Among teams that my quick scan say have not made deals are Jacksonville and New Orleans in the Atlantic – both solid GMs of high engagement who I know make deals when they need to. Rockville, also, though they have been actively trying to move Socrates. Brooklyn, who was so active in Free Agency, has been quiet on the trade market. In the Pacific, it might surprise to see that Las Vegas is not on the trader’s list. I don’t think anyone would suggest Recte isn’t engaged. Mexico City and Edmonton don’t show up on my list. The Aztecs are doing fine, thank you very much. I know Edmonton has been sniffing around. I assume things just haven’t worked out.

The Heartland has been relatively silent, with the GMs of both Des Moines and Chicago either moving on, or having publicly said they were. It’s not shocking then, that trade activity is low there. Both Omaha and Madison have been silent. Madison has never been a big trader (I think), and I assume Omaha is settling in again. The Pacific has had literally every team entering the trade market.

So, yeah.

I think it’s true that a totally dead trade market is a sign of a totally dead league. But I would suggest any discussion of the trade market in the BBA has to walk away with the idea that this league is what it is: a really vibrant place where every GM is doing their best to make their squads better.

And, with 24 hours left until the deadline, I expect we may see even more movement!

[chicoruiz]

I did a quick head count, and by my count 25 of the last 28 players on the Discord trade block were over 30, and many of those are in the final year of their contracts. I love a trade as much as the next guy- maybe more than the next guy- but most of these guys just don’t make sense for a bottom-dweller.

Not a lot of need-for-need trades lately; mostly “try to get a little something for my old guys from a contender” trades. Which is fine…

[Dington]

Nice feature. I expected a bit more trading after finally having a decent draft. Lot of the aging vets have big contracts because there wasn’t much point in rebuilding over the past few seasons. Now it’s tough to move those contracts, but we’ve still had a healthy amount of trading. Though I might not have any holes to fill or upgrade, I’m always available to listen to trades, so bring em by!

[BaseClogger]

Still a lot of talent in free agency.

I’ve been surprised Madison hasn’t posted a block. Jamie Angwin should get them a decent prospect.

[recte44]

I felt compelled to write a Team News explaining why I wasn’t trading.

[RonCo]

Sometimes it just doesn't make sense to be trading like mad.

[BaseClogger]

I’m pretty limited financially. I have $5M in cap space and not really any tradable contracts. I actually had a deal worked out for Shiplack with Yellow Springs but it involved sending them Zwicker and he’s got a NTC. I think the prospects I was offering were slightly better than the price Phoenix ultimately paid.

So catcher was a spot I could improve. CF and SP are the other spots. There haven’t been any impact CFs available. As for starters, I really like some of my younger guys and I’m not afraid to involve them in my playoff push.

But my bullpen’s been great so no open spots there.

[GoldenOne]

Sometimes it just doesn't make sense to be trading like mad.

WRONG!

[GoldenOne]

Its important to note that both Jacksonville and New Orleans do not get on Discord very often/ever (and arent necessarily on the boards a ton either.) So, the quick posting on the Trade Block channel on Discord isnt getting to them. Mexico City is kind of the same way.

As far as Des Moines and Chicago - I've said I'm departing at the end of the season and I continue to make trades. I'm trying to put whoever takes over from me in the best position I can before I depart. (But, this fact is also keeping me from making deals I might try and make otherwise.)

You are correct with Madison. Omaha is just not as engaged as in his previous go-round. Basically, if you are a trader, you generally know who the guys are that you can contact. There are a few guys that you can take a look at and wonder, "why arent they making a deal? They should be/need to be making a deal."

[JimBob2232]

Ya - ive explored a few things - but nothing really jumped out at me.

im more of a message board lurker....dont jump over to discord too often.

That said...if someone has a middle IF - or a good power DH....im all ears

[RonCo]

Its important to note that both Jacksonville and New Orleans do not get on Discord very often/ever (and arent necessarily on the boards a ton either.) So, the quick posting on the Trade Block channel on Discord isnt getting to them. Mexico City is kind of the same way.

Established GMs have their own cycles and methods.

As far as Des Moines and Chicago - I've said I'm departing at the end of the season and I continue to make trades. I'm trying to put whoever takes over from me in the best position I can before I depart. (But, this fact is also keeping me from making deals I might try and make otherwise.)

