Dugout Dirt 2044.45 - A Sim on the Brink

[DugoutDesperado]

The Dugout Dirt brought in guest writer, Juan Simstein, to write this assessment (no relation to John Feinstein from the 1986 book on the Hoosiers).

If there is one sim that is going to define the Canes’ chances at making a play-off run in 2044, this very well may be the sim that edges the Canes’ front office to make a move, ride out the season, or offer a few pieces of their own on the trade block.

The Canes are sitting at 56-56 with three more sims prior to trade deadline. The are two and a half games out of the final wild card slot with the Boise Spuds behind the Edmonton Jackrabbits. The Phoenix Talons are also in the hunt between the Jackrabbits and the Canes. The Mexico City Aztecs and Charm City Jimmies are still within shooting distance as well. All-in-all, there are 7 teams within 5 games of each other for the final two wild card slots in the Johnson.

Currently the Jackrabbits and Brooklyn Robins are underperforming the most if you look at the expected results to this point with Edmonton at -6 on the Pythag scale and the Robins at -2. On the other end of the spectrum, the Canes are overperforming at a +4 with the Talons and Spuds each at +2.

If one looks at run differential, again the Jackrabbits have the best at +80 and the Robins are at +47. The Canes rank the worst out of the seven teams in this category as well with a -40.

So one has to ask, “Is there any statistic where the Canes are the worst?”. If you look at one-run games, the Canes have faired the best at 22-12. Brooklyn and Edmonton are under .500 in this category with Boise and Phoenix being between .500 and the Canes one-run win percentage of .647. Does that mean that teams should not want to be in a tight game with the Canes or have the Canes just been lucky to this point? In extra inning games, Boise has a 5-9 record compared to the Robins having a 6-3 record while the other 6 teams are pretty much at .500.

When looking at the Simstein Gold Standard (head to head against Rockville who owns the best record in the JL), there are only two teams that do not have a sub .500 record against the Pikemen. Those teams would be the Canes (7-7 against Rockville) and Mexico City (1-1). Edmonton is close with a 2-3 record and the Talons are 1-2. Rounding out the head to head records are Charm City (3-7), Brooklyn (3-9) and Boise (0-3).

On the Simstein Silver Standard side (head to head against Calgary), Brooklyn (3-3) and Mexico City (5-5) are the only two with a .500 record. The Jackrabbits are next in line with a 6-7 record followed by Boise (4-6), Phoenix (3-8) and the Canes (1-4). Charm City has the worst record against the Pioneers going 0-3 so far this season.

With everything being said, the Canes have even odds with Phoenix, Boise, Charm City and Mexico City, but it may be a tall task to finish ahead of Brooklyn or Edmonton. Jacksonville hosts Calgary for one game before going on a 12 game road trip starting with Boise and three more on the road against Wichita. If the Canes do not finish above .500 the next two sims, look for the Canes front office to be firing up the trade block.