2035 Milestones and such, some HOF Discussion

[Ted]

Stephen Lane, Matt Rectenwald, and Ted Schmidt discuss various player milestones and their implications for future marks and Hall of fame consideration.

Topics include recent milestones by Bunk Moreland and Dillon Young, the impending 3000 hit mark for Brian Clough and Juan Escobar, and the next crop of hitters to take a run at 3000.

By default, but rightly so, the discussion turns into a celebration of Frank Thomas III's career and to a lesser extend that of Antonio Sanchez. We of course spend some time on my favorite player, Ricardo Diaz and his chances of becoming the all time strikeout leader (not named Steve Nebraska).

The pitching discussion also include a great deal about the relative merits of wins and saves, and various thresholds of each before we move into the all time rankings, which prompts some notice of the type of era we are playing in, and how it differs from the last decade.

It is difficult to talk about milestones without getting into Hall of Fame discussions, and we'll inspect the curious case of Zebediah "Yahoo" Williams before detouring into some of the more ignominious ways a player can climb the all time leader-boards.

Finally we degenerate into a lambasting of previous hall of fame votes and the biases that have lead to an unbalanced and inconsistent hall of fame.

[recte44]

This was a fun one. Hope to do more “history” slanted podcasts.

[usnspecialist]

listening to this (just got to the dog yapping at 31 minutes, which definitely set off my dog), and im really enjoying it. I am not sure that I have been around long enough to contribute meaningfully to these sort of pods, but man I love listening to them.

[Ted]

Sorry about the dogs. Couldn't figure out how to edit them out without killing human speech. I got some, but there's too much overlap both in terms of physical timing and frequency. (I'm sure someone better than me with editing could have done it)

[usnspecialist]

that was a great listen, I really enjoy learning about some of the historical parts of the league. I look forward to the days when I can see someone go on the HOF ballot and go "hey he spent a lot of his career with me" and then eventually "hey I remember drafting that guy".

[Lane]

Sorry about my dogs!

[RonCo]

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source= ... ViuqnEVkpX

[scottsdale_joe]

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source= ... ViuqnEVkpX

Now that might be the best link anyone has ever sent me to in the history of the internet.
Hugely good read.

[RonCo]

It's one of my favorite pieces by a ridiculously good baseball writer.

[RonCo]

What is the actual method we use to calculate the inductees now? I know it's by points, but I don't really understand how the points are calculated and the thresholds set. Nor do I know how long guys are on the ballot or how they get on and all that stuff.

[recte44]

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source= ... ViuqnEVkpX

Now that might be the best link anyone has ever sent me to in the history of the internet.
Hugely good read.

Almost got it right, until he took Henry Aaron out

[RonCo]

Another great Hall of Fame article from Posnanski: http://joeposnanski.com/rabbit-hole-kle ... ry-walker/

[RonCo]

The conversation about the assumption that "eye" is increasing made me wonder...I don't know that this is true. So I pulled the data from all BBA players.

Average Eye Rating = 5.47
Standard Deviation = 1.65

(So 68% of ratings should be between 3.8-7.1)

A histogram of Eye Ratings:

Code: Select all

EYE	#
2	3
3	47
4	89
5	94
6	113
7	45
8	31
9	22
10	4
All	448

Without knowing where "eye" was before, there's nothing to be made of this...but it feels unlikely that we're seeing some big glut of "eye" in our hitters.

That said, our walk rate has increased the past four seasons (around .084/PA...which is not as high as the 2000-2010s, but more than the 2020s). My guess is that this is due to pitcher Control dropping more than due to hitter eye increasing. You've now got a guy like Randy in the league who isn't afraid to throw starters with horrific control for many innings. I've done the same with Tim Oliver. If I get a chance I'll pull the CON Histograms later today.

Anyway...it just doesn't feel like we're seeing a bloat in hitter Eye from the above.

[RonCo]

CON Average: 6.95
Standard Deviation: 1.44

68% of ratings between 5.51-8.39

Historgam:

Code: Select all

CON	#
1	1
3	3
4	16
5	42
6	93
7	103
8	100
9	51
10	6
11	1
All	416

Hmmm...again, no idea how this has changed from the past.

[bschr682]

Ok so I get a knock for liking a small hall, you spend the first part of the HOF discussion saying we don't have enough people in and then you spend the whole last part of this blasting people who are already in and shouldn't be. I voted for nearly all of the guys you said should have made it and didn't while also not voting for and sometimes actively attacking some of the guys that got in that shouldn't have.

So tell me why I got picked on? Because I don't think Boogie is a HOF? 3B is not a defensive position. In OOTP leagues if you want to be a HOF at 3B, 1B, DH, LF or RF you better bring some serious counting stats. SS, 2B, CF and C deserve way more love than they get.

This is why I don't fucking vote for things anymore. And yes for gods sake Tipper should be in.

[Ted]

Ok so I get a knock for liking a small hall, you spend the first part of the HOF discussion saying we don't have enough people in and then you spend the whole last part of this blasting people who are already in and shouldn't be. I voted for nearly all of the guys you said should have made it and didn't while also not voting for and sometimes actively attacking some of the guys that got in that shouldn't have.

So tell me why I got picked on? Because I don't think Boogie is a HOF? 3B is not a defensive position. In OOTP leagues if you want to be a HOF at 3B, 1B, DH, LF or RF you better bring some serious counting stats. SS, 2B, CF and C deserve way more love than they get.

This is why I don't fucking vote for things anymore. And yes for gods sake Tipper should be in.

