In that light, it’s perhaps interesting to note that twenty-two players held options this year (actually, twenty-three, but Hector Amaral also had a vesting element that did not execute).
Thirty-one teams held such decisions, too. Today we’re talking about players, though, wo we’ll ignore those.
To get a feel for what’s happened, I grouped the players into four categories, each an element of whether the player should have left, and then whether they did or not. Consider it a 2x2 matrix like a heads and tails table with two tosses.
It looks like this:
Options | Opted Out | Opted In |
---|---|---|
Should Op Out | Feliciano Rafael | Joaquin Hebner |
Anastasio López | Jesús López | |
James Monger | Gipper Kengos | |
Kevin Morales | ||
Ángel Hernández | ||
--------------------- | --------------------- | --------------------- |
Should Opt In | Rashardo Menne III | Niccolo Machiavelli |
Millard Younger | Jaime Ramírez | |
Aki Kondo | Ken Bates | |
Yi-ke Hsiao | Juan Santana | |
Luis Maldonado | ||
Natanael Barral | ||
Justin Jackson | ||
Alvin Chartrand | ||
Júlio Alicea - R:100% | ||
Leonard Jones |
Of course, the primary axis (should a player opt out or not) is subjective. I’ll cover this as I go.
Let’s look at them box-by-box.
Off Topic
Should Opt-Out, Opted Out
There are five players in this camp, guys I felt would benefit from opting out, and eventually chose to. To see why I assessed then as such, let’s take a look at their contract status:
All five had only one season left on their deals. At thirty-two and thirty-three years of age, Rafael and Morales had to weigh the risks injury while playing out their last year’s deal, vs. the likelihood of hitting next year’s FA market in stronger demand. My guess is that Rafael, in particular, will not see $20M next season (though that’s possible), but may well sign a deal that will give him security for multiple seasons.
Lopez is also of interest in that light. At 28 he’s probably more valuable as a long-term piece, and opting to hit the Free Agent market this year rather than next is perhaps more likely to get a team to be willing to enter into a longer term deal. With several teams looking a little racy in the near future, it at least made sense to us that he would check the market.
It is of note that both Angel Hernandez and James Monger signed follow-on deals with their own clubs.
Monger agreed to a deal that will pay him $16M/$14M/13M with that last year being a mutual vesting and player option. This increased his earnings next year and guaranteed him one more high-salary payday. Hernandez got $4M/$4.25M/$5M, with the last being a mutual option. Both players also received reachable bonus incentives that could add $2M to each season’s earnings. Plus both stay with the club they know and love.
There are five players in this camp, guys I felt would benefit from opting out, and eventually chose to. To see why I assessed then as such, let’s take a look at their contract status:
Pos | Name | Team | Age | 2045 | 2046 | Bonuses |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP | Feliciano Rafael | CCJ | 32 | $20.0m | $20.0m(P) | 200 IP 550K, Neb 750K, AS 200K |
LF | Anastasio López | JAX | 28 | $16.0m | $16.0m(P) | 550K SS, 110 AS |
B | James Monger | OMA | 32 | $12.2m(O) | $12.2m | 500 PA 2M, 750K SS, 120K AS |
SP | Kevin Morales | TWC | 33 | $10.5m | $10.5m(P) | 330K Neb/68K AS |
RP | Ángel Hernández | YS9 | 26 | $2.1m(O) | $2.1m | $1M/50IP |
Lopez is also of interest in that light. At 28 he’s probably more valuable as a long-term piece, and opting to hit the Free Agent market this year rather than next is perhaps more likely to get a team to be willing to enter into a longer term deal. With several teams looking a little racy in the near future, it at least made sense to us that he would check the market.
It is of note that both Angel Hernandez and James Monger signed follow-on deals with their own clubs.
Monger agreed to a deal that will pay him $16M/$14M/13M with that last year being a mutual vesting and player option. This increased his earnings next year and guaranteed him one more high-salary payday. Hernandez got $4M/$4.25M/$5M, with the last being a mutual option. Both players also received reachable bonus incentives that could add $2M to each season’s earnings. Plus both stay with the club they know and love.
