A Few Beers In 2034.1

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Re: A Few Beers In Episode 1

Post by ae37jr » Wed Apr 18, 2018 9:54 am

All you need to do is pregame before hand. This way the podcast is a listenable amount of time, yet you guys are still drunk enough to make it fun.

I actually listened to the whole thing on Monday. It was the perfect storm though. I had the day off, the house to myself, and was planning on doing some cleaning anyway. So I just put the podcast through the whole house speakers and went about my business. I did however stop countless times to check the game about things you were talking about. I doubt I'd listen to 4 hours again.

Really my whole motivation to finish was.... "Oh man, I can't wait till they get to the part where they rip Brooklyn". Sadly, that never really happened outside of a couple of one off comments about having a 3 man rotation in a week I had 3 off days and having Jonathan Archer in A-ball last years. The truth about that is I had a talented team with a lot of bad apples on it and my team chemistry was a mess. I figured what better leader to sort out the locker room and help my prospects develop then Archer.

And I've been trying to remember who the Brooklyn zombie player was. I knew exactly who you were talkjng about but am at loss for who he is. I don't think he was around very long.
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Re: A Few Beers In Episode 1

Post by bschr682 » Wed Apr 18, 2018 6:23 pm

RonCo wrote:Still, it was worth the full listen. Lots of fun. I learned some thing that aren't actually quite true, too. :)
What?
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Re: A Few Beers In Episode 1

Post by RonCo » Wed Apr 18, 2018 6:30 pm

An example, I think...someone said Mons Raider's success is causing other players to be worse. Pretty sure that's not right, but I admit I could be wrong, too...so, shrug.
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Re: A Few Beers In Episode 1

Post by bschr682 » Wed Apr 18, 2018 6:42 pm

I said that and it’s true. Not just raider though. The game engine is only going to allow the number of stolen bases to get so high. So because raider and a few others are sooooo much better on the basepaths than other guys who have ratings that top base stealers of yester year had. My point is that a guy with 8 or 9 steal ability is less successful than he would normally be because there are just so many guys with 10 or 11.
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Re: A Few Beers In Episode 1

Post by RonCo » Wed Apr 18, 2018 6:44 pm

Yeah, I don't think that's true.
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Re: A Few Beers In Episode 1

Post by bschr682 » Wed Apr 18, 2018 8:01 pm

Just to be clear I’m talking SB success rate. The premise being a guy with 9 steal in our league is less successful than