Sure. But some of it depends on why folks leave. When I moved away it wasn't for lack of interest or burnout or whatever, it was because I literally could not get my feet to the pedals to do things. So complain about someone in that situation if you want, but I don't have much support for ya.

It's valuable to be able to be cool with the fact that we don't all do this for a living or anything.

You are correct with Madison. Omaha is just not as engaged as in his previous go-round. Basically, if you are a trader, you generally know who the guys are that you can contact. There are a few guys that you can take a look at and wonder, "why arent they making a deal? They should be/need to be making a deal."

True and not, I guess. Everyone has their own thing and their own situation. High volume traders gonna trade. Other guys build different ways.

That said, that question (what does a team need to do to get better) is a little different than what I'm looking at here -- which is more "what's a healthy trade environment look like? When you've got 32 teams and 19 or 20 are active in the trade market at any one time, you've got a pretty healthy league.

Ultimately, I'd be willing to bet that our rate of player churn due to trades is considerably higher than the MLBs, mostly because some of us are traders for the pure dopamine hit of it.

[JimBob2232]

Also - i feel like the trade market has been rough for a while. Might just be my perception - but i think people over-value their players (or maybe its just me!). The above average prospects around the league by-and-large dont excite me. Looking at a 50 rated prospect who is 7/7/6/6/6 just doesnt excite me. I'd often rather just keep my players and plug away trying to make the playoffs. I'm also not seeing a ton of development (talent ratings increases) so it feels like you get what you get. All that combined has me mostly making my moves in Free Agency, Rule 5, and playing the Waiver Wire. Just the way it is...and how i see it at the moment.

[RonCo]

That's probably true, too.

It's probably also true that some number of the trades that do get made probably should not be made. We can't be fired, so we do things and make trades that would get us let go in a real world job.

[RonCo]

I'm also not seeing a ton of development (talent ratings increases) so it feels like you get what you get.

I do wonder about that. I know the game is trying to keep things in a lane, so when we have a lot of talent around it's logical that we wouldn't see talent changing as often. It would also mean that as talent is flagging, you'd see more development. I can say that anecdotally I was seeing some movement the past season or three. So that actually makes me worry because we seem to be bumping draft classes again...which would (theoretically) blunt the development wave that might have been growing.

I dunno.

I've tried testing these things, and I can get so far. But it needs huge amounts of data, and that's hard to gather. That's my gut feeling, though.

[CTBrewCrew]

Unless i think the that “guy” will win me it all, I typically not be active in the trade market. Plus i gotta actually get that far first

[GoldenOne]

Its important to note that both Jacksonville and New Orleans do not get on Discord very often/ever (and arent necessarily on the boards a ton either.) So, the quick posting on the Trade Block channel on Discord isnt getting to them. Mexico City is kind of the same way.

Established GMs have their own cycles and methods.

As far as Des Moines and Chicago - I've said I'm departing at the end of the season and I continue to make trades. I'm trying to put whoever takes over from me in the best position I can before I depart. (But, this fact is also keeping me from making deals I might try and make otherwise.)

Sure. But some of it depends on why folks leave. When I moved away it wasn't for lack of interest or burnout or whatever, it was because I literally could not get my feet to the pedals to do things. So complain about someone in that situation if you want, but I don't have much support for ya.

It's valuable to be able to be cool with the fact that we don't all do this for a living or anything.

You are correct with Madison. Omaha is just not as engaged as in his previous go-round. Basically, if you are a trader, you generally know who the guys are that you can contact. There are a few guys that you can take a look at and wonder, "why arent they making a deal? They should be/need to be making a deal."

True and not, I guess. Everyone has their own thing and their own situation. High volume traders gonna trade. Other guys build different ways.

That said, that question (what does a team need to do to get better) is a little different than what I'm looking at here -- which is more "what's a healthy trade environment look like? When you've got 32 teams and 19 or 20 are active in the trade market at any one time, you've got a pretty healthy league.

Ultimately, I'd be willing to bet that our rate of player churn due to trades is considerably higher than the MLBs, mostly because some of us are traders for the pure dopamine hit of it.