Off Topic
Should Opt-Out, Opted In
Here’s where we get a little dicey with the assumptions of what might be best for the players. Three BBAers opted to stay with their teams when I thought they’d be better off leaving. Let’s look at them:
I should admit that, while I think they were better off leaving, I don’t know that there were really bad decisions for any of them—meaning that none of the three are likely to get “break the bank” kind of deals. All three, however, would seem to be in line to add years to their deals that would be at reasonable rates. Kengos in particular seems eminently employable. Yes, he’s a corner outfielder, but he’s a pretty solid defender and he lives in a world where RHB who can actually hit are in short supply. And while Hebner doesn’t do the homer thing like you’d hope a first baseman might, he’s a Zimmer quality guy there and sports a .400 OBP. At 28, you’d think a team might be tempted to drop him a four season deal, give or take.
Nashville’s Jesus Lopez may be in a similar space. His ratings say someone would pay him, anyway, though to be fair is you’re his representative it might have been wise to keep him in a Bluebird uniform for one more year and see if that 6.44 ERA can come down a bit. Ratings are nice. Ratings on top of performance makes for rich representatives.
Anyway, now all these guys are going to hit the market one year later.
Here’s where we get a little dicey with the assumptions of what might be best for the players. Three BBAers opted to stay with their teams when I thought they’d be better off leaving. Let’s look at them:
Pos | Name | Team | Age | 2045 | 2046 | Bonuses |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1B | Joaquin Hebner | CHI | 28 | $3.5m(O) | $3.0m | 400 PA $500K, SS $500K, AS $500K |
RP | Jesús López | NSH | 32 | $4.0m | $4.0m(P) | None |
LF | Gipper Kengos | NSH | 29 | $3.9m | $3.9m(P) | 550 SS, 140 AS |
Nashville’s Jesus Lopez may be in a similar space. His ratings say someone would pay him, anyway, though to be fair is you’re his representative it might have been wise to keep him in a Bluebird uniform for one more year and see if that 6.44 ERA can come down a bit. Ratings are nice. Ratings on top of performance makes for rich representatives.
Anyway, now all these guys are going to hit the market one year later.
Off Topic
Should Opt-In, Opted Out
So, maybe those guys made mistakes and maybe they didn’t time will tell. Here however, is the category I worry about the most. This is a set of players who had a guaranteed paycheck coming to play professional baseball, and gave it up in hopes of a better deal. They are also guys I worry about actually getting those deals.
Those players are:
This is a pretty diverse set of situations, now, isn’t it. I think they should have all stuck with their situations, though a couple can be argues over.
Menne, in my opinion, is not one of those players. He was due $15M as a 29 year old. He was one of those guys who came into the league with a blast and a pedigree that had everyone yapping, and he got that big contract from Vancouver as a result. But the fact is that his defense is in the drink, and he’s only made about 2.5 WAR over his last four seasons combined. Since he can hit RHP pretty well, he’ll probably get a deal, but I don’t see $15M in his future next year, and I figure he’d be just as valuable next year. Or at least no worst. Of the guys on this list, Menne gets voted “most likely to be out of baseball soon” so I would have taken the cash and run.
In Charm City, Yi-Ke Hsiao was a more interesting situation. I think he should have stayed, but mostly to press GM Brandon Slouck’s hand. Hsaio faded last year, and even spent some time in the minors. Being owed $11M of next year’s cap suggests that the team might well have bought out the Team option part of the deal, which would then have left Hsiao $2M richer and in the same spot. TO be clear, I don’t figure he’ll make $11M either way—though I could be wrong.
He should still be able to play a little second base, anyway.
One can argue Younger could do better by leaving, too. He’s been a solid 3.5-4 WAR kind of guy, and at age 28 should be able to draw some big numbers. But the buzz on him is that he’s likely to struggle in center field going forward, which immediately drops his value, and he was already guaranteed $43M over the next four seasons. The odds of him beating that do exist, but are, IMHO, low. Seems like a lot to risk for little reward.
Of all these, though, the most intriguing is Aki Kondo, who left $63M over two seasons on the table. I say that because it’s obvious to everyone in existence that the $45 and $50 vesting options were never going to get executed. What this decision means in the meta-game is that it is pretty clear that the game engine does pretty much discount such shenanigans in its evaluations (as the development team has suggested). So, adding them probably hurts teams more than it advantages them. Still, at 31 years old and likely heading to free agency in 2048 (at 33), I’m thinking Kondo—while he will probably get both big money and more years—is probably not going to be better off with the deal he gets. Time will, of course, tell.
