This is the final edition of the series I’m doing on older players in the BBA, again, focusing on when they are dropping off rather than what will happen to those they leave behind as they go. To recap, it seems that from 38 and up, players begin dropping almost like flies. We lose about half the population per season. Thirty-seven year olds look a bit more stout, and though it would probably be best for a third of them or so to retire, most can probably do something for teams that can squint hard at to ignore their deficiencies. 36-year-olds are more of the same, but better: I expect we’ll lose maybe 20% of them.
As you can expect, then, 35-year-olds are still pretty stout. This is, I think that “last class” of the big-name guys we’ve been talking about as the glut of older talent.
The top end of the list includes superstars like the Calgary clobberers, Larry Stinson and Carlomaria Donadoni. Montreal’s Duardo Gonzalez, Jacksonville’s Daniel Pepper, and Brooklyn’s Ernest McBride (all of who registered seasons of 6-8 WAR in 2056.
In total, there are 54 players who were 35 years old last season, essentially two pre team.
Here’s the list:
POS | Name | TM | Age | OVR | POT | CON | GAP | POW | EYE | K's | SPE | STE | PA | AVG | OPS+ | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1B | Larry Stinson | CLG | 35 | 80 | 80 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 717 | 0.314 | 171 | 7.9 |
3B | Carlomaria Donadoni | CLG | 35 | 80 | 80 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 713 | 0.316 | 188 | 7.8 |
3B | Eduardo González | MTL | 35 | 80 | 80 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 601 | 0.302 | 165 | 6.5 |
2B | Daniel Pepper | JAX | 35 | 80 | 80 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 691 | 0.296 | 130 | 6.4 |
1B | Ernest McBride | BRK | 35 | 80 | 80 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 665 | 0.328 | 164 | 6.2 |
SS | Robert Menzies | CHA | 35 | 80 | 80 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 595 | 0.326 | 129 | 5.9 |
RF | Donald Miller | JAX | 35 | 70 | 70 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 679 | 0.275 | 144 | 5.7 |
LF | Juan Donéstevez | NO | 35 | 75 | 75 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 687 | 0.292 | 129 | 5.2 |
C | Calvin Johnson | MTL | 35 | 75 | 75 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 444 | 0.271 | 116 | 4.4 |
CF | Manoell Whanon | JAX | 35 | 65 | 65 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 553 | 0.31 | 134 | 4.4 |
3B | Alfonso Trinidad | TWC | 35 | 75 | 75 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 636 | 0.304 | 145 | 4.1 |
2B | Tomás Borges | NO | 35 | 70 | 70 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 545 | 0.277 | 137 | 3.9 |
3B | Mal Fountain | LOU | 35 | 70 | 70 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 657 | 0.275 | 117 | 3.7 |
1B | Wilson Estrada | OMA | 35 | 70 | 70 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 539 | 0.313 | 134 | 3.5 |
2B | Tomás Durán | BOI | 35 | 60 | 60 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 549 | 0.293 | 119 | 3.1 |
RF | José Romero | DM | 35 | 75 | 75 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 387 | 0.277 | 142 | 3 |
1B | Ricardo Yánez | POR | 35 | 55 | 55 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 542 | 0.287 | 128 | 3 |
C | Ron Shiplack | YS9 | 35 | 80 | 80 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 430 | 0.292 | 109 | 2.8 |
2B | Scott Bell | EDM | 35 | 65 | 65 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 592 | 0.276 | 106 | 2.7 |
1B | Pancho Costa | VAN | 35 | 65 | 65 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 368 | 0.314 | 121 | 2.7 |
DH | Pedro Guzmán | MAD | 35 | 70 | 70 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 532 | 0.28 | 133 | 2.5 |
1B | Bastião Fardos | BOI | 35 | 60 | 60 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 456 | 0.295 | 131 | 2.5 |
CF | Arvin Duggan | YS9 | 35 | 70 | 70 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 589 | 0.238 | 99 | 2.3 |
1B | Manny Collazo | CCJ | 35 | 55 | 55 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 508 | 0.271 | 124 | 2.3 |
RF | Brad Parkinson | NO | 35 | 65 | 65 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 667 | 0.237 | 115 | 2 |
RF | Sebastian Fradesso | SA | 35 | 60 | 60 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 669 | 0.265 | 116 | 1.9 |
SS | Thomas Kramer | HAW | 35 | 70 | 70 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 602 | 0.261 | 84 | 1.7 |
1B | Andrew Gallagher | JAX | 35 | 70 | 70 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 333 | 0.283 | 127 | 1.4 |
2B | Ignacio Venegas | TWC | 35 | 60 | 60 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 217 | 0.262 | 80 | 1.4 |
2B | Bob Irwin | VAN | 35 | 55 | 55 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 531 | 0.298 | 108 | 1.4 |
3B | Jeremy Pickens | VAN | 35 | 60 | 60 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 269 | 0.262 | 109 | 1.3 |
SS | Asher Chuang | OMA | 35 | 50 | 50 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 442 | 0.196 | 51 | 1.3 |
CF | Bill Morley | MTL | 35 | 60 | 60 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 239 | 0.264 | 91 | 1.2 |
