2013 Hall of Fame Ballot

[7teen]

All 3 are 1B

[Al-Hoot]

WAR is POS.

[Al-Hoot]

Kestle
1997: 13-8, 3.76, 1.27 Whip, 33 Gs, 196ip
1999: 11-13, 4.24, 1.39 Whip, 33 Gs, 193ip

1997 war: 3.6
1999 war: 4.5

Even Whip and the ERA are iffy stats. The truth is no stat can measure a player's actual worth to his team. But I don't think War goes anywhere near helping out.

[agrudez]

....

BABIP:
1997: .294
1999: .333

FIP:
1997: 4.14
1999: 3.73

[Al-Hoot]

....

BABIP:
1997: .294
1999: .333

FIP:
1997: 4.14
1999: 3.73

BFD. Baseball is a team sport.

[bschr682]

Defense is pretty much the only part of the game that is actually "team" oriented. Baseball is a collection of individual matchups that are condensed into an overall team game. In other words baseball is awesome.

[Al-Hoot]

Defense is pretty much the only part of the game that is actually "team" oriented. Baseball is a collection of individual matchups that are condensed into an overall team game. In other words baseball is awesome.

FIP is the worst stat ever invented. It totally measures whether defenders caught balls or not. It is absolutely NOT a measure of "fielding independent pitching."

Besides, someone can argue all day long about their pet stat. I don't have to agree.

[agrudez]

FIP is the worst stat ever invented. It totally measures whether defenders caught balls or not.

I'm waiting with bated breath for an explanation of that second sentence.

[agrudez]

BFD. Baseball is a team sport.

Yeah... that is partly the story that BABIP tells you. Whether or not the team behind him played well or not has nothing to do with his individual performance, though.

[agrudez]

Besides, someone can argue all day long about their pet stat. I don't have to agree.

The sky is green, damnit!

[Al-Hoot]

For a start, anyone can Google the following:

FIP criticism &
BABIP criticism

I've read and researched enough over 10+ years to conclude that these stats are not all they are cracked up to be. I can't reproduce years of studying this stuff as presentations on this forum. I will not get started on a debate or even a discussion of these stats, because it would be *endless.* Thus I present my summary: WAR is POS. And trying to defend WAR by BABIP and FIP does nothing for me. It just introduces two more stats containing a lot of holes. I almost find these topics about as productive to debate as religion and politics.

So you may not like my hit and gun approach regarding these stats, but that is my knee jerk reaction to them. If you want to enter into long debates about these stats, there are plenty of places you can...

[agrudez]

I know you don't want to enter into a long a debate after you already voluntarily entered it and all, but could you at least dust off your 10 years of notes to explain how FIP "totally measures whether defenders caught balls or not"? You've piqued my curiosity. Also, not to prod the bull or anything, but you're quick to point out these stats flaws (well, not actually 'point them out', of course... but you get my drift), yet you subscribe so heavily to one of the most universally recognize flawed stats in ERA (going so far as to, in another thread, argue that it can be used as a better predictive tool than FIP). Do you not see the irony in that?

[agrudez]

The truth is no stat can measure a player's actual worth to his team. But I don't think War goes anywhere near helping out.

I just caught this edit. No wonder you hate the stat... you're using it completely wrong as I mentioned in my 'pitfalls' post in response to BUF. You can't add up 20 WAR and expect 20 wins... thats absurd. What you CAN do; however, is look at a 3 WAR player vs. a 1.5 WAR player and know that the former will be more valuable in a vacuum in an average season than the latter. Since the metric takes into account all facets of the game it is invaluable as a quick one-stop shop "equalizer" in looking at and evaluating players against their peers. For instance, how do you compare a .32/.4/.5 1B with a 0 ZR vs. a .28/.35/.425 SS with a +10 ZR? They are both valuable commodities in their own right as different players - WAR attempts (and succeeds) to bridge the gap of those differences.

I think this is also why you hate FIP so much as you try to use it as a replacement for ERA when it really should be used as a predictive stat. If pitcher X has a 4 FIP, 4.5 ERA and .325 BABIP you can anticipate that his BABIP will balance out making his FIP and ERA more equitable as his sample size increases to appropriate levels (ie. the longer the sample size... a full season... 2 seasons... even more - the more equitable the should become). Just like with PYTH records... you can't say "Oh, I have a -5 PYTH, that means that I should expect to win 5 extra games by the end of the year to make up for it". You have to say, "Oh, I have a -5 PYTH, that means that for my remaining games I should expect to win at a pace equitable to my current PYTH record". So at the halfway mark, if a team is .500 with a -5 PYTH then they should expect to finish 2-3 games above .500 - even if it doesn't turn out that way, it was a sound mathematical assumption nonetheless. With FIP, that pitcher in the example shouldn't expect to have a 4 ERA by the end of the year, but rather he should expect to pitch on a 4 ERA pace in his remaining games. Now, often this isn't the case, but a sound probabilistic approach to evaluation shouldn't expect certainty to begin with... its all about increasing your confidence thresholds and seeing how things play out - knowing that if they don't work out this time then, by stochastic definition, they are more likely to in the next.

[cheekimonk]

There is no perfect stat for baseball, WAR included. Infact, no stat is overvalued in my opinion more than WAR. Not that others are not also overvalued, but the faith put into this one number by so many people is worse than saves or stolen bases or even ERA.

Gotta disagree with WAR being the most overvalued. Mathematically, I am convinced that it's another more widely present and cited statistic. I'm saving that argument for a League Feature but I will say it has been mentioned multiple times in this thread (and, as usual, is questioned by no one as to it being an überstat) and the problem is not really the stat itself as it is that it has been rendered obsolete by a similar but much (MUCH) more meaningful stat.

[cheekimonk]

I just caught this edit. No wonder you hate the stat... you're using it completely wrong as I mentioned in my 'pitfalls' post in response to BUF. You can't add up 20 WAR and expect 20 wins... thats absurd.

That's why I really, really hate the fact that Bill James chose "Wins" Above Replacement player. I get the need to make the final conversion from Runs Above Replacement player - which is what the formula produces before the final conversion at approx. 10 runs = 1 "Win" depending on the season - as Runs Scored/Prevented/Allowed would be even more troublesome to avoid being taken literally by your average fan. But it would be easier to explain WAR's usefulness as a relative comparison if it was, I don't know, "Ticks Above Replacement" or "Widgets" or "Foos."

[agrudez]

Gotta disagree with WAR being the most overvalued. Mathematically, I am convinced that it's another more widely present and cited statistic. I'm saving that argument for a League Feature but I will say it has been mentioned multiple times in this thread (and, as usual, is questioned by no one as to it being an überstat) and the problem is not really the stat itself as it is that it has been rendered obsolete by a similar but much (MUCH) more meaningful stat.

I hope its VORP... can it be VORP? Like a nipple on a breastplate that stat is.

[njherdfan]

Gotta disagree with WAR being the most overvalued. Mathematically, I am convinced that it's another more widely present and cited statistic. I'm saving that argument for a League Feature but I will say it has been mentioned multiple times in this thread (and, as usual, is questioned by no one as to it being an überstat) and the problem is not really the stat itself as it is that it has been rendered obsolete by a similar but much (MUCH) more meaningful stat.

I hope its VORP... can it be VORP? Like a nipple on a breastplate that stat is.

My money's on wOBA

[agrudez]

My money's on wOBA

Uhh... blaspheme much? Besides, I don't think its a popular enough stat to be labeled "over-rated"... at least on these boards, anyway.

[njherdfan]

My money's on wOBA

Uhh... blaspheme much? Besides, I don't think its a popular enough stat to be labeled "over-rated"... at least on these boards, anyway.

No, I meant the over-rated stat was OBP. The real meaningful stat is wOBA

[agrudez]

No, I meant the over-rated stat was OBP. The real meaningful stat is wOBA

Ah, gotcha now. Still, wOBA factors the components of SLG in as well, so it'd actually be OPS vs. wOBA in that case... which I'm pretty sure I remember Ben beating the drum about before, so you may actually be right.