Fun with pitch type and BABIP

Beat articles, power rankings, statistical analysis, etc. goes here.
User avatar
RonCo
GB: JL Frontier Division Director
Posts: 19813
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 1982 times
Been thanked: 2901 times

Fun with pitch type and BABIP

Post by RonCo » Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:09 pm

Here's an interesting table.

Don't all of these start out that way?

I got into this by starting to help someone else answer a question about BABIP and pitch types. I'm not sure quite what to make of it. Part of the problem of course is that the signal to noise ratio in these things is massively large. Part of it is also my limited ability to cut in slice data. And part of it is also probably the fact that as a real statistician they make a good Monday morning quarterback.

Here's how I gathered this data. 1st, they went to the game and need a view that included all pitch ratings, batters faced, at bats, hits, home runs, in strikeouts created by each of our pictures. I also added stuff, movement, and control just for the heck of it. At that point, I calculated BABIP for all pictures of each stuff rating. Then follow that by cutting the information as to whether a pitcher had a particular pitch type or not, and then again mass calculated the respective BABIP by Each stuff rating. I should note they also limited this to only pitchers who have faced at least 200 betters.

I tabulated the data below, and did my best to include batters faced for each stuff level in by pitch type or no pitch type. I wanted to include better spaced buy stuff and pitches, but that made the table complex, in not sure it added any greater understanding.

Here is the table:

2045-BABIP-Pitches.PNG

The results of course are interesting, because all such results are by definition going to be “ interesting.”

Perhaps the first thing to note is that the knuckleball does appear to strongly influence BABIOp, but it's also important to realize that the sample size for knuckleballers is very low. We have only two pictures who have qualified for these tables and they have seen only 1061 betters. I would guess the influence is real, but not as strong as this table would suggest.

Next, I think it's interesting to look at the orange line which is BABIP of pitchers with and without a pitch in their repertoire. For example pitchers with fastballs registered a .302 BABIP where is those without registered a .297. Does this mean that fastball pitchers will have higher BABIP than those without, or does it mean other pitches have stronger influences on balls in play? I don't know. Again, the data is very , very noisy. That said looking only at the top level might suggest that the split finger fastball, cutter, circle change, and knuckle ball all have some ability to influence hits on balls in play. likewise , the fastball, sinker, screwball and knuckle curve would seem to make matters worse.

Note: objects in mirror may be closer than they appear.

Or, farther away. Beware all Ye who enter here.

Looking down the table across the fastball column let me ask a different question, that being does it appear that pitchers with better stuff influence BABIP more then pitchers with lesser stuff? As we might predict, the answer appears to be yes specifically looking down the fastball list would suggest that as stuff rises into the teens BABIP falls fairly dramatically. Again, however, look at the sample size is before we get going too far. Note also, that these tables say nothing about a pitcher's full repertoire--so there is no way to determine if a fast ball with five sidecar pitches is better than a fastball with two when it comes to balls in play. At least not in this table, in at least not without considerably more work.

In the light of this idea that performance on balls in play is better as stuff raises, I find myself asking lots of questions and scanning the tables by stuff ratings to get eat different cut. Again with the interesting, right? We always ask if having a pitch is better than not having a pitch, and as a rule I tend to follow in the camp of more is better. I still think that is true, but looking at this chart suggest that if you limit the idea of performance to balls in play only perhaps one pitch is better than another. Especially in the upper ranges.

For example, having a good forkball (stuff of 12 and 13suggests the football in question might be good), would appear to limit hits on balls in play. The sample size of something over 9000 total batters faced is not too shabby overall , though still small in the big picture. You can see similar kinds of pictures with other pitches.

I'll leave each one of these to you guys to decide yourself as to whether this information has any merit or not. And leave only the warning that I personally don't yet feel I've drawn anything firm from it.

Still , it was fun wasn't it?

Or at least, interesting.
GM: Bikini Krill
Nothing Matters But the Pacific Pennant
Roster

User avatar
Jwalk100
GB: FL Pacific Division Director
Posts: 3041
Joined: Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:42 pm
Has thanked: 1818 times
Been thanked: 771 times

Re: Fun with pitch type and BABIP

Post by Jwalk100 » Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:31 pm

This is really interesting.

Is there a way to break down pitch by velocity?
Image
ImageImageImageImageImage

User avatar
RonCo
GB: JL Frontier Division Director
Posts: 19813
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 1982 times
Been thanked: 2901 times

Re: Fun with pitch type and BABIP

Post by RonCo » Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:32 pm

It's doable with some more effort.
GM: Bikini Krill
Nothing Matters But the Pacific Pennant
Roster

User avatar
RonCo
GB: JL Frontier Division Director
Posts: 19813
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 1982 times
Been thanked: 2901 times

Re: Fun with pitch type and BABIP

Post by RonCo » Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:36 pm

Right now I'm enjoying going back and cleaning up errors made in the text ... I was trying a dictation thing, with some humorous result. :)
GM: Bikini Krill
Nothing Matters But the Pacific Pennant
Roster

User avatar
Jwalk100
GB: FL Pacific Division Director
Posts: 3041
Joined: Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:42 pm
Has thanked: 1818 times
Been thanked: 771 times

Re: Fun with pitch type and BABIP

Post by Jwalk100 » Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:38 pm

RonCo wrote:
Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:36 pm
Right now I'm enjoying going back and cleaning up errors made in the text ... I was trying a dictation thing, with some humorous result. :)
LOL, I guessed what you were saying.
Image
ImageImageImageImageImage

User avatar
CTBrewCrew
GB: FL Heartland Division Director
Posts: 5111
Joined: Wed Sep 04, 2019 11:20 am
Location: Milford, CT
Has thanked: 923 times
Been thanked: 1316 times

Re: Fun with pitch type and BABIP

Post by CTBrewCrew » Sat Jan 16, 2021 10:50 am

Image
Image

Post Reply Previous topicNext topic

Return to “League Features”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests