2033.01 - State of the Jimmies

[bcslouck]

GM Brandon Slouck won't have time to lick the wounds of a Landis defeat has his attention has not turned to the most important offseason in the teams history. He must find a way to improve the team's weaknesses to keep them competitive and get back to the Landis.

"We've been given some credit for how quickly we've turned things around here being an expansion team, which is appreciated it," said Slouck. "But compliments, credit, whatever you call it don't win rings. We expect to compete every year. We drafted this team from the start to win fast and we accomplished about 75% of that goal. The plan comes to fruition once we hoist the Landis trophy."

Peppered with questions about the offseason, he simply raised his hand to quiet us down to as he went through the plans.

"Pitching. It's been the problem the whole time here. Can't fix it in house. If it isn't the rotation, it's the bullpen. The latter was the issue this year. But we can't get them on the same page for some reason. We have some tweaks offensively and on defense we'd like to make. But the pitching is what has to be fixed, especially with some of our "better arms" leaving.

It is true, the team is losing some of their top pitching talent. Jeff French is set to become a free agent this offseason. Bonaventure Habermas is another arm set to leave. He was better than his numbers indicate as he was one of the better bullpen arms and was even better when he had to move to the rotation after Yan Heijnen went down for the year. Speaking of arms leaving, he's another too. A bargain bin signing who seemed to of resurrected his career in Charm City only to be placed on the DL with serious shoulder inflammation that kept him out the rest of they year. Chester Kipling is also set to be a free agent after his best year as a Jimmie.

They do have options internally. Top prospect Norberto León appears to be ready to jump into the rotation. And Arturo Cruz has always been an intriguing arm who has shown flashes of being very good but is prone to home runs, especially in OLD BAY Park at Camden Yards. A couple more arms at AAA and AA may compete, but in reality, the team is going to have to look for at least 2 starters along with another couple bullpen arms. Some of the names above probably have a chance of returning. But the team has look at all options.

All of this will have to be done while keeping future commitments in mind. While the team has over $20M coming off the books (based on arbitration estimates), next years number will jump back up as players like Byron Hearle, Arturo Reyes, Maximo Quezada, and Aubrey Anderson hit arbitration for the first time.

The team is going to have to hit on their moves this offseason, which is not an easy task. Whoever they target will have to be 100% upgrades in their eyes to make that move. They cannot afford to make any bad moves financially or time wise. This is a crucial offseason. If the overall pitching isn't fixed, this passed season could be this group of players peak.

[udlb58]

Like real life, the only real way to get an elite pitching staff is to develop one; and like real life, it is very difficult to develop starting pitchers.

[RonCo]

León is probably going to be pretty good, but may need a year to settle.

[Ted]

I have this Ramos guy available. Just sayin'.

[bcslouck]

I have this Ramos guy available. Just sayin'.

Over 2 run difference in ERA for his home/road split, coming to a park that's hitter friendly in a division with hitter friendly parks as opposed to some of yours. Sounds like a recipe for disaster.

[Lane]

Not a good offseason to be in need of pitching unfortunately.

[Ted]

I have this Ramos guy available. Just sayin'.

Over 2 run difference in ERA for his home/road split, coming to a park that's hitter friendly in a division with hitter friendly parks as opposed to some of yours. Sounds like a recipe for disaster.

He just put up a bunch of sub 4 era years in seattle, which is a fairly heavily slanted towards hitting. The guy's a quality arm. He may not be an ace, but he's a good pitcher.

Also, this is why I hate having a pitcher's park. Everyone discounts the value of my pitchers, fine. But then someone should take a bit on one of the .750-.800 OPS bats I'm always trying to sell (which by the same logic are .850 to .900). But of course that doesn't happen.

[bcslouck]

He just put up a bunch of sub 4 era years in seattle, which is a fairly heavily slanted towards hitting. The guy's a quality arm. He may not be an ace, but he's a good pitcher.

Also, this is why I hate having a pitcher's park. Everyone discounts the value of my pitchers, fine. But then someone should take a bit on one of the .750-.800 OPS bats I'm always trying to sell (which by the same logic are .850 to .900). But of course that doesn't happen.

If his home/road split wasn't so drastic, I would not care. But considering I've taken chances already on pitchers who may not have the best peripherals or where in a pitcher's park and it's bitten me in the ass for the most part, I'm not going to trade for someone I feel falls in that category.

[bcslouck]

Wasn't part of your reasoning for not voting Behner #1 for the Nebraska because of the ballpark difference? I know part of it was defense. But pretty sure you took ballpark into account.

[Ted]

He just put up a bunch of sub 4 era years in seattle, which is a fairly heavily slanted towards hitting. The guy's a quality arm. He may not be an ace, but he's a good pitcher.

Also, this is why I hate having a pitcher's park. Everyone discounts the value of my pitchers, fine. But then someone should take a bit on one of the .750-.800 OPS bats I'm always trying to sell (which by the same logic are .850 to .900). But of course that doesn't happen.

If his home/road split wasn't so drastic, I would not care. But considering I've taken chances already on pitchers who may not have the best peripherals or where in a pitcher's park and it's bitten me in the ass for the most part, I'm not going to trade for someone I feel falls in that category.

I kind of get where you're coming from, but I don't see how a guy who has put up sub 4 era's for 4 different teams (his only bad stint was in Halifax, which is a big time hitters park AND a tire fire), been a 3 WAR or better pitcher 10 times, and had a HORRIBLE 3.77 road ERA last year is taking a chance. No one would describe Omaha, Louisville, or Seattle as pitchers parks. Anyway, I'm getting little to no interest, so I must be insane. I'm not even asking for much. All I want is a 2.5 to 3 WAR bat at SS, CF, or 3B or a similar prospect. anyway, not trying to argue with you. Just trying to drum up some interest.

This next part isn't directed at you man, but I'm just getting real tired of the trade environment in this league. When I ask teams if they'd be interested in trading their young .700 OPS CF or SS, they ask for BOTH of my five star pitching prospects (Ramos and Rosado) in return. When I try to sell a guy who has done nothing but provide quality, consistent innings for 10 years on a reasonable deal for two more seasons, I can't make a deal for a 2 fucking WAR position player. This shit is unreal.

[Ted]

Wasn't part of your reasoning for not voting Behner #1 for the Nebraska because of the ballpark difference? I know part of it was defense. But pretty sure you took ballpark into account.

It was defense mostly I think. I know Recte's park settings off the top of my head, but not yours. I may have not been fair in the park analysis part.

edit:

avg: CCJ 1.023 LV .984
2B: CCJ .992 LV 1.030
3B: CCJ .884 LV 1.070
HR: CCJ 1.089 LV 1.146

So yeah, I voted for Velasco because he had similar numbers in a harder park to pitch in with a crappier defense.

[bcslouck]

It's all good. I brought up his numbers, but I've been burnt by similar types of guys in my 4 years here. He may be a tad better than the guys I can name, but I'd rather try and gamble on guys like that on smaller deals in free agency than trade for him.

Now you're latter gripe, I get completely. I've had some talks where I could not believe what people were asking for. I still haven't really figured out this trade market which is why I make smaller moves via trade. Soto was probably my biggest trade. I can tell you someone asked for Aubrey Anderson after he won ROTY plus prospects for a 2 WAR overpaid player. That player wasn't even worth Anderson by himself.

[bcslouck]

It was defense mostly I think. I know Recte's park settings off the top of my head, but not yours. I may have not been fair in the park analysis part.

edit:

avg: CCJ 1.023 LV .984
2B: CCJ .992 LV 1.030
3B: CCJ .884 LV 1.070
HR: CCJ 1.089 LV 1.146

So yeah, I voted for Velasco because he had similar numbers in a harder park to pitch in with a crappier defense.

My thought on this was that we all evaluate talent fairly similar, maybe some more drastic than others.

Kind of weird that the average is below 1.000 but everything else is above.

Also looking at the 2 pitchers again. Behner was actually better at home which surprises me. I guess some of the other parks on our side are more hitter friendly. I knew we had some that were, but interesting that they may be that much worse.

[usnspecialist]

The trade environment portion of this thread prompted me to go back and look through my messages (since i havent hit the cap there yet i still have everything), and I have found that despite negotiating with a good chunk of the league at one point or another, most of the time if you go back and forth enough you get something close to reasonably fair for both sides. I can definitely see where this is a tough league to get deals done with some guys though.

[Ted]

The trade environment portion of this thread prompted me to go back and look through my messages (since i haven't hit the cap there yet i still have everything), and I have found that despite negotiating with a good chunk of the league at one point or another, most of the time if you go back and forth enough you get something close to reasonably fair for both sides. I can definitely see where this is a tough league to get deals done with some guys though.

I think some of the stagnation in the standings has made it tougher. Many teams are nearing the end of long rebuilds or on their way up, and have little reason to trade their prospects. About 10 teams have been at the top for 5-6 seasons, and that's left their cupboards a bit bare.

I'll admit I'm not much of a negotiator. I'll make an offer I think is fair or close to fair, or simply tell you I don't think it's fair but it's the best I can do. If you come at me asking for the moon, expecting to negotiate to a more reasonable deal from a lopsided one, it's not going to happen. If I feel the opening offer is a deliberate attempt to get more than a fair deal, I'm not going to talk to you. Sometimes these offers only appear lopsided to one side, and I get that we value players differently. That's fine. That's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about offers where people are trying to "see what they can get", expecting to be denied and \then to move to a middle ground, but hoping the other guys takes a sucker deal. I can't stand that. I think it shows a lack of respect for your prospective trading partner. It's bullshit. End of story.

[usnspecialist]

The trade environment portion of this thread prompted me to go back and look through my messages (since i haven't hit the cap there yet i still have everything), and I have found that despite negotiating with a good chunk of the league at one point or another, most of the time if you go back and forth enough you get something close to reasonably fair for both sides. I can definitely see where this is a tough league to get deals done with some guys though.

I think some of the stagnation in the standings has made it tougher. Many teams are nearing the end of long rebuilds or on their way up, and have little reason to trade their prospects. About 10 teams have been at the top for 5-6 seasons, and that's left their cupboards a bit bare.

I'll admit I'm not much of a negotiator. I'll make an offer I think is fair or close to fair, or simply tell you I don't think it's fair but it's the best I can do. If you come at me asking for the moon, expecting to negotiate to a more reasonable deal from a lopsided one, it's not going to happen. If I feel the opening offer is a deliberate attempt to get more than a fair deal, I'm not going to talk to you. Sometimes these offers only appear lopsided to one side, and I get that we value players differently. That's fine. That's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about offers where people are trying to "see what they can get", expecting to be denied and \then to move to a middle ground, but hoping the other guys takes a sucker deal. I can't stand that. I think it shows a lack of respect for your prospective trading partner. It's bullshit. End of story.

i think there is a time and place for each method you describe. If we are talking a minor trade for role players or solid but not spectacular names, then starting near the middle and nitpicking around a few names is reasonable (as you and I did when we made our deal). If you are working a deal for a high end prospect or a stud, i dont think it is unreasonable to start a bit further out and work it down.

[bcslouck]

I tend to agree with Ted on this one. If someone comes at me with an offer that I don't see as anywhere close, I don't really have interest in continuing conversation. I've probably been on the other side of that too, and if I'm told that is the case, I try to explain my side of it. Basically to see if they are willing to talk when they are understanding my thinking on things. I have no problem if someone doesn't though. Any offer I make, I feel is fair for one reason or another.