What's Brewing In The Brewster. Season 2, Episode 4

[niles08]

Another Wednesday, another episode!

This week we cover:

1). The Big Story---The Draft Class

2.) Emilio Morales---How does he get some love?

3.) Was the Thealer or Rios deal better?

4.) "Stat(r) of the week"

5.) LPT!

https://anchor.fm/bba/episodes/Episode-4-brewing-e5p480

[RonCo]

When I get a chance, I'll be doing some spread sheeting and whatnot, but I think this was about as expected. When we had the glut, the work we did to review it spoke of the issues that created that glut.

I note here that, given we're a feeder team league, we can all go to the high school and college leagues and project the draft classes for 2-4 seasons out.

[crobillard]

I get so excited when I see this post. Can't get enough BBA.

I'm okay with this draft class. I'd prefer the top 3-5 picks to be able to get a slightly better player than what's available this year.

I love Morales. You wont catch me voting against him.

I'm BIG on my Thealer deal. He provides me with some really interesting flexibility against opponents. Over the offseason he was asking for some ridiculous price, but dropped down to around 6 years/$36 mil last sim. I hopped right on that. That deal also (and of course I'm thinking this way) makes him valuable in trades. 10+ mil/year is always hard to swallow for any team. With all of this said, there's no doubt that Rios is the better hitter and if I could add 4 million more to each year to Thealer's deal and get Rios, I would probably take him instead.

I can't stand flies.

[handaspencer]

When I get a chance, I'll be doing some spread sheeting and whatnot, but I think this was about as expected. When we had the glut, the work we did to review it spoke of the issues that created that glut.

I note here that, given we're a feeder team league, we can all go to the high school and college leagues and project the draft classes for 2-4 seasons out.

What exactly is the eligibility for College guys before they can enter the pool?

[jleddy]

Great take on the draft class, @niles08! I liked the comparing to scout ratings of the Top 100 MLB Prospects...gave a nice perspective.

That said, I don't want to see a dozen 80s like I heard it was two or so years ago, but I'm with Chris, in that "I'd prefer the top 3-5 picks to be able to get a slightly better player". My preferred draft class, with variances year to year, would be something like:

70-80 POT - 2-3 per class
60/65 POT - 10-12 per class
50/55 POT - 25-30 per class

So basically through the first round and a half (or first round plus supplemental picks), you are drafting guys with potential, at a minimum, to be MLB regulars. I don't think that's too far off from what players are graded going into the draft. And I'm all for the chaos of development...seeing a #1 overall pick flame out into a 50 rating or a third rounder at 50 blossoming into a 70.

From there, it would be a ton of 40-45 POT guys and the last couple of rounds would be taking fliers on 35 POT-type guys.

And of course I'm not blaming OOTP, and definitely not blaming Recte. There's a lot of moving parts that goes into the draft classes: development from the time they are created by the game/Recte, relative ratings, aging curves, a unique feeder league (only 36 colleges and 96 high schools), etc.

Anyways, great episode, as always!

[jleddy]

When I get a chance, I'll be doing some spread sheeting and whatnot, but I think this was about as expected. When we had the glut, the work we did to review it spoke of the issues that created that glut.

I note here that, given we're a feeder team league, we can all go to the high school and college leagues and project the draft classes for 2-4 seasons out.

What exactly is the eligibility for College guys before they can enter the pool?

In MLB, it's anyone 21 or older or completed at least junior year of college or a JUCO player. I think OOTP uses the same logic without being able to change it, so BBA would have the same rules. Here are the only settings I believe OOTP allows for adjustment when it comes to the draft pool (and the current BBA settings):

[handaspencer]

When I get a chance, I'll be doing some spread sheeting and whatnot, but I think this was about as expected. When we had the glut, the work we did to review it spoke of the issues that created that glut.

I note here that, given we're a feeder team league, we can all go to the high school and college leagues and project the draft classes for 2-4 seasons out.

What exactly is the eligibility for College guys before they can enter the pool?

In MLB, it's anyone 21 or older or completed at least junior year of college or a JUCO player. I think OOTP uses the same logic without being able to change it, so BBA would have the same rules. Here are the only settings I believe OOTP allows for adjustment when it comes to the draft pool (and the current BBA settings):

That’s what I was thinking. So let’s look at this scenario. Yun Zhang will be 21 in 65 days and will complete his Junior year end of May. The draft in game will be June 8th. Does this mean once we get to early June in game he will suddenly appear in the draft pool because he becomes eligible after the draft has started?

