The BBA Today #75 - If It's Drafty In Here, It's Because We've Added Another Blowhard

[RonCo]

Viramontas will be fine.

[HerbD]

We are not sure how we are doing it either...but we'll take the wins!

[usnspecialist]

You guys were talking (I think Ted, specifically) about Simpson being a complete hitter because of his Eye/AvK combination especially. Simpson has an 8/8 vs RHP and 5/7 vs LHP. Please explain to me why Roberto Viramontas (7/9 vs RHP and 8/9 vs LHP) is hitting as bad as he is? Yes, his contact is a little lower but dang.

I blame you, Ron!

because viramontas' version of gap power is a hard hit ground ball that scoots through the OF.

[aaronweiner]

His contact is two levels lower, he gets no benefit from uncatchable balls (HR), and he's a righty, but other than that I really get your question.

He's drawing lots of walks, though.

He's not really elite in contact or AVK, just pretty good, and he might be at his floor offensively too.

[Ted]

You guys were talking (I think Ted, specifically) about Simpson being a complete hitter because of his Eye/AvK combination especially. Simpson has an 8/8 vs RHP and 5/7 vs LHP. Please explain to me why Roberto Viramontas (7/9 vs RHP and 8/9 vs LHP) is hitting as bad as he is? Yes, his contact is a little lower but dang.

I blame you, Ron!

I agree with the sentiments that viramotas will be fine. However, the comparison to David Simpson sohws two entirely different players. Yes, their eye/avk stats are similar. But Simpson's 8/8 versus RHP (2/3rds or more of pitchers) is as a left handed batter with 11/10/11 con/gap/pow ratings against RHP.

Viramotas is 8/8/3/7/9 versus 2/3rds or more of pitchers as a right handed batter. It's not even close, even if you take out the power difference.

Let's take the names out of it.

Batter #1 is 8/8/8/8/8 versus RHP and left handed

Batter #2 is 8/8/8/8/8 versus RHP and right handed

Batter #1 will hit right handed pitching significantly better than batter #2. It won't be that close. If most LHBs didnt have poor splits against right handed pitching, we'd see a league where left handed bats were 2 to 3 times as expensive as right handed ones.

Back to Viramotas. https://statspl.us/brewster/reports/new ... 42108.html If you look at his games played, the totals look the same year over year. However, I can almost guarantee he faced wholly different sets of pitchers when he was with Yellow Springs. The 20-30 games he's missed in Charlotte each year appear to be related to injury. He didn't really miss time due to injury with YS. I'd bet a lot that those games he sat are Ron benching him against really though right handed pitchers. Viramotas will never hit really good right handed pitchers well. He'll be kind of alright, but not good, and likely not even above average. With the degree of ratings bloat the BBA has, 8/8/3/7/9 is not good enough to hit very good same side pitching.

[Ted]

The other part is that David Simpson's bad versus left ratings don't really matter as much if he's not allowed to face LHP very often, and Shoeless is doing that.

[aaronweiner]

Also, the other guy we brought up who's close (my guy, Zhao): his best year doesn't compare at all to Simpson's best years. He's a righty.

[Ted]

If we want to bring the discussion back to splits and overall/potential ratings, you have to remember that potential rating is weighted differently for versus right and left splits. Maybe 2/3rds of the potential is the versus RHP rating and 1/3rd the versus LHP rating. That means that 1/3rd of David Simpons 75 pot is something like 35 or 40, which is what I'd expect a 7/7/7/5/7 mediocre LF to be. That means his versus RHP pot is really like 90 or something crazy like that.

Back to Viramotas, his 60 overall/pot is 2/3rds his 8/8/3/7/9 versus RHP and 1/3rd his 8/8/3/8/9 versus LHP. Those are about the same, so he's probably equal for each side before the weighted add.

Each player is really 2 players. David Simpson is a 90 versus RHP and a 35 versus LHP. Viramotas is a 60 versus RHP and 60 versus LHP. This is the importance of platoons and the power you can get from them.

[usnspecialist]

The closest comparison I could find to Simpson is my guy Reggie Vargas (on phone so link is separate), who is also lefty and someone who shouldn't really be in the field. Eye is a tick down vs RHP, but other than that they are virtually identical.

Vargas vs RHP: 10/10/11/6/8
Simpson vs RHP: 11/10/11/8/8
Vargas vs LHP: 7/7/8/5/7
Simpson vs LHP: 7/7/7/5/7
Vargas overall: 9/9/10/6/8
Simpson overall: 10/9/10/8/8

[https://statspl.us/brewster/reports/ne ... 42579.html

[aaronweiner]

Julio Barajas is also very close.

[RonCo]

Shimizu and Rivera are hard to discount, but it's hard to find a guy with Simpson's eye.

[GoldenOne]

Eh. I agree with some of what you guys are saying but also the drop off from YS to Charlotte is pretty big. I'm going more with the difference in pitching between the Atlantic and the Heartland just as much as everything else. A 7/9 vs RHP is not that much difference from an 8/8. Yes, the contact makes a difference (and I am in no way saying Viramontas is elite or on the same level as Simpson, mainly comparing the eye/avk discussion in the podcast.)

For instance, Bob Irwin is a 3/10 vs RHP. Contact is only a 9, just a click above Viramontas. But look at the slash lines. Viramontas - .251/.344/.336 and Irwin - .351/.376/.464. No way the 9 contact for Irwin is worth that much more than Viramontas's 8.

Or how about Pagan's .281/.348/.478. Pagan's Con/Eye/AvK is 8/6/8 to Viramontas's 8/7/9.

You guys have been around long enough and know a little from the devs - is there any sort of random "Change of Scenery" influence built into the game? I mean, Charlotte is not a hitter's park, and can be somewhat comparable to Sacramento's park, yet look at the difference Pagan has from his time in Charlotte compared to Sacramento.

[Ted]

A 7/9 vs RHP is not that much difference from an 8/8.

I'm not trying to be a jerk. This is not correct. 7/9 RHB versus RHP and 8/8 LHB versus RHP are very different. Not night and day different, but not close to the same.

[aaronweiner]

For instance, Bob Irwin is a 3/10 vs RHP.

Or how about Pagan's .281/.348/.478. Pagan's Con/Eye/AvK is 8/6/8 to Viramontas's 8/7/9.

Irwin is having a fantastic season. He won't do this every year and I'd even say he's unlikely to do it for the REST of the year, though he's established a pretty high level of performance. But the sort of year he's having is within his grasp.

If you take away the nine homers that Pagan has (giving him Viramontas' 1), he's hitting .244 - with predictably, considerably worse walk numbers.

We haven't even gotten into high 8s and low 8s and high 7s and low 7s and all of that.

[GoldenOne]

A 7/9 vs RHP is not that much difference from an 8/8.

I'm not trying to be a jerk. This is not correct. 7/9 RHB versus RHP and 8/8 LHB versus RHB are very different. Not night and day different, but not close to the same.

I'm well past the point of ever worrying about if you're trying to be a jerk or not Ted.

Not night and day different - not that much difference. Seems like we're saying the same thing, almost. And I was comparing a 7/9 vs RHB and 8/8 vs RHB, not vs LHB.

No matter how you slice it, Viramontas is not hitting what he should be/what you (I guess, what I) am expecting him to hit, especially with better hitters around him. (And dont even get me started on Menzies.

[Ted]

A 7/9 vs RHP is not that much difference from an 8/8.

I'm not trying to be a jerk. This is not correct. 7/9 RHB versus RHP and 8/8 LHB versus RHB are very different. Not night and day different, but not close to the same.

I'm well past the point of ever worrying about if you're trying to be a jerk or not Ted.

Not night and day different - not that much difference. Seems like we're saying the same thing, almost. And I was comparing a 7/9 vs RHB and 8/8 vs RHB, not vs LHB.

No matter how you slice it, Viramontas is not hitting what he should be/what you (I guess, what I) am expecting him to hit, especially with better hitters around him. (And dont even get me started on Menzies.

I had a typo, and that doesn't help. I was comparing both versus RHP. Simpson being left handed and Viromontas being right handed matters. A ton. Both versus RHP. The same same pitcher is different against them. An 8/8 LHB matchups up against inferior ratings of the same RHP most of the time than a 7/9 RHB, because of the pitcher splits.

But agreed, Viromontas is underperforming. Strangely, he's lost 30 points of BABIP since going to Charlotte from YS. Not sure why. His CON hasn't dropped, and BABIP *should* stay stable throughout a career. Ron sitting him against tough righties will make an impact on his BABIP, but not 30 points. It is odd.

[GoldenOne]

For instance, Bob Irwin is a 3/10 vs RHP.

Or how about Pagan's .281/.348/.478. Pagan's Con/Eye/AvK is 8/6/8 to Viramontas's 8/7/9.

Irwin is having a fantastic season. He won't do this every year and I'd even say he's unlikely to do it for the REST of the year, though he's established a pretty high level of performance. But the sort of year he's having is within his grasp.

If you take away the nine homers that Pagan has (giving him Viramontas' 1), he's hitting .244 - with predictably, considerably worse walk numbers.

We haven't even gotten into high 8s and low 8s and high 7s and low 7s and all of that.

Irwin went .335/.362/.464 last season, in 468 ABs. Compared to .351/.376/.464 this season, in 194 ABs. I'm thinking he's setting a trend.

And yes, I get the highs and lows of each number. Just saying, there is something about Viramontas that he doesnt seem to like Charlotte (yet Pagan does for the most part.) Look at what he did in YS compared to Charlotte.

[GoldenOne]

But agreed, Viromontas is underperforming. Strangely, he's lost 30 points of BABIP since going to Charlotte from YS. Not sure why. His CON hasn't dropped, and BABIP *should* stay stable throughout a career. Ron sitting him against tough righties will make an impact on his BABIP, but not 30 points. It is odd.

That's all I'm saying.

[aaronweiner]

Or, it's possible you're comparing a lot of players who are not really all that alike and might be even less alike than you think, because it helps to ease your mind that certain things should happen and create blame when they don't. It's a common trap; there's even a name for it I don't remember.

[RonCo]

It may be important to remember that league BABIP took a large dip for two seasons. Relative to the league, Viramontas' BABIP has had only one season where he was not substantially better than league average...and then he was just "average." Note that he was injured coming out of Spring Training, too.

Roberto Viramontas	Age	BABIP	League
2041 Yellow Springs - BBA	21	.337	.309
2042 Yellow Springs - BBA	22	.325	.301
2043 Charlotte - BBA	23	.283	.281
2044 Charlotte - BBA	24	.307	.284
2045 Charlotte - BBA	25	.308	.295