2B | Jorge Lugo | BRK | 35 | 55 | 55 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 554 | 0.284 | 91 | 1.2 |
C | Artie Billings | LOU | 35 | 50 | 50 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 122 | 0.322 | 145 | 1.2 |
3B | Brian Dixon | RCK | 35 | 50 | 50 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 518 | 0.269 | 100 | 1.1 |
RF | Jim Ashford | CLG | 35 | 50 | 50 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 612 | 0.268 | 90 | 1 |
C | Felipe Delgado | POR | 35 | 55 | 55 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 186 | 0.284 | 89 | 0.9 |
SS | Shawn O'Bagy | SA | 35 | 45 | 45 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 311 | 0.236 | 86 | 0.9 |
3B | Salvador Allende | MAD | 35 | 60 | 60 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 315 | 0.255 | 78 | 0.6 |
RF | Manobu Shimizu | MAD | 35 | 80 | 80 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 65 | 0.262 | 130 | 0.5 |
1B | Erik Wignes | JAX | 35 | 55 | 55 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 388 | 0.266 | 93 | 0.5 |
RF | José Hurtado | OMA | 35 | 55 | 55 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 284 | 0.244 | 103 | 0.4 |
1B | Kenan Reis | TWC | 35 | 55 | 55 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 92 | 0.241 | 91 | 0.1 |
C | Octávio Moreno | BRK | 35 | 45 | 45 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 161 | 0.303 | 105 | 0 |
CF | Arturo Ahumade | CAB | 35 | 40 | 40 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 0.333 | 83 | 0 |
C | Ichizo Sugiyama | PHX | 35 | 40 | 40 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 342 | 0.269 | 108 | 0 |
CF | Manny Peña | MAD | 35 | 50 | 50 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 315 | 0.237 | 55 | -0.3 |
C | Pepe Prieto | TWC | 35 | 55 | 55 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 271 | 0.174 | 46 | -0.4 |
CF | Chuck Dickens | CCJ | 35 | 50 | 50 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 139 | 0.241 | 50 | -0.6 |
CF | Chris Jenkins | LOU | 35 | 40 | 40 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 156 | 0.194 | 53 | -0.7 |
C | Joe Bradshaw | POR | 35 | 55 | 55 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 356 | 0.241 | 80 | -0.9 |
C | Rafael Mendoza | Retired | 35 | 40 | 40 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 132 | 0.183 | 35 | -1 |
1B | José Hernández | Retired | 35 | 45 | 45 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 364 | 0.202 | 42 | -2.2 |
The league lost only two of these players to retirement, both of whom had horrible years. Eight more had either zero or sub-zero WAR seasons, and look to be standing on some thin ice—though every one of them is either a catcher or a center fielder with some value left in the glove, wo will see what happens there.
That continues to be the major learning, I think.
My gut feel after digging through these lists is that a large part of the population of players hanging on are doing so more due to their acumen with the leather than anything else. As long as the bat almost plays, a veteran with defensive ratings has a reasonable shot at a job. Sure, there’s also probably a few too many established starts in these age ranges, but overall I don’t think that’s the bulk of the “issue” (not that this is really an issue so much as a behavior of the system as it stands right now). There’s also the issue of existing contracts being played out rather than axed. Just a random example here is Louisville’s Chris Jenkins, who dropped a 53 OPS+ year, and really can’t play CF much anymore, but his contract has a year left, so the team is likely to keep him as a defensive corner outfielder and hold-your-nose DEFCON RED option in center.
Or not.
We’ll see how long he lasts.
Cherry-picking examples at the bottom of the list brings me to San Antonio’s Shawn O’Baggy, who plays SS just well enough to not be terrible, but who probably has his job until that 9 Eye fades. A guy who can hold down the SS fort in the field, and do a .340 OBP is probably adding value someplace.
Of course, the marquee conversation happens in the upper half of the table, where (counting Sebastion Fradesso’s 1.9 WAR), we had 26 hitters registering 2 or more WAR across the league, with the lowest field-time indicator being YS9’s Ron Shiplack’s 430 PA. These guys made major impacts on the season at age 35, and it would be strange to think they won’t do it again in 2057—though probably a bit faded. The collective turned 106 WAR. Perhaps 2057 sees them as low as 80? I’d guess the over-under would be more like 85 or 90.
You can go through the list yourself, of course.
It’s an interesting exercise.
One interesting thing to note (in light of my viewpoint of defensive specialists skewing the numbers) is to see how few C/SS/CF are in the upper half of the table vs. how many are in the lower half. This makes some sense, of course. But the data seems pretty stark. By my count, 14 of the bottom 23 in the table are defensive-mined positions, whereas only 5 of the top 33 are comprised of C/SS/CF.
Interesting, eh?
Ultimately, I think this says that if the younger cohort couple play better defense, they would probably have booted out a good chunk of even the 35-year-olds.
We’ll see what the future brings, though.
Time always tells its tale.