[jleddy]

Technically he should be eligible now if he's a junior. I see he joined the college team after their season ended in 2037, so you'd think he was a junior although he didn't appear in any games the last two seasons. It's very funky. I saw high school players with five years of experience get drafted last year...

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[jleddy]

Maybe 2039 and 2040 are signs of things to come when the American education system crumbles and amateur athletes are able to make money on their likeness. LET THIS BE A WARNING, WORLD!!

[handaspencer]

There is a few other guys that also fall into this category.

[RonCo]

College players start at age 20, so without looking too close, those are probably Juniors and above. High Schoolers are starting at 17, and from a very quick look appear to be juniors also. That could be wrong, too.

I do not think the draft pool will change, but I admit I'm not 100% sure.

The game is weird here. I think they'll work on it this coming version, but I've heard that before.

[RonCo]

Technically he should be eligible now if he's a junior. I see he joined the college team after their season ended in 2037, so you'd think he was a junior although he didn't appear in any games the last two seasons. It's very funky. I saw high school players with five years of experience get drafted last year...

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

There are weird things with the college reserved roster coming into play here. Several of a college's best prospects come through the system on their reserved rosters and never play a game. That leads some people to think they just get created to fill spots in the draft class--but I don't think that's how it works. As you noted above, it's a hard system to fiddle with because OOTP doesn't create or process players as if they are actually going to school.

[jleddy]

Also regarding the draft class, I wouldn't be disappointed if 100% of the 2040 class met their potential grades and this year was just an abnormally weak class. There have been really poor draft classes in the MLB's history looking back retrospectively (ie 2003 produced only seven All-Stars, with the best players being Nick Markakis and Adam Jones, both with career WAR of just north of 30), but surely Delmon Young, Rickie Weeks, Tim Stauffer and a few others at the top of that class were expected to be 65+ at the time of being drafted and just didn't pan out.

I guess it's just your preference of whether you want to see 70/75/80 potential prospects fall flat on their face (which I've seen looking at players in the BBA and seeing their post-draft ratings lump) or just have expectations lowered with a weaker draft class. Hopefully this is just a poor outlier class and future drafts will have more talent, as Kevin suggested.

[bcslouck]

(ie 2003 produced only seven All-Stars, with the best players being Nick Markakis and Adam Jones, both with career WAR of just north of 30)

I miss 2110 Eutaw Street.

[bcslouck]

Delmon Young

Also, sorry Tigers fans.. Delmon Young Game Winning Double vs Tigers - Game 2 ALDS

[jleddy]

I wonder what kind of reaction Brandon would have from the words "Jeffrey" and "Maier"...

[bcslouck]

I wonder what kind of reaction Brandon would have from the words "Jeffrey" and "Maier"...

Well.. its one of my first memories of watching baseball. So not good. Not good at all.

[usnspecialist]

I thought it was interesting that you said thealer could play SS. He played the position in the last 4 years, and well the results were not pretty....

2036: 31 G, -6.2 ZR
2037: 135 G, -12.6 ZR
2038: 78 G, -5.9 ZR
2039: 116 G, -10.5 ZR

[niles08]

I thought it was interesting that you said thealer could play SS. He played the position in the last 4 years, and well the results were not pretty....

2036: 31 G, -6.2 ZR
2037: 135 G, -12.6 ZR
2038: 78 G, -5.9 ZR
2039: 116 G, -10.5 ZR

Honestly his fielding ability , combined with range, arm, turn dp, and error all make me think he could play there. Even if not an entire season, he could play there longer than Rios.

[bschr682]

I get so excited when I see this post. Can't get enough BBA.

I'm okay with this draft class. I'd prefer the top 3-5 picks to be able to get a slightly better player than what's available this year.

I love Morales. You wont catch me voting against him.

I'm BIG on my Thealer deal. He provides me with some really interesting flexibility against opponents. Over the offseason he was asking for some ridiculous price, but dropped down to around 6 years/$36 mil last sim. I hopped right on that. That deal also (and of course I'm thinking this way) makes him valuable in trades. 10+ mil/year is always hard to swallow for any team. With all of this said, there's no doubt that Rios is the better hitter and if I could add 4 million more to each year to Thealer's deal and get Rios, I would probably take him instead.

I can't stand flies.

This is why people were questioning that Raider trade. Thealer is an absolute steal on that contract.