2008 Hall of Fame Final Tally

[jcrmoon42]

Congratulations go to life long Surfers slugger and now coach, Ted Sale, for his election to the Hall of Fame. Eight of the fifteen players received first place votes, and nine received last place votes. Commish's favorite, Riley Hinson, received three first place votes, but five owners placed him in the bottom five. Rashardo Menne, Jr. received good support in his last ballot but falls short once again.

Thank you to all owners for voting!

Here is your final tally. 552 points required for election.

Ted Sale – (1)-14, (2)-4, (3)-3, (5)-1, (6)-1, (13)-1, Total - 827
Riley Hinson – (1)-3, (2)-3, (3)-4, (4)-3, (6)-4, (9)-2, (11)-1, (12)-2, (13)-1, (14)-1, Total - 475
Rashardo Menne, Jr. – (1)-2, (2)-5, (3)-3, (5)-1, (6)-2, (7)-3, (8)-1, (9)-1, (10)-1, (11)-1, (12)-1, (13)-1,(14)-2, Total - 456
Hank Daniels – (1)-1, (2)-3, (3)-3, (4)-3, (5)-1, (6)-1, (7)-2, (8)-3, (10)-2, (11)-2, (13)-1, (15)-2, Total - 396
Larry Lasalle – (1)-1, (3)-5, (4)-3, (5)-2, (6)-1, (7)-3, (8)-1, (9)-1, (12)-3, (13)-1, (14)-3, Total - 361
Hayden Finch – (1)-1, (2)-2, (4)-1, (5)-4, (6)-3, (7)-2, (8)-3, (9)-4, (10)-2, (14)-1, (15)-1, Total - 358
Flavio Luna – (2)-2, (4)-2, (5)-3, (6)-3, (7)-3, (8)-2, (9)-2, (10)-1, (11)-5, (12)-1, Total - 327
Dave Manzanillo – (1)-1, (2)-1, (4)-3, (5)-1, (6)-1, (8)-2, (9)-6, (10)-4, (12)-2, (13)-1, (14)-1, (15)-1, Total - 314
Eddie Harris – (2)-2, (5)-2, (6)-2, (7)-2, (8)-2, (10)-4, (11)-2, (12)-2, (13)-5, (15)-1, Total - 282
David Smurf – (2)-1, (3)-4, (5)-3, (9)-1, (11)-2, (12)-4, (13)-3, (14)-3, (15)-3, Total - 282
Rob Van Winkle – (4)-2, (5)-2, (6)-2, (7)-2, (8)-1, (9)-3, (10)-5, (11)-3, (12)-1, (13)-2, (15)-1, Total - 265
Medric Wood – (2)-1, (3)-1, (4)-3, (7)-3, (8)-4, (10)-1, (12)-2, (13)-1, (14)-3, (15)-5, Total - 264
Gabriel Steel – (4)-2, (5)-2, (6)-3, (7)-3, (8)-2, (9)-1, (11)-4, (12)-1, (13)-4, (14)-2, Total - 262
Zebediah Williams – (1)-1, (4)-2, (5)-1, (8)-1, (9)-1, (10)-2, (11)-2, (12)-2, (13)-1, (14)-3, (15)-8, Total - 232
Tim McGraw – (3)-1, (5)-1, (6)-1, (7)-1, (8)-2, (9)-2, (10)-2, (11)-2, (12)-3, (13)-2, (14)-5, (15)-2, Total - 227

[agrudez]

So that was Menne's last year on the ballot? You guys are all jerks!

It is pretty funy that he was placed at every single position on the ballot except 2 (4th and 15th). How can 10 voters think he is top 3 on the ballot and then 2 voters think he is 2nd to last, though? Insane.

[jcrmoon42]

Happens to lots of guys. If you look at pretty much every player, there are some who love and some who hate. As you would expect, I guess.

I've never understood why Menne didn't get more love. However, he has been on 10 ballots and never made his way to the top. So be it.