It was never the purpose to single you out. Sorry. I have always had the impression that you are one of the more vocal people about the Hall being too big and feeling the whole process is flawed. Anyway, apologies for the negative tone, or conveying an impression that is wrong.

Regarding 3B being an offensive position in the same vein as 1B or DH I simply can't agree with this. It may not be as bad as SS or 2B, but third base in this league is historically much weaker offensively than those power positions. It does seem to be similar to LR and RF. Boogie being 3rd all time among 3B in WAR, and right around 5th or so in HR, total bases, hits, and the like more or less demonstrates this. His rate based stats ARE more in the 10-12 range among 3rd basemen all time, which if were were going by that alone, would make him borderline for a league that has seen 60 years of play. A good deal of his value probably comes from longevity and the exceptionally fine defense for the first two thirds or his career, but when you combine those factors with counting stats that have him around 5th all time, I think he has an exceptionally strong case. Again, the fact that his 340 odd homers is 4TH! all time among third baseman shows that the offensive quality is lower there. He would be outside the top ten at 1B, and actually is right about the same compared to LF and RF.

[scottsdale_joe]

So I'm chipping in for no reason other than I'm not ready for bed.
I am old school stats but I have adjusted to accept WAR and WHIP and maybe a few others.
Re: HOF
You get in with your bat over a long period. Period.
No five year flashes.
Defense helps and, imho, is just as important at any position be it SS or 3B or RF.
Speed helps too.
Longevity helps.
Intangibles can be brought into the discussion but rarely matter.
Tt's BA, HRs, WAR etc (or W, ERA, Ks, etc) that get you in the HOF.
The only position that gets some leeway, still imho, is catcher, solely because it is such a demanding physical position to play like no other.

I know I am in the minority these days, but I'm old and often cantankerous.
Still, you can beat me up for it. It has no negative effect on me.
I am what I am and I know it. And I know I'm a minority opinion 90% of the time.

Not sure any of this is àpropos of anything, but like I said, I'm not ready for bed.
And the thread got me thinking.
Now maybe I am.
Ready for bed, that is.

Again, btw, Brett. Do you remember a trade we made back when you CAL GM?
Matt Brunson, a young infielder that you got in trade from Madison, for Steve Taub, a prospect SP.
Brunson became the defensive glue infielder for Vancouver for 12-13 years. He was a critical piece.
Taub ended up winning 167 game including 114 for CAL (with one 20 win season, I think) before he moved on.
It always struck as the best trade that helped both teams ever.

And now I AM ready to sleep.
Cheers BBA!

[bschr682]

Again, btw, Brett. Do you remember a trade we made back when you CAL GM?
Matt Brunson, a young infielder that you got in trade from Madison, for Steve Taub, a prospect SP.
Brunson became the defensive glue infielder for Vancouver for 12-13 years. He was a critical piece.
Taub ended up winning 167 game including 114 for CAL (with one 20 win season, I think) before he moved on.
It always struck as the best trade that helped both teams ever.

And now I AM ready to sleep.
Cheers BBA!

Oh I remember. The Bandit is easily one of my all time favorites. Its been my goal for awhile now to get his son from Hawaii...

[bschr682]

Ok so I get a knock for liking a small hall, you spend the first part of the HOF discussion saying we don't have enough people in and then you spend the whole last part of this blasting people who are already in and shouldn't be. I voted for nearly all of the guys you said should have made it and didn't while also not voting for and sometimes actively attacking some of the guys that got in that shouldn't have.

So tell me why I got picked on? Because I don't think Boogie is a HOF? 3B is not a defensive position. In OOTP leagues if you want to be a HOF at 3B, 1B, DH, LF or RF you better bring some serious counting stats. SS, 2B, CF and C deserve way more love than they get.

This is why I don't fucking vote for things anymore. And yes for gods sake Tipper should be in.

It was never the purpose to single you out. Sorry. I have always had the impression that you are one of the more vocal people about the Hall being too big and feeling the whole process is flawed. Anyway, apologies for the negative tone, or conveying an impression that is wrong.

Regarding 3B being an offensive position in the same vein as 1B or DH I simply can't agree with this. It may not be as bad as SS or 2B, but third base in this league is historically much weaker offensively than those power positions. It does seem to be similar to LR and RF. Boogie being 3rd all time among 3B in WAR, and right around 5th or so in HR, total bases, hits, and the like more or less demonstrates this. His rate based stats ARE more in the 10-12 range among 3rd basemen all time, which if were were going by that alone, would make him borderline for a league that has seen 60 years of play. A good deal of his value probably comes from longevity and the exceptionally fine defense for the first two thirds or his career, but when you combine those factors with counting stats that have him around 5th all time, I think he has an exceptionally strong case. Again, the fact that his 340 odd homers is 4TH! all time among third baseman shows that the offensive quality is lower there. He would be outside the top ten at 1B, and actually is right about the same compared to LF and RF.

Terrible last few weeks at work so I’m admittedly taking this personally and shouldn’t. I grant you that and that part isn’t the big deal.

The part that’s rubbing me the wrong way is that you singled out 1 person that, in my opinion anyway, votes correctly. Correctly isn’t the right word but I’m drawing a blank here. The point is if you are gonna take pot shots at people, maybe fire them at the people that don’t vote for Tipper, Mitrani, etc. Not the people who try to take this seriously.

I think that’s the real problem with the HOF. Not enough people care or have the time to care so our current voting system just doesn’t really do it right.

[agrudez]

You vote correctly, it's everyone else that's the problem. We should just let Brett hand pick the Hall by himself.