What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2
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What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2
Hey all,
It's Wednesday. It's Brewing In The Brewster Day. Below is the latest episode.
In this week's episode we discuss:
Las Vegas & Madison on a tear.
Seattle losing 10 in a row
The Infamous Tobias Wulms YS9/DM Trade
Extensions for 3 major players
Thad Meyer
Where is Bobby Lynch going to end up?
Life Pro Tip!
In the podcast I mention Politos Pizza. If your ever in the Wisconsin/Minnesota area I recommend it highly. They have locations in:
Stevens Point, WI
La Crosse, WI
Wisconsin Rapids, WI
Mankato, MN
Oshkosh, WI
Rothschild, WI
Wausau, WI
St Cloud, MN
https://anchor.fm/bba/episodes/Whats-Br ... e-2-e4ld95
It's Wednesday. It's Brewing In The Brewster Day. Below is the latest episode.
In this week's episode we discuss:
Las Vegas & Madison on a tear.
Seattle losing 10 in a row
The Infamous Tobias Wulms YS9/DM Trade
Extensions for 3 major players
Thad Meyer
Where is Bobby Lynch going to end up?
Life Pro Tip!
In the podcast I mention Politos Pizza. If your ever in the Wisconsin/Minnesota area I recommend it highly. They have locations in:
Stevens Point, WI
La Crosse, WI
Wisconsin Rapids, WI
Mankato, MN
Oshkosh, WI
Rothschild, WI
Wausau, WI
St Cloud, MN
https://anchor.fm/bba/episodes/Whats-Br ... e-2-e4ld95
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Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2
Liked hearing your thoughts on the wie deal. Worth noting that he has actually his 8th year with the franchise as he had the 3 years in Havana as well. Really looking forward to seeing him crack the hunter/boerner stranglehold on the franchise all time leaderboards.
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Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2
Yeah. We need a RF.
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Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2
My fault. I forgot you moved from Havana. Not sure what I was thinking. I always like to figure $4,000,000 per WAR. I think that is sometimes high as I know some figure $3 or $3.5.usnspecialist wrote: ↑Wed Jul 17, 2019 1:36 pmLiked hearing your thoughts on the wie deal. Worth noting that he has actually his 8th year with the franchise as he had the 3 years in Havana as well. Really looking forward to seeing him crack the hunter/boerner stranglehold on the franchise all time leaderboards.
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Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2
I figure that if you use all your $110M cap, and get your entire roster full of WAR at a rate of $4M/per, you wind up with 27.5 WAR. If replacement = 48 games (as Ted has often used), then you win 48+27.5 = 75.5 games.
Ultimately, of course, how much a team can afford to pay any single player for that WAR rate is dependent upon how many cheap producers they have.
Ultimately, of course, how much a team can afford to pay any single player for that WAR rate is dependent upon how many cheap producers they have.
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Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2
Right, I sort of use it when evaluating players as a baseline. Typically I try to stay in the $3.5 Million per WAR in order to be around .500. As you mentioned though, I also figure that I have 5 guys that I can count on to get me a total of around 5 WAR(1.0 each) at $500,000 a piece so I try to figure that I have $107.5 million to go against 4 WAR which is 26.875 + replacement of 48 + 5 from the minimum guys = 80ish wins which is typically what we have hovered around most seasons.RonCo wrote: ↑Wed Jul 17, 2019 2:18 pmI figure that if you use all your $110M cap, and get your entire roster full of WAR at a rate of $4M/per, you wind up with 27.5 WAR. If replacement = 48 games (as Ted has often used), then you win 48+27.5 = 75.5 games.
Ultimately, of course, how much a team can afford to pay any single player for that WAR rate is dependent upon how many cheap producers they have.
If you figure 3.5 million per WAR , that's 31 wins + 5 from minimum + 48 = 84 wins.
I try to stay somewhere between 3.5 & 4 per WAR but I don't shake my head at giving out 4 million per WAR.
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Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2
Yep.
Given that almost every decent team has players under their control that make min salary, you pair them up with the expensive guys and it all works out...of course sometimes you get waves of guys who have to get paid, and then you have to scramble a bit.
Such is the value of the salary cap.
Given that almost every decent team has players under their control that make min salary, you pair them up with the expensive guys and it all works out...of course sometimes you get waves of guys who have to get paid, and then you have to scramble a bit.
Such is the value of the salary cap.
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Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2
On a side note, if you find the time, I would love to have a clear breakdown of what the average WAR for the BBA has in relations on team winning percentage and what the true breakdown each season on cost per WAR would be(I don't even know how to figure that out easily for the BBA as a whole). I would argue that it is higher than 48 games in the BBA for a replacement team. I do think that in MLB a replacement team would be at 48 games but just looking at my past few seasons I find this...RonCo wrote: ↑Wed Jul 17, 2019 2:36 pmYep.
Given that almost every decent team has players under their control that make min salary, you pair them up with the expensive guys and it all works out...of course sometimes you get waves of guys who have to get paid, and then you have to scramble a bit.