First off, I wasnt complaining about anything. Read it again - all I was saying is that just because someone is not planning on sticking around doesnt meant they are totally checked out. I made no comments about anyone's life situation, was just talking about me and my commitment and how I feel about it and am dealing with it. Second, trading isnt always about "building" a team. Sometimes its about pushing to the end - to make the playoffs, to go further in the playoffs, or, maybe, to just shed some money. Again, all I was saying is that I see a few teams that I think are in a good spot to be making some moves to get a little better and make a little run, but they dont seem to be. Third, I agree that this season seems to be a lot more active than in many years. There are a lot of factors, in my mind at least, that are causing this. Its not because Niles and Shoeless are back as they have been pretty quiet.

[BaseClogger]

I thought Brett’s original post was a fair read on things too. And I’m the first person to complain when it comes to Brett.

[DaveB]

I wasn’t active on the trade market this year. I’m pretty happy with my team currently. I’d have liked to have added a SS and kicked some tires, but remembered Allman was about to come off the IL. I was willing to move some pieces, but only had one GM message me and the negotiations went nowhere.

As a GM I’m not a fan of making trades at the deadline because I don’t like giving away assets for 1 month rentals so historically I’ve tried to make my moves earlier in the season or wait for the offseason.

It did seem like there were a lot more sellers than buyers at the deadline this season.

[JimSlade]

I would have loved to have made deals this season. I regularly post a trade block and I scan the injury reports, hoping to find a team in need. I've got a couple of issues to manage, though, before I can get into the trade market to my satisfaction.

First, I think you are hip to the fact that the parts are not greater than the whole. There are reasons my team is clawing to stay out of the basement, as many as 23 reasons on my Rockville roster.

Second, I made the mistake of locking in too many veterans on multi-year deals. I only have 1 veteran on an expiring contract who I thought might have been able to help a contender. I get why there was no market for my veterans.

Finally, I'm not in rhythm with GMs here yet. I take some responsibility for that. I'm not big on building through free agency. I haven't managed my cap in a way that would allow me to go deep in free agency, even if I wanted to. With the cap in this league, I've been slow to accept the value of liquidity.

When I was trying to move Socrates with retention, it felt like there was an expectation that I should simply be thankful to get his salary off my books. I wanted top prospects. I was stubborn about that, and I will likely continue being more stubborn than I should this offseason. You want a very good shortstop to compete in the here and now? I can retain salary, but I want a prospect or two to give me hope in 5 seasons. I don't need 28-year-old guys who push me one step closer to mediocrity. I appreciated the offers and the dialog, but as a representative of my fanbase, I like watching Socrates play too much to dump him in hopes of freeing up space for a free agent who may not want to join a bottom feeder. I was hoping to get a couple of your best kids, bound and sent to my system against their will, as it should be.

[Dington]

I would have loved to have made deals this season. I regularly post a trade block and I scan the injury reports, hoping to find a team in need. I've got a couple of issues to manage, though, before I can get into the trade market to my satisfaction.

First, I think you are hip to the fact that the parts are not greater than the whole. There are reasons my team is clawing to stay out of the basement, as many as 23 reasons on my Rockville roster.

Second, I made the mistake of locking in too many veterans on multi-year deals. I only have 1 veteran on an expiring contract who I thought might have been able to help a contender. I get why there was no market for my veterans.

Finally, I'm not in rhythm with GMs here yet. I take some responsibility for that. I'm not big on building through free agency. I haven't managed my cap in a way that would allow me to go deep in free agency, even if I wanted to. With the cap in this league, I've been slow to accept the value of liquidity.

When I was trying to move Socrates with retention, it felt like there was an expectation that I should simply be thankful to get his salary off my books. I wanted top prospects. I was stubborn about that, and I will likely continue being more stubborn than I should this offseason. You want a very good shortstop to compete in the here and now? I can retain salary, but I want a prospect or two to give me hope in 5 seasons. I don't need 28-year-old guys who push me one step closer to mediocrity. I appreciated the offers and the dialog, but as a representative of my fanbase, I like watching Socrates play too much to dump him in hopes of freeing up space for a free agent who may not want to join a bottom feeder. I was hoping to get a couple of your best kids, bound and sent to my system against their will, as it should be.

That Socrates contract is definitely player/agent friendly. I wouldn't expect anything in return to get that contract off my books, personally.