What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2

Podcasts and more!
User avatar
niles08
BBA GM
Posts: 2507
Joined: Wed Mar 29, 2017 9:15 pm
Has thanked: 168 times
Been thanked: 424 times

What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2

Post by niles08 » Wed Jul 17, 2019 1:07 pm

Hey all,

It's Wednesday. It's Brewing In The Brewster Day. Below is the latest episode.

In this week's episode we discuss:

Las Vegas & Madison on a tear.
Seattle losing 10 in a row
The Infamous Tobias Wulms YS9/DM Trade
Extensions for 3 major players
Thad Meyer
Where is Bobby Lynch going to end up?
Life Pro Tip!

In the podcast I mention Politos Pizza. If your ever in the Wisconsin/Minnesota area I recommend it highly. They have locations in:

Stevens Point, WI
La Crosse, WI
Wisconsin Rapids, WI
Mankato, MN
Oshkosh, WI
Rothschild, WI
Wausau, WI
St Cloud, MN

https://anchor.fm/bba/episodes/Whats-Br ... e-2-e4ld95
Image

usnspecialist
Ex-GM
Posts: 6652
Joined: Wed Jul 05, 2017 9:39 am
Location: Manama, Bahrain
Has thanked: 207 times
Been thanked: 776 times

Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2

Post by usnspecialist » Wed Jul 17, 2019 1:36 pm

Liked hearing your thoughts on the wie deal. Worth noting that he has actually his 8th year with the franchise as he had the 3 years in Havana as well. Really looking forward to seeing him crack the hunter/boerner stranglehold on the franchise all time leaderboards.
Randy Weigand

Havana Sugar Kings/San Fernando Bears: 32-50 (1608-1481)
Des Moines Kernels: 52-

League Champion- 34
JL Champion- 34
FL Champion- 36, 37
JL Southern- 34
FL Pacific- 37, 39
Wild Card- 33, 35, 36, 40, 43

Image

User avatar
jiminyhopkins
BBA GM
Posts: 3487
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2011 2:33 pm
Location: OH
Has thanked: 296 times
Been thanked: 911 times

Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2

Post by jiminyhopkins » Wed Jul 17, 2019 1:45 pm

Yeah. We need a RF.
GM, 2051 and 2053 JL 4TH WILDCARD Phoenix Talons (2029-??), BBA
CARETAKER GM, 2053 GBC CHAMPION Tokyo Pearls (2053 - 2056)
GM, THE GREATEST MINOR LEAGUE TEAM OF ALL TIME Toledo Liberty
Vic Caleca Team News Award Winner: 2051, 2054, 2057

User avatar
niles08
BBA GM
Posts: 2507
Joined: Wed Mar 29, 2017 9:15 pm
Has thanked: 168 times
Been thanked: 424 times

Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2

Post by niles08 » Wed Jul 17, 2019 2:04 pm

usnspecialist wrote:
Wed Jul 17, 2019 1:36 pm
Liked hearing your thoughts on the wie deal. Worth noting that he has actually his 8th year with the franchise as he had the 3 years in Havana as well. Really looking forward to seeing him crack the hunter/boerner stranglehold on the franchise all time leaderboards.
My fault. I forgot you moved from Havana. Not sure what I was thinking. I always like to figure $4,000,000 per WAR. I think that is sometimes high as I know some figure $3 or $3.5.
Image

User avatar
RonCo
GB: JL Frontier Division Director
Posts: 19815
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 1982 times
Been thanked: 2902 times

Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2

Post by RonCo » Wed Jul 17, 2019 2:18 pm

I figure that if you use all your $110M cap, and get your entire roster full of WAR at a rate of $4M/per, you wind up with 27.5 WAR. If replacement = 48 games (as Ted has often used), then you win 48+27.5 = 75.5 games.

Ultimately, of course, how much a team can afford to pay any single player for that WAR rate is dependent upon how many cheap producers they have.
GM: Bikini Krill
Nothing Matters But the Pacific Pennant
Roster

User avatar
niles08
BBA GM
Posts: 2507
Joined: Wed Mar 29, 2017 9:15 pm
Has thanked: 168 times
Been thanked: 424 times

Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2

Post by niles08 » Wed Jul 17, 2019 2:33 pm

RonCo wrote:
Wed Jul 17, 2019 2:18 pm
I figure that if you use all your $110M cap, and get your entire roster full of WAR at a rate of $4M/per, you wind up with 27.5 WAR. If replacement = 48 games (as Ted has often used), then you win 48+27.5 = 75.5 games.

