Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by usnspecialist » Sat Aug 17, 2019 1:27 pm

the tricky thing about comparing him to guys like oliver, buckner, grace and garvey is that Rhodes has a decent chance to end up with 3500+ hits and those guys are all between 2445 (Grace) and 2743 (Oliver). That is about 4-6 extra very productive years which makes a gigantic difference.
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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by RonCo » Sat Aug 17, 2019 1:44 pm

usnspecialist wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 1:27 pm
the tricky thing about comparing him to guys like oliver, buckner, grace and garvey is that Rhodes has a decent chance to end up with 3500+ hits and those guys are all between 2445 (Grace) and 2743 (Oliver). That is about 4-6 extra very productive years which makes a gigantic difference.
It's hard to compare a BBA and MLB player, anyway. So, really, a lot of that is just fun. At the end of the day, there is no real comparison to Rhodes--by that, I mean there is no MLB player who lived this long on not striking out and hitting a ton of singles. Grace and Oliver were line drive hitters who doubled a lot. Rhodes is not that.

But if you look at the kind of hitter Rhodes is, his WAR scatter, year over year, and career OPS+ numbers are in the right range--meaning he created value in the ranges of these guys (Grace and Oliver, in particular), even if the shifting of hit types leaned heavily toward singles rather than extra bases. So, I think it's a lot easier to see Rhodes as a Grace/Oliver guy ... and even a Bill Buckner guy (someone who did not K) ... than it is, for example, a Rod Carew.

I mean, despite being among the "most similar" to Rhodes by the James method, Carew is also not that similar. He had, for example eight seasons of over 5 WAR (four over 7 WAR) to Rhodes' zero. He also hit 445 doubles to Rhodes' 207. Rhodes has a hundred more HR, but Carew hit 112 triples to Rhodes's 21. Carew also stole 353 bases to Rhodes' 121. He walked 1,018 times to Rhodes' 670. So, really, they aren't that similar (score was 759 vs. others 771-816) only more similar than many others.

That similarity is mostly due to games, AB, and overall hits. But Carew scatters several more (about 220) of those hits into extra bases and walks a gazillion times more.

Regardless, it's kind of fun to think about these kinds of things.
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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by RonCo » Sat Aug 17, 2019 2:21 pm

Randy's note got me to thinking about BBA numbers ... so rather than compare Rhodes to MLB--which says essentially the same thing, here's an interesting BBA table. It's every guy in the BBA Hall of Fame with 3,000 hits and the percentage of those hits that were for extra bases.

Bottom line: Dusty Rhodes is a unicorn. Which is kind of cool. He'll end up being the litmus test for the question of "is 3,000 hits a guaranteed HoFer," because really, that's the card he's got to play.


% Hits for extra bases
NameHEXB/H
Dusty Rhodes3000+15.0%
Bopper Kengos390034.2%
Charles Puckett389734.6%
Frank Thomas III373234.2%
Steve Collins352928.7%
Rafael Rodriguez352032.9%
Rogelio Morales347636.2%
Juan Escobar341233.0%
Gary Barr334532.4%
Randy Spratt325932.6%
Brian Clough324624.6%
Paul Barfoot323535.5%
Duane Whitley321734.4%
Ted Sale317936.5%
Daniel Labrie313124.9%
Leon Sandcastle309933.7%
Morris Pennebaker300948.6%
Roman Empire300426.4%
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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by usnspecialist » Sat Aug 17, 2019 2:24 pm

EBH% may or may not be a category i created for my giant spreadsheet of offensive stats for every player that has had an AB in the history of the BBA.... It also contains maybe the most mind boggling offensive stat in the history of the BBA.
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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by bschr682 » Sat Aug 17, 2019 3:27 pm

nice hit piece.
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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by 7teen » Sat Aug 17, 2019 3:47 pm

Good lord on Morris Pennebaker’s percentage.
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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by recte44 » Sat Aug 17, 2019 8:25 pm

7teen wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 3:47 pm
Good lord on Morris Pennebaker’s percentage.
Probably the most “underrated” pinnacle player in our history.

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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by indiansfan » Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:03 pm

aaronweiner wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:16 pm
It's a Hall of Fame. Not a Hall of WAR.
:plus1:
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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by 7teen » Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:19 pm

recte44 wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 8:25 pm
7teen wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 3:47 pm
Good lord on Morris Pennebaker’s percentage.
Probably the most “underrated” pinnacle player in our history.
Perhaps not so much when I keep re-releasing my HoF levels for the Media Guide.

He was Pantheon before. He didn’t drop out.
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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by usnspecialist » Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:50 pm

7teen wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 3:47 pm
Good lord on Morris Pennebaker’s percentage.
There is a hall of famer sitting at 66%
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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by jleddy » Sat Aug 17, 2019 10:57 pm

usnspecialist wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:50 pm
7teen wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 3:47 pm
Good lord on Morris Pennebaker’s percentage.
There is a hall of famer sitting at 66%
Long Chamberlain?
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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by usnspecialist » Sun Aug 18, 2019 1:16 am

jleddy wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 10:57 pm
usnspecialist wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:50 pm
7teen wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 3:47 pm
Good lord on Morris Pennebaker’s percentage.
There is a hall of famer sitting at 66%
Long Chamberlain?
yep, didn't want to spoil the trivia question.
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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by Ted » Fri Aug 23, 2019 9:21 am

Sorry to resurrect this, but I'm just reading it now. Such a weird player. I was wondering if he's actually possible in real baseball. Like, could a player consistently hit for such a high average with such poor quality of contact and no speed? I think the answer is no. Aaron mentioned him first, but I think the first real life comp most of imagine is Tony Gwynn. The difference of course, is that Gwynn actually had more speed and more power than Rhodes. (Seriously. His iso power beats Rhodes, despite way fewer home runs). Plus Gwynn was an outfielder so as a "similar" bat he was more valuable relative to his peers.

But the fact that he has less overall power than Gwynn makes Rhodes more weird. How is a guy, who can't hit the ball square enough to get any extra base hits on balls in play, hitting 15-20 homers per year? Ron's table shows his percentage of extra base hits is less than half that of other players with 3000 hits. (Rhodes is round 15%, everyone else is around 30% or better)

So Rhodes has a swing that bloops and slaps singles all over the place, with a consistency that is practically impossible in real life, except that sometimes he just corks one for a homer, which frankly has to be a completely different approach that his singles machine. Also, while doing this, he never hits balls into the gap, or somehow he's so slow that anything that should be a double isn't. Which means he never beats out any near singles, which means he should have lower babips, but he doesn't. Because he has a ridiculous ability to make weak contact that gets over the infield over and over and over, which isn't a real thing, except that somehow hits 15-20 homers a year.

So yeah. Vote how every you want. Dusty Rhodes can't exist. You simply can't have a hit profile like his. Spraying hits all over the place might make you think of a guy like Ichiro, but Ichiro only worked because he was fast. When he got older and slower, you saw what happened. And Ichiro's ability to slap hit was about as good as it gets. Back to Gwynn. Gwynn scorched the ball. He just didn't elevate it. I bet you with a modern approach Gwynn could have hit 30-40 homers a year, and maybe sacrificed 20 or so points of average.

But Rhodes does neither of these things. He just bloops. And bloops, and bloops. Except when he hits homers.

I've GOT it! Dusty Rhodes can't run! He has one leg. Or one really short leg. Or something. He should be .450/.520/.700 with 100 doubles every year. He's the ultimate gap hitter, but he has to walk, or crawl, or hop to first base! That's why all the singles. (Just kidding though. Doubles are weird. They're actually less consistent than homers. There's really not such a thing as a player who is only gap power. Or only home run power. If you hit the ball hard enough for one, you do for the other as well, because it's more about launch angle than the amount of power you have).

So whatever. He's definitely a unicorn. And I do wonder if wOBA can evaluate player like him, who basically can't exist. Can linear weights account for a guy who so consistently does something that does not exist in real baseball?

Either way, vote for the HOF how you like. He definitely makes the hall of unique, which says something. Whatever that something is.
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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by RonCo » Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:29 am

Yes, that's exactly it. Rhodes is both an odd and unique player. By definition, he gets similarity scores, but the fact is that those most similar are just not very similar.
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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by crobillard » Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:20 am

He actually has no limbs which makes this even more improbable.

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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by udlb58 » Fri Aug 23, 2019 3:14 pm

The Hall of Unique. This needs to become a thing in the BBA.

Rhodes
Emile Santos (87 doubles in a season, 9 straight seasons over 50 doubles, nearly as many career 2B+3B as singles)
Luke Zalusky (1900 games played, never once hit more HR than 3B, 7 seasons over 20 3B)
Mons Raider (1000+ SB, <200 CS)
Mark Wareham (nearly as many BB as H)
Dominic Wyatt (2000+ K, 1046 H, still >100 OPS+)
Matthew Callahan (162 K, 1336 G, 3.2% K rate, just 5.6% BB rate)
Francisco Ruiz (4563 PA, just 46 BB for a 1% BB rate)
Long Chamberlain

Juan Jose Elizando (1277 K, 1107 BB)
Nelson Ramirez (2909 K, 281 BB)
Gil Daniels (once allowed 0 HRA in 32 starts, allowed just 44 career HRA in 1600 IP; also was the original Peter Grady with 156 innings in relief in 1987 and four straight seasons of 100+ games)
Mike Swanson (75% QS rate)
Christopher Stoller (151 CG, 27 more than the next player)
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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by aaronweiner » Fri Aug 23, 2019 4:13 pm

Dusty is basically a wind god I think. Most of the time his powers fail and the wind blows in, causing him to have to hit balls up the middle. Every so often his powers work and the wind blows out at 95 mph and he hits it out.

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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by Ted » Fri Aug 23, 2019 9:46 pm

udlb58 wrote:
Fri Aug 23, 2019 3:14 pm
The Hall of Unique. This needs to become a thing in the BBA.

Rhodes
Emile Santos (87 doubles in a season, 9 straight seasons over 50 doubles, nearly as many career 2B+3B as singles)
Luke Zalusky (1900 games played, never once hit more HR than 3B, 7 seasons over 20 3B)
Mons Raider (1000+ SB, <200 CS)
Mark Wareham (nearly as many BB as H)
Dominic Wyatt (2000+ K, 1046 H, still >100 OPS+)
Matthew Callahan (162 K, 1336 G, 3.2% K rate, just 5.6% BB rate)
Francisco Ruiz (4563 PA, just 46 BB for a 1% BB rate)
Long Chamberlain

Juan Jose Elizando (1277 K, 1107 BB)
Nelson Ramirez (2909 K, 281 BB)
Gil Daniels (once allowed 0 HRA in 32 starts, allowed just 44 career HRA in 1600 IP; also was the original Peter Grady with 156 innings in relief in 1987 and four straight seasons of 100+ games)
Mike Swanson (75% QS rate)
Christopher Stoller (151 CG, 27 more than the next player)
The Domenic Wyatt thing is easily missed and is absolutely nuts. He's like the Dave Kingman version of Dave Kingman.
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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by udlb58 » Sun Aug 25, 2019 11:52 am

Ted wrote:
Fri Aug 23, 2019 9:46 pm
udlb58 wrote:
Fri Aug 23, 2019 3:14 pm
The Hall of Unique. This needs to become a thing in the BBA.

Rhodes
Emile Santos (87 doubles in a season, 9 straight seasons over 50 doubles, nearly as many career 2B+3B as singles)
Luke Zalusky (1900 games played, never once hit more HR than 3B, 7 seasons over 20 3B)
Mons Raider (1000+ SB, <200 CS)
Mark Wareham (nearly as many BB as H)
Dominic Wyatt (2000+ K, 1046 H, still >100 OPS+)
Matthew Callahan (162 K, 1336 G, 3.2% K rate, just 5.6% BB rate)
Francisco Ruiz (4563 PA, just 46 BB for a 1% BB rate)
Long Chamberlain

Juan Jose Elizando (1277 K, 1107 BB)
Nelson Ramirez (2909 K, 281 BB)
Gil Daniels (once allowed 0 HRA in 32 starts, allowed just 44 career HRA in 1600 IP; also was the original Peter Grady with 156 innings in relief in 1987 and four straight seasons of 100+ games)
Mike Swanson (75% QS rate)
Christopher Stoller (151 CG, 27 more than the next player)
The Domenic Wyatt thing is easily missed and is absolutely nuts. He's like the Dave Kingman version of Dave Kingman.
He makes Bryan Vogel look like a high contact player.
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