2045 Plays Above Average Defensive Performances

[RonCo]

It's that time of year again, so here we go.


BBA DEFENSE BY PLAYS MADE ABOVE AVERAGE: 5/3/2045

TEAM	GB	FB	LD(IF)	LD(OF)	TOTAL
Edmonton Jackrabbits	16.0	5.0	0.5	1.9	23.4
Sacramento Mad Popes	14.6	6.6	-0.5	2.0	22.6
Twin Cities River Monsters	19.3	-2.1	0.5	-0.8	16.9
Valencia Stars	9.8	4.5	0.1	1.1	15.5
Boise Spuds	4.1	8.0	-0.3	3.7	15.5
Madison Wolves	10.5	-2.0	0.3	6.6	15.4
Brooklyn Robins	-1.1	7.7	0.4	5.9	13.0
Nashville Bluebirds	7.8	3.1	0.1	0.4	11.3
Las Vegas Hustlers	15.4	-2.3	0.1	-3.3	10.0
Yellow Springs Nine	4.8	1.9	-0.9	-0.8	5.1
Omaha Cyclones	-2.8	5.6	-0.1	2.2	4.9
New Orleans Crawdads	-7.4	8.0	0.2	3.6	4.4
Chicago Black Sox	4.3	-1.5	-0.6	2.0	4.2
Phoenix Talons	5.1	-0.2	0.4	-1.5	3.8
San Fernando Bears	3.1	-1.5	-0.4	1.0	2.3
Charlotte Cougars	-2.6	1.4	0.2	1.7	0.7
San Antonio Outlaws	0.4	0.3	0.1	-2.1	-1.3
Louisville Sluggers	1.2	-0.9	0.3	-1.8	-1.3
Charm City Jimmies	-3.8	4.7	0.5	-3.2	-1.7
Altantic City Gamblers	1.4	-8.4	-0.8	2.7	-5.1
Portland Lumberjacks	-8.4	5.2	0.3	-3.6	-6.6
Seattle Storm	3.8	-7.9	0.4	-2.9	-6.6
El Paso Chilis	-8.0	0.1	1.4	-1.8	-8.2
Jacksonville Hurricanes	3.2	-10.8	0.4	-2.1	-9.3
Calgary Pioneers	-5.0	-2.8	-2.6	-1.8	-12.1
Vancouver Mounties	-17.1	5.6	-0.4	-0.8	-12.7
Des Moines Kernels	-2.1	-11.7	-0.8	-0.3	-14.8
Montreal Blazers	-3.5	-5.1	-0.8	-5.9	-15.3
Mexico City Aztecs	-19.7	0.3	0.6	2.6	-16.2
Long Beach Surfers	-20.0	3.4	1.1	-1.4	-16.9
Hawaii Tropics	-11.9	-4.1	0.1	-1.5	-17.4
Rockville Pikemen	-11.3	-10.2	0.2	-2.1	-23.4
League	0	0	0	0	0

[Ted]

Nice to see TWC performing as expected so far.

Also, I would be curious to know if the trend I see in the differences between IF and OF performances exist in previous samples. It seems like we have more teams getting more benefit from really good IF defense than OF defense. Is that a GM preference thing, or a player available thing, or a where balls are hit and what kind of advantage can be gained thing?

[GoldenOne]

I feel like its more of a I've got guys that can mash in the OF so I'll put up with their horrible defense kind of thing.

[Ted]

I feel like its more of a I've got guys that can mash in the OF so I'll put up with their horrible defense kind of thing.

Could just be GM preference, yeah. There have been a lot of great hitting corner OFs, and recently people have been using weaker defensive CFs with better bats.

[GoldenOne]

I feel like its more of a I've got guys that can mash in the OF so I'll put up with their horrible defense kind of thing.

Could just be GM preference, yeah. There have been a lot of great hitting corner OFs, and recently people have been using weaker defensive CFs with better bats.

I think that the field also plays a hand in this. Infields are hopefully the same dimensions across the board but outfields vary widely. Charlotte has what should be a very good defensive outfield, even with Pagan. But look at those OF numbers and you might think, Meh. However, Charlotte also has a pretty large OF to cover as opposed to some other parks.

[RonCo]

Pat of the value of defense is based on raw opportunity count (more balls get hit to SS than 2B, and more to 2B than 3B. Similarly, there are more GB than FB. (GB% = GB/(FB+LD+PU)). Beyond that, I think the skill difference in fielding FB is likely less than GB, so one would posit that FB PAA would naturally be smaller than GB PAA...but I admit that last is theory rather than truth.

Here's a quick scatter of the league as it stands after one month.

2045-PAA-GB-FB-scatter.PNG (12.16 KiB) Viewed 932 times

[Lane]

Whoa

[Lane]

I mean, I have like the same infield as last year. wtf

[GoldenOne]

Pat of the value of defense is based on raw opportunity count (more balls get hit to SS than 2B, and more to 2B than 3B. Similarly, there are more GB than FB. (GB% = GB/(FB+LD+PU)). Beyond that, I think the skill difference in fielding FB is likely less than GB, so one would posit that FB PAA would naturally be smaller than GB PAA...but I admit that last is theory rather than truth.

True, but Range also factors into being able to make a Play Above Average.

[RonCo]

Here's the same data for the full season of 2044 ...

2044-PAA-FB-GB-scatter-full-season.PNG (12.11 KiB) Viewed 929 times

[RonCo]

I mean, I have like the same infield as last year. wtf

Small sample size. probably.

[RonCo]

True, but Range also factors into being able to make a Play Above Average.

Yes. I'm sure that's true. I'd actually guess Range has more to play in line drive PAA than FB PAA, but I have no idea.

in my simplistic mind, I would expect OF with low range hand high error ratings to be pretty good on FB, but less good on LD. Similarly, high range, low error OF would be less good on FB, but probably (?) better on LD. Again ... I have no idea if that's really correct. And the point on park effects is interesting, too. I am not making any account for parks in this--it's purely based on how OOTP lists balls in zone.

I'm starting to make another layer of work on these scripts, though--hoping to be able to identify individual players soon. That would help understand this question better. Right now I can track fielders unless they get moved in changes that are effectively double switches. So I can get it kind of right, but not really right. For example, if Ron Ritchie replaces SS Luis Pena in the order, but he plays 2B, and Dong-po Thum moves to SS, my script will show DPT as playing both 2B and SS for those AB. This doesn't happen that often, but probably often enough given individual sample sizes that it would invalidate any real rating or ranking I'd do with it.

[RonCo]

I hadn't looked at it before that I remember, but here is 2044 data for FB and LD PAA--which I suppose makes some sense looks more correlated than FB/GB charts.

2044-PAA-FB-LD.PNG (13.33 KiB) Viewed 926 times

Note, like GB/FB, the play differential is smaller for LD than FB, too. I assume this is mostly due to the difference in the raw counts of LD and FB available.

[CTBrewCrew]

Nice - my numbers have improved drastically from last season

[CTBrewCrew]

Ill scrape this data and add to the PAAVG defense viz

[recte44]

Off Topic

Las Vegas Hustlers 15.4 -2.3 0.1 -3.3 10.0

What a difference a year (and one awesome shortstop) makes.

[RonCo]

BBA DEFENSE BY PLAYS MADE ABOVE AVERAGE: 5/31/2045

TEAM	GB	FB	LD(IF)	LD(OF)	TOTAL
Madison Wolves	27.8	6.4	1.0	8.4	43.6
Edmonton Jackrabbits	18.8	13.0	1.2	4.3	37.3
Sacramento Mad Popes	24.6	11.1	0.0	0.0	35.7
Brooklyn Robins	11.1	15.2	-0.2	9.5	35.6
Boise Spuds	5.2	14.9	2.0	12.0	34.1
Twin Cities River Monsters	14.1	4.0	0.5	-0.6	18.0
Valencia Stars	12.1	4.8	0.1	-0.4	16.7
Chicago Black Sox	8.4	3.2	0.5	4.5	16.6
Nashville Bluebirds	5.4	4.8	0.5	-0.6	10.2
Las Vegas Hustlers	10.0	3.6	-0.7	-3.0	10.0
Seattle Storm	11.1	-3.9	0.5	-1.6	6.1
Phoenix Talons	7.3	1.7	1.0	-4.5	5.5
New Orleans Crawdads	-9.7	11.2	-1.4	4.9	5.0
Yellow Springs Nine	15.0	-10.0	-2.4	-0.7	2.0
El Paso Chilis	-1.2	0.5	1.5	0.8	1.6
Charlotte Cougars	-1.7	-1.3	-0.7	4.4	0.6
Louisville Sluggers	2.4	-1.6	1.5	-2.2	0.1
San Fernando Bears	-2.1	-2.7	0.7	2.4	-1.7
Omaha Cyclones	-4.5	0.1	0.5	-1.0	-4.9
Portland Lumberjacks	-7.7	4.9	1.4	-3.7	-5.0
Jacksonville Hurricanes	13.6	-15.6	0.6	-6.8	-8.2
San Antonio Outlaws	-2.8	-1.5	0.2	-5.1	-9.2
Altantic City Gamblers	2.0	-11.7	-0.7	0.4	-9.9
Charm City Jimmies	-17.9	6.6	0.8	-2.5	-13.0
Mexico City Aztecs	-16.9	-0.2	-3.7	7.6	-13.2
Long Beach Surfers	-21.1	-0.6	1.5	-2.0	-22.2
Rockville Pikemen	-13.6	-7.7	-0.6	-2.7	-24.6
Des Moines Kernels	-8.5	-13.3	-0.7	-3.7	-26.2
Montreal Blazers	-12.9	-5.2	-0.1	-9.8	-28.1
Vancouver Mounties	-20.4	-11.4	-0.1	-3.3	-35.1
Calgary Pioneers	-21.9	-5.8	-4.2	-4.6	-36.5
Hawaii Tropics	-26.2	-13.7	-0.5	-0.3	-40.7

[CTBrewCrew]

GOSH DARN IT @RonCo - the one time Madison is on top you can't do a sort correctly - lol

Viz also updated with this data....

thanks for posting

Defensive Plays Above Average

[DugoutDesperado]

Jacksonville Hurricanes 13.6 -15.6 0.6 -6.8 -8.3

I assume I am reading this correctly ...

Infield is +14.2, outfield is - 22.4. And that is with Dijkstra at +3.1 in centerfield.

[RonCo]

GOSH DARN IT @RonCo - the one time Madison is on top you can't do a sort correctly - lol

Viz also updated with this data....

thanks for posting

Defensive Plays Above Average

Fixed....