Ultimately, of course, how much a team can afford to pay any single player for that WAR rate is dependent upon how many cheap producers they have.
Right, I sort of use it when evaluating players as a baseline. Typically I try to stay in the $3.5 Million per WAR in order to be around .500. As you mentioned though, I also figure that I have 5 guys that I can count on to get me a total of around 5 WAR(1.0 each) at $500,000 a piece so I try to figure that I have $107.5 million to go against 4 WAR which is 26.875 + replacement of 48 + 5 from the minimum guys = 80ish wins which is typically what we have hovered around most seasons.

If you figure 3.5 million per WAR , that's 31 wins + 5 from minimum + 48 = 84 wins.

I try to stay somewhere between 3.5 & 4 per WAR but I don't shake my head at giving out 4 million per WAR.
Image

User avatar
RonCo
GB: JL Frontier Division Director
Posts: 19815
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 1982 times
Been thanked: 2902 times

Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2

Post by RonCo » Wed Jul 17, 2019 2:36 pm

Yep.

Given that almost every decent team has players under their control that make min salary, you pair them up with the expensive guys and it all works out...of course sometimes you get waves of guys who have to get paid, and then you have to scramble a bit. :)

Such is the value of the salary cap.
GM: Bikini Krill
Nothing Matters But the Pacific Pennant
Roster

User avatar
niles08
BBA GM
Posts: 2507
Joined: Wed Mar 29, 2017 9:15 pm
Has thanked: 168 times
Been thanked: 424 times

Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2

Post by niles08 » Wed Jul 17, 2019 2:50 pm

RonCo wrote:
Wed Jul 17, 2019 2:36 pm
Yep.

Given that almost every decent team has players under their control that make min salary, you pair them up with the expensive guys and it all works out...of course sometimes you get waves of guys who have to get paid, and then you have to scramble a bit. :)

Such is the value of the salary cap.
On a side note, if you find the time, I would love to have a clear breakdown of what the average WAR for the BBA has in relations on team winning percentage and what the true breakdown each season on cost per WAR would be(I don't even know how to figure that out easily for the BBA as a whole). I would argue that it is higher than 48 games in the BBA for a replacement team. I do think that in MLB a replacement team would be at 48 games but just looking at my past few seasons I find this...

2038-75-87 Team WAR of 25.6 would be 49.5 wins.
2037-91-71 Team WAR of 33.3 would be 57.7 wins
2036-98-64 Team WAR of 45.8 would be 52.2 wins
2035-88-74 Team WAR of 37.9 would be 50.0 wins
2034-82-81 Team WAR of 22.5 would be 59.5 wins
2033-82-80 Team WAR of 32.2 would be 49.8 wins.
2032-69-93 Team WAR of 23.7 would be 45.3 wins,

Only one season would my team finish with less or at 48 wins if you take away my entire WAR. Quite a few seasons its in the upper 50's interestingly enough. Sure luck plays a part in that. I also realize we should take the Pythagorean or whatever its called to look at what my record should have been but some games are simply about luck any how.
Image

User avatar
RonCo
GB: JL Frontier Division Director
Posts: 19815
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 1982 times
Been thanked: 2902 times

Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2

Post by RonCo » Wed Jul 17, 2019 4:11 pm

I've always wondered exactly how "accurate" WAR is in OOTP, too. That said, I think "replacement" will change year over year. I'm sure there's some noise in there somewhere...still, when I take Omaha and Yellow Springs over the past decade I get:

Code: Select all

YS9 

	WAR	Wins	Rep
2038	50.8	99	48.2
2037	34.9	80	45.1
2036	56	101	45
2035	53.9	98	44.1
2034	52.7	98	45.3
2033	58.8	107	48.2
2032	48.9	95	46.1
2031	55.4	100	44.6
2030	49.1	85	35.9
2029	53.7	99	45.3