[jcrmoon42]

I just looked back through Menne's voting history. He has finished, in order:
8
5
7
7
9
13
7
7
8
3

The weirdness of getting up to 5th in his second year and dropping all the way to 13th in year six is hard to explain. However, it seems clear that rated against mostly the same players year after year, voters felt that Menne was a middle of the pack star. Nothing more.

[recte44]

Grumble.

[trmmilwwi]

Menne just happened to draw a lot of walk... he wasn't that great;)

[agrudez]

Menne just happened to draw a lot of walk... he wasn't that great;)

A walk is as good as a single. Have any high 'Eye' guys you want to trade me?

[jcrmoon42]

Menne just happened to draw a lot of walk... he wasn't that great;)

HAH! AND hit over 200 homers. AND hit .300 nearly every year in his prime. AND steal 579 bases. AND play shortstop!

What's so good about that!?

[wualumni]

I'd argue a single is better than a walk every time (although a walk is still good). Hard to knock in runs with a walk unless the bases are loaded and even then give me a single because most times it will mean two runs batted in.


Jason Martin
GM - California Crusaders

[agrudez]

I'd argue a single is better than a walk every time (although a walk is still good). Hard to knock in runs with a walk unless the bases are loaded and even then give me a single because most times it will mean two runs batted in.

Okay, well, if we're REALLY going to get into this...

a walk is vastly superior to a batted ball in play because it provides a 100% chance to result in a base hit while a batted ball in play generally only provides a 30% chance to result in a base hit. You also negate the chance for a double play or any number of baserunning errors by those already on the basepaths since it is a true 'free' play.

[felipe]

I dunno...when I played, the only kids that walked were the fat kids that were too scared to swing...

[wualumni]

LOL - batted ball is vastly different than a single.


Jason Martin
GM - California Crusaders

[7teen]

"Walks clog the bases."- Dusty Baker aka An Idiot

[agrudez]

LOL - batted ball is vastly different than a single.


Jason Martin
GM - California Crusaders

Right, but even the best hitters only have a 30% chance to convert a batted ball into a hit.

[mrbornac]

Hinson got 3 first place votes? Really? /boggle

[nerfHerder]

Hinson got 3 first place votes? Really? /boggle

Pretty ridiculous in my book. After Hinson, Sale, and Menne, nobody else was worthy.

[jcrmoon42]

So, a walk is better than a ball hit in play. A single is better than a walk. Makes sense to me.

[jcrmoon42]

Hinson got 3 first place votes? Really? /boggle

Not sure if you are boggled by how few or how many. Hard to win with a guy on the ballot with 500 homers and 3000 hits...unless that guy is Rafael Palmeiro.

[Fat Nige]

I hope you guys man up and get some love for Larry Lasalle next year

[agrudez]

So, a walk is better than a ball hit in play. A single is better than a walk. Makes sense to me.

I wasn't neccessarily talking about statistics, but rather in-game strategy in terms of probability.

If we assume that the average pitcher has a 50/50 chance of throwing a ball or a strike* in a given throw then at a 3-0 count there is a 88.9% chance the batter will eventually walk, compared to a 30% chance for a single on a batted ball in play. In a 3-1 count there is, likewise, a 75% chance the batter will eventually walk, again compared to a 30% chance for a batted ball in play to conver to a single. Even in a 3-2 count there is a still a 50% chance for a walk compared to a 30% chance for a base hit on a batted ball in play.

Now, of course there are many mitigating factors (the pitcher's K:BB rate, the confidence of the pitcher against the current batter [normally a factor of batter statistics and/or reputation], etc.), but even if we take the first factor and assume the pitcher has a very respectable 66% strike:ball ratio for his pitches* we still come up with probabilistic benefits to taking no matter what at 3 balls. At 3-0 there is a 66% chance for a walk, at 3-1 there is a 56% chance for a walk and at 3-2 there is a 37.5% chance for a walk - all, once again, compared to a 30% chance for a base hit on a batted ball in play.

*These may seem low, but remember that in-game analysis of strikes:balls includes swinging strikes as strikes regardless of actual placement. I am, instead, referring purely to the placement of the ball and consider these relatively accurate depictions for average pitchers vs. top notch pitchers.