So, maybe those guys made mistakes and maybe they didn’t time will tell. Here however, is the category I worry about the most. This is a set of players who had a guaranteed paycheck coming to play professional baseball, and gave it up in hopes of a better deal. They are also guys I worry about actually getting those deals.
Those players are:
Pos | Name | Team | Age | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 | 2049 | Bonuses |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1B | Rashardo Menne III | CHA | 29 | $17.0m | $15.0m(P) | 935 SS, 250 AS | |||
RF | Millard Younger | LBC | 28 | $10.0m(O) | $10.5m | $11.0m | $11.0m | $11.0m(P) | 650K SS, AS 140K |
SP | Aki Kondo | PHX | 31 | $33.0m(O) | $33.0m | $30.0m | $45.0m(V) | $50.0m(P) | 800K Neb, 190K AS |
2B | Yi-ke Hsiao | CCJ | 29 | $11.0m(O) | $11.0m(T) | $11.0m(T) | 2M BO |
This is a pretty diverse set of situations, now, isn’t it. I think they should have all stuck with their situations, though a couple can be argues over.
Menne, in my opinion, is not one of those players. He was due $15M as a 29 year old. He was one of those guys who came into the league with a blast and a pedigree that had everyone yapping, and he got that big contract from Vancouver as a result. But the fact is that his defense is in the drink, and he’s only made about 2.5 WAR over his last four seasons combined. Since he can hit RHP pretty well, he’ll probably get a deal, but I don’t see $15M in his future next year, and I figure he’d be just as valuable next year. Or at least no worst. Of the guys on this list, Menne gets voted “most likely to be out of baseball soon” so I would have taken the cash and run.
In Charm City, Yi-Ke Hsiao was a more interesting situation. I think he should have stayed, but mostly to press GM Brandon Slouck’s hand. Hsaio faded last year, and even spent some time in the minors. Being owed $11M of next year’s cap suggests that the team might well have bought out the Team option part of the deal, which would then have left Hsiao $2M richer and in the same spot. TO be clear, I don’t figure he’ll make $11M either way—though I could be wrong.
He should still be able to play a little second base, anyway.
One can argue Younger could do better by leaving, too. He’s been a solid 3.5-4 WAR kind of guy, and at age 28 should be able to draw some big numbers. But the buzz on him is that he’s likely to struggle in center field going forward, which immediately drops his value, and he was already guaranteed $43M over the next four seasons. The odds of him beating that do exist, but are, IMHO, low. Seems like a lot to risk for little reward.
Of all these, though, the most intriguing is Aki Kondo, who left $63M over two seasons on the table. I say that because it’s obvious to everyone in existence that the $45 and $50 vesting options were never going to get executed. What this decision means in the meta-game is that it is pretty clear that the game engine does pretty much discount such shenanigans in its evaluations (as the development team has suggested). So, adding them probably hurts teams more than it advantages them. Still, at 31 years old and likely heading to free agency in 2048 (at 33), I’m thinking Kondo—while he will probably get both big money and more years—is probably not going to be better off with the deal he gets. Time will, of course, tell.
Off Topic
Should Opt-In, Opted In
This brings us to the last grouping, which are guys I think made good decisions to stay with their club. To put it bluntly, and sorry to say, but these are players that I’m guessing GMs would have been just as happy with if they’d left. So, bottom line, these are all probably pretty good decisions by the players in question.
Those players are:
The best of these decisions was that of Julio Alicea, who could have left but chose to stay in order to push GM Justin Niles to pay him to leave. Which Omaha did, writing Alicea a nice $3.95M check to go seek further employment elsewhere.
Other situations are equally joyous to their teams, but perhaps a bit different.
Ken Bates, for example, is injured and will be out all year. From his position the question was “do I want $5.8M, or do I not want $5.8M?” So Calgary will have to pay him to simply become a free agent, or, actually, for the first rights to extend him.
In Des Moines, Juan Santana will make $9M. He’s posted a grand total of .3 WAR over the past three seasons. Luis Maldonado will soak up that El Paso cash to the tune of $19M a year for the next two seasons, and past history says he’ll manage to return about a WAR—though to be fair, he should do better than that. He’ll be thirty-four by the time the team gets to their option, and one assumes that will be a good day in the Chili camp.