AVERAGE REPLACEMENT LEVEL = 44.8 wins

Code: Select all

OMA

	WAR	Wins	Rep
2038	25.6	75	49.4
2037	33.3	91	57.7
2036	45.8	98	52.2
2035	37.9	88	50.1
2034	22.5	82	59.5
2033	32.2	82	49.8
2032	23.7	69	45.3
2031	23.3	64	40.7
2030	8.3	56	47.7
2029	6.5	49	42.5

AVERAGE REPLACEMENT LEVEL - 49.5 Wins
Averaging the two replacement level values gets 47.8 Wins
GM: Bikini Krill
Nothing Matters But the Pacific Pennant
Roster

User avatar
RonCo
GB: JL Frontier Division Director
Posts: 19815
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 1982 times
Been thanked: 2902 times

Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2

Post by RonCo » Wed Jul 17, 2019 4:15 pm

In the above data, note 2034, wherein using Omaha's performance, you get replacement level of almost 60 games, but in Yellow Springs, replacement calculates to 45 games. This is a pretty big swing. I have never attempted to do this with major league data, though, so I have no idea if this is unusual or not.
GM: Bikini Krill
Nothing Matters But the Pacific Pennant
Roster

User avatar
Rubaboo
BBA GM
Posts: 2187
Joined: Tue May 27, 2014 9:09 pm
Location: Chippewa Falls, WI
Has thanked: 200 times
Been thanked: 320 times

Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2

Post by Rubaboo » Wed Jul 17, 2019 4:27 pm

Polito's is the best. Period.

The one in Point was always open after bar close. Ate there with considerable frequency during my early to mid 20s. If you have a chance to get into one, do it.
Fred Holmes
General Manager
Mexico City Aztecs - BBA

BBA Champs - 2052
JL Champs - 2027, 2052
JL MW Champs - 2022, 2023, 2024, 2027
JL Sun Belt Champs - 2035, 2036, 2038
JL Frontier Champs - 2051, 2052
JL Manager of the Year - 2023, 2024, 2026, 2052

bschr682
Ex-GM
Posts: 8038
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2010 11:24 am
Has thanked: 306 times
Been thanked: 383 times

Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2

Post by bschr682 » Wed Jul 17, 2019 5:02 pm

Rubaboo wrote:
Wed Jul 17, 2019 4:27 pm
Polito's is the best. Period.

The one in Point was always open after bar close. Ate there with considerable frequency during my early to mid 20s. If you have a chance to get into one, do it.
Good times...
GM Vancouver Mounties

jleddy
Ex-GM
Posts: 3216
Joined: Mon May 27, 2019 5:46 pm
Location: Long Beach, CA
Has thanked: 3377 times
Been thanked: 1174 times

Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2

Post by jleddy » Wed Jul 17, 2019 6:59 pm

Re: the Life Pro Tip...who the hell has leftover pizza to microwave?!?!

Great episode...loved hearing you breakdown the possible Lynch landing spots.
"My $#!? doesn't work in the playoffs." - Billy Beane Joe Lederer

User avatar
niles08
BBA GM
Posts: 2507
Joined: Wed Mar 29, 2017 9:15 pm
Has thanked: 168 times
Been thanked: 424 times

Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2

Post by niles08 » Thu Jul 18, 2019 7:59 am

jleddy wrote:
Wed Jul 17, 2019 6:59 pm
Re: the Life Pro Tip...who the hell has leftover pizza to microwave?!?!

Great episode...loved hearing you breakdown the possible Lynch landing spots.
I am sure I am horribly wrong and none of those teams are actually interested in him lol...

On a side note, the only reason we had leftover pizza is because Polito's large pizza is 20 inches. Also, the crust tip is simply because its one of the only places where the crust is fabulous and edible.
Image

User avatar
Rubaboo
BBA GM
Posts: 2187
Joined: Tue May 27, 2014 9:09 pm
Location: Chippewa Falls, WI
Has thanked: 200 times
Been thanked: 320 times

Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2

Post by Rubaboo » Thu Jul 18, 2019 8:27 am

I would've loved to lock Rocha up for 6 years last sim, but he's only at 4+years of service so the longest extension he's eligible for is 3 years. The extension has an AAV cheaper than his arb estimate for next season was so, despite the risk of him walking in 3 years, I'm still thrilled with it.
Fred Holmes
General Manager
Mexico City Aztecs - BBA

BBA Champs - 2052
JL Champs - 2027, 2052
JL MW Champs - 2022, 2023, 2024, 2027
JL Sun Belt Champs - 2035, 2036, 2038
JL Frontier Champs - 2051, 2052
JL Manager of the Year - 2023, 2024, 2026, 2052

User avatar
niles08
BBA GM
Posts: 2507
Joined: Wed Mar 29, 2017 9:15 pm
Has thanked: 168 times
Been thanked: 424 times

Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2

Post by niles08 » Thu Jul 18, 2019 8:51 am

Rubaboo wrote:
Thu Jul 18, 2019 8:27 am
I would've loved to lock Rocha up for 6 years last sim, but he's only at 4+years of service so the longest extension he's eligible for is 3 years. The extension has an AAV cheaper than his arb estimate for next season was so, despite the risk of him walking in 3 years, I'm still thrilled with it.
Damn, I wish I had paid more attention to that. Good signing. If you had waited until he crossed 5 years at the end of the season you could have signed him for longer, but also risked him asking for more which based on his current performance was a definite possibility.
Image

usnspecialist
Ex-GM
Posts: 6652
Joined: Wed Jul 05, 2017 9:39 am
Location: Manama, Bahrain
Has thanked: 207 times
Been thanked: 776 times

Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2

Post by usnspecialist » Thu Jul 18, 2019 9:03 am

Rubaboo wrote:
Thu Jul 18, 2019 8:27 am
I would've loved to lock Rocha up for 6 years last sim, but he's only at 4+years of service so the longest extension he's eligible for is 3 years. The extension has an AAV cheaper than his arb estimate for next season was so, despite the risk of him walking in 3 years, I'm still thrilled with it.
Ya that is always the tricky thing with that, plus you run into where he might not be willing to talk (which was the case with wie until the sim he signed).
Randy Weigand

Havana Sugar Kings/San Fernando Bears: 32-50 (1608-1481)
Des Moines Kernels: 52-

League Champion- 34
JL Champion- 34
FL Champion- 36, 37
JL Southern- 34
FL Pacific- 37, 39
Wild Card- 33, 35, 36, 40, 43

Image

User avatar
Rubaboo
BBA GM
Posts: 2187
Joined: Tue May 27, 2014 9:09 pm
Location: Chippewa Falls, WI
Has thanked: 200 times
Been thanked: 320 times

Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2

Post by Rubaboo » Thu Jul 18, 2019 10:43 am

At this point it was worth the risk of him walking after 3 more years to lock him up at essentially a cut rate rather than having to pay him $9M next season and market FA price the season after. I'll have something figured out either money wise or replacement wise by the time he's due for another contract.
Fred Holmes
General Manager
Mexico City Aztecs - BBA

BBA Champs - 2052
JL Champs - 2027, 2052
JL MW Champs - 2022, 2023, 2024, 2027
JL Sun Belt Champs - 2035, 2036, 2038
JL Frontier Champs - 2051, 2052
JL Manager of the Year - 2023, 2024, 2026, 2052

crobillard
Ex-GM
Posts: 2936
Joined: Wed Mar 05, 2014 7:38 am
Has thanked: 297 times
Been thanked: 240 times

Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2

Post by crobillard » Fri Jul 19, 2019 1:01 pm

This was fun to listen to. I enjoy the 10 minute segments. The Lynch destinations were fun to listen to on my end. It's been an interesting journey trying to deal Lynch. We'll see if things heat up more as more teams try to shore up their playoff hopes.

User avatar
RonCo
GB: JL Frontier Division Director
Posts: 19815
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 1982 times
Been thanked: 2902 times

Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2

Post by RonCo » Fri Jul 19, 2019 1:11 pm

The AFBI guys chatted on this, too. It will be interesting to see what kid of price Lynch actually gets.
GM: Bikini Krill
Nothing Matters But the Pacific Pennant
Roster

Post Reply Previous topicNext topic

Return to “Brewster Broadcasting Network”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests