The BBA Today #38 - UMEBA FA Insurgency!

[RonCo]

It's mid-December in the BBA Hot Stove League, and things are cooking. Join me and Boise GM Joe Lederer as we have a good time talking about the biggest signings of the off-season so far, some doings in Sacramento, and--of course--whatever the heck it is that's got all our players going to the UMEBA!

GET IT HERE!!!

[jleddy]

I think we brought up at least 50% of the BBA and 66% of the UMEBA...lots to cover!

[RonCo]

And we didn't even talk about Rule 5! You heard there was going to be a Rule 5, right? [wink]

[HoosierVic]

Rule 5? When is that again? I was looking for a 6th announcement and couldn’t find it ...

Nice podcast gentlemen. I agree that the most interesting development of the offseason is the emergence of the UMEBA as a dangerous player in free agency. Wish I’d had a shot at a couple of these guys when I was at Mumbai!

[Dington]

It will be interesting to see how the big signings play out. They better have 6 WAR seasons

[Fat Nige]

I don’t know where people get the idea from that Wichita is awash with money? Sure our payroll is in the 60’s millions but we have no cash reserves and little revenue. Last season, once we finished everything up, it was a loss of around 2 million, bringing the losses to around 50 million in four years. I’m trying to edge revenue up, but with a little league pitching staff it’s hard to win enough to do that. We were close to doubling the attendance last year thanks to ticket cuts, now we’ll see if we can keep the fans and claw a dollar back of that price

[RonCo]

If I left the opinion that Wichita is laden with money, I didn't speak well. You're dealing with a financial crisis left when Stu went for a winning season and got derailed.

[Fat Nige]

It just seemed that it finished with the thought that these (inc Wichita) left have low payrolls and could well splash out in FA. I'd love too and indeed had made some big offers (by Wichita standards) but they just weren't good enough. Bigger teams are looking in the $15-20 million bracket, we're more in the $10-15 million bracket

But I accept that you were misquoted by my Front Office lol

[HerbD]

We made the BBA Today

[shoeless.db]

Finally got around to listening. Great stuff, you two. I think, as a tandem, you need to do a weekly pod as the chemistry is good. Although, I suppose, the chemistry should be good since it's just Ron talking to his alter ego, Joe.

[bschr682]

Disagree on Legrande. A fragile guy going a few years without an injury is not a sign that he’s suddenly not fragile. He got lucky and he is most likely due for said injury. Knud Zeitler exhibit A...

That aside he was gonna get paid like that regardless.

[Lane]

If he's treated like he was treated in Long Beach he might stay healthy. But yeah, if the restrictions are lifted it could get ugly quick.

[RonCo]

I don't think it means he's not fragile. But the base PAP concept does suggest that getting guys pitches without injury will reduce the stress-factor that goes into whatever calculation goes on. So, I suppose it depends on the code. I'd purely guess that likelihood of injury is a function of (Injury proneness, PAP).

[jleddy]

People hear what they want to hear.

[RonCo]

[RonCo]

On the other hand, part of the fun is seeing how wrong I can be.

[bschr682]

People hear what they want to hear.

Instead of being a smart ass, maybe point out what you disagree with? You guys clearly said you don’t think Legrands fragile rating is a problem. I disagree. Is there something wrong with that?

[jleddy]

No one said “he’s suddenly not fragile”.

I pointed out several of the top arms were labeled fragile but based on his Legrand’s track record for the last ten seasons, I said there shouldn’t be “too much of a worry” and then agreed with Ron that there was still risk.

Is Legrand more likely to get hurt than Pitcher X with a normal rating? Yes.
Would it shock me if Legrand has an injury or two beyond day-to-day during his new contract? No.

All I was saying was that Ben should be happy with the signing despite the “fragile” label on Legrand and worth the roll of the dice.

[bschr682]

Ok so back to square one. I simply disagree with that sentiment. That’s too much cap space for a guy who will get hurt. So then why the callous dismissal up above?

[RonCo]

Geez all around ... if I left the impression that a 30 year old with a Fragile rating was zero risk, I apologize. I view every pitcher past 30 as a potential loss, and Brett is right that those with a Fragile rating are more concerning.

Disagreement is fine.

On the other hand, Legrand has been throwing essentially 180-200 innings every year of his career--with ERA+ numbers often in the 140s--and has encountered exactly zero major injuries. So, shrug. Is he "going" to get hurt? Well, maybe. But in this case, past history says Legrand has a not zero chance at serving out that entire contract without more than a few dings and bumps here and there. Is that risk worth it? Well, I guess we'll see.

I mean, there's also a not zero chance Legrand will throw down two more 4WARish years and execute that opt out, getting Brooklyn a comp pick.

Zeitler's case is fine to look at, but is 100% different than Legrand because Zeitler has three MAJOR injuries in his history whereas Legrand has one 8 week problem over a decade ago.