Neither Chicago’s Jaime Ramirez and Niccolo Machiavelli have provided positive value for over two seasons, yet both have decided to come back next season (for a combined $11.5M and a never ending stream of fruit baskets. Madison's Natanael Barral hasn't had a positive WAR since 2042, but will get his $6M next year, regardless.
The one player who their team might be happy with here is Nashville’s 31 year old Alvin Chartrand, who comes back at a reasonable salary and has been a steady-Eddy starter who can sit at the back of a rotation, win a few games, and eat a fair number of innings.
At $4M for one more season, Montreal is probably in a null-zone over Justin Jackson’s decision to return. They could probably do something else with the cash, but Jackson has at least not been terribly detrimental, and … who knows … maybe he’ll go off again. Other teams have tried that, anyway.
Leonard Jones is also returning to San Antonio, and at $1.8M his glove makes a not-bad little second baseman, though an upgrade is probably desired.
This brings us to the last grouping, which are guys I think made good decisions to stay with their club. To put it bluntly, and sorry to say, but these are players that I’m guessing GMs would have been just as happy with if they’d left. So, bottom line, these are all probably pretty good decisions by the players in question.
Those players are:
Pos | Name | Team | Age | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 | Bonuses |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CF | Niccolo Machiavelli | CHI | 30 | $6.5m | $6.5m(P) | 66K AS | ||
SS | Jaime Ramírez | CHI | 34 | $4.8m(O) | $4.5m(P) | None | ||
RP | Ken Bates | CLG | 33 | $5.8m(O) | $5.8m | $500K 150 IP, 64K AS | ||
LF | Juan Santana | DM | 30 | $9.0m | $9.0m(P) | SS-$600K, AS $120K | ||
RF | Luis Maldonado | ELP | 32 | $17.0m(O) | $19.0m | $19.0m | $19.0m(T) | SS &770K, $110K AS |
1B | Natanael Barral | MAD | 29 | $6.0m | $6.0m(P) | 250 AS | ||
LF | Justin Jackson | MNT | 31 | $4.0m(O) | $4.0m | $4.0m | 520 PA 1M, SS $1M, AS $1M | |
SP | Alvin Chartrand | NSH | 31 | $6.5m(O) | $6.5m | $6.5m(P) | $6.5m(T) | 650 NEB, 68 AS |
RP | Júlio Alicea - R:100% | OMA | 35 | $13.0m(O,R) | $16m(T) | $18M(P) | 100K - 150 IP, 1.75M Neb, 510K AS | |
2B | Leonard Jones | SA | 28 | $1.8m | $1.8m(P) | None |
Other situations are equally joyous to their teams, but perhaps a bit different.
Ken Bates, for example, is injured and will be out all year. From his position the question was “do I want $5.8M, or do I not want $5.8M?” So Calgary will have to pay him to simply become a free agent, or, actually, for the first rights to extend him.
In Des Moines, Juan Santana will make $9M. He’s posted a grand total of .3 WAR over the past three seasons. Luis Maldonado will soak up that El Paso cash to the tune of $19M a year for the next two seasons, and past history says he’ll manage to return about a WAR—though to be fair, he should do better than that. He’ll be thirty-four by the time the team gets to their option, and one assumes that will be a good day in the Chili camp.
Neither Chicago’s Jaime Ramirez and Niccolo Machiavelli have provided positive value for over two seasons, yet both have decided to come back next season (for a combined $11.5M and a never ending stream of fruit baskets. Madison's Natanael Barral hasn't had a positive WAR since 2042, but will get his $6M next year, regardless.
The one player who their team might be happy with here is Nashville’s 31 year old Alvin Chartrand, who comes back at a reasonable salary and has been a steady-Eddy starter who can sit at the back of a rotation, win a few games, and eat a fair number of innings.
At $4M for one more season, Montreal is probably in a null-zone over Justin Jackson’s decision to return. They could probably do something else with the cash, but Jackson has at least not been terribly detrimental, and … who knows … maybe he’ll go off again. Other teams have tried that, anyway.
Leonard Jones is also returning to San Antonio, and at $1.8M his glove makes a not-bad little second baseman, though an upgrade is probably desired.
If I get a chance I’ll scan through the other side of this conversation—team options. But for now, that’s all I’ve got!