Such is the value of the salary cap.
2038-75-87 Team WAR of 25.6 would be 49.5 wins.
2037-91-71 Team WAR of 33.3 would be 57.7 wins
2036-98-64 Team WAR of 45.8 would be 52.2 wins
2035-88-74 Team WAR of 37.9 would be 50.0 wins
2034-82-81 Team WAR of 22.5 would be 59.5 wins
2033-82-80 Team WAR of 32.2 would be 49.8 wins.
2032-69-93 Team WAR of 23.7 would be 45.3 wins,
Only one season would my team finish with less or at 48 wins if you take away my entire WAR. Quite a few seasons its in the upper 50's interestingly enough. Sure luck plays a part in that. I also realize we should take the Pythagorean or whatever its called to look at what my record should have been but some games are simply about luck any how.
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Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2
I've always wondered exactly how "accurate" WAR is in OOTP, too. That said, I think "replacement" will change year over year. I'm sure there's some noise in there somewhere...still, when I take Omaha and Yellow Springs over the past decade I get:
Averaging the two replacement level values gets 47.8 Wins
Code: Select all
YS9
WAR Wins Rep
2038 50.8 99 48.2
2037 34.9 80 45.1
2036 56 101 45
2035 53.9 98 44.1
2034 52.7 98 45.3
2033 58.8 107 48.2
2032 48.9 95 46.1
2031 55.4 100 44.6
2030 49.1 85 35.9
2029 53.7 99 45.3
AVERAGE REPLACEMENT LEVEL = 44.8 wins
Code: Select all
OMA
WAR Wins Rep
2038 25.6 75 49.4
2037 33.3 91 57.7
2036 45.8 98 52.2
2035 37.9 88 50.1
2034 22.5 82 59.5
2033 32.2 82 49.8
2032 23.7 69 45.3
2031 23.3 64 40.7
2030 8.3 56 47.7
2029 6.5 49 42.5
AVERAGE REPLACEMENT LEVEL - 49.5 Wins
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Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2
In the above data, note 2034, wherein using Omaha's performance, you get replacement level of almost 60 games, but in Yellow Springs, replacement calculates to 45 games. This is a pretty big swing. I have never attempted to do this with major league data, though, so I have no idea if this is unusual or not.
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Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2
Polito's is the best. Period.
The one in Point was always open after bar close. Ate there with considerable frequency during my early to mid 20s. If you have a chance to get into one, do it.
The one in Point was always open after bar close. Ate there with considerable frequency during my early to mid 20s. If you have a chance to get into one, do it.
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Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2
Re: the Life Pro Tip...who the hell has leftover pizza to microwave?!?!
Great episode...loved hearing you breakdown the possible Lynch landing spots.
Great episode...loved hearing you breakdown the possible Lynch landing spots.
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Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2
I am sure I am horribly wrong and none of those teams are actually interested in him lol...
On a side note, the only reason we had leftover pizza is because Polito's large pizza is 20 inches. Also, the crust tip is simply because its one of the only places where the crust is fabulous and edible.
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Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2
I would've loved to lock Rocha up for 6 years last sim, but he's only at 4+years of service so the longest extension he's eligible for is 3 years. The extension has an AAV cheaper than his arb estimate for next season was so, despite the risk of him walking in 3 years, I'm still thrilled with it.
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Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2
Damn, I wish I had paid more attention to that. Good signing. If you had waited until he crossed 5 years at the end of the season you could have signed him for longer, but also risked him asking for more which based on his current performance was a definite possibility.Rubaboo wrote: ↑Thu Jul 18, 2019 8:27 amI would've loved to lock Rocha up for 6 years last sim, but he's only at 4+years of service so the longest extension he's eligible for is 3 years. The extension has an AAV cheaper than his arb estimate for next season was so, despite the risk of him walking in 3 years, I'm still thrilled with it.
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Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2
Ya that is always the tricky thing with that, plus you run into where he might not be willing to talk (which was the case with wie until the sim he signed).Rubaboo wrote: ↑Thu Jul 18, 2019 8:27 amI would've loved to lock Rocha up for 6 years last sim, but he's only at 4+years of service so the longest extension he's eligible for is 3 years. The extension has an AAV cheaper than his arb estimate for next season was so, despite the risk of him walking in 3 years, I'm still thrilled with it.
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Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2
At this point it was worth the risk of him walking after 3 more years to lock him up at essentially a cut rate rather than having to pay him $9M next season and market FA price the season after. I'll have something figured out either money wise or replacement wise by the time he's due for another contract.
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Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2
This was fun to listen to. I enjoy the 10 minute segments. The Lynch destinations were fun to listen to on my end. It's been an interesting journey trying to deal Lynch. We'll see if things heat up more as more teams try to shore up their playoff hopes.
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Re: What's Brewing In The Brewster? Episode 2
The AFBI guys chatted on this, too. It will be interesting to see what kid of price Lynch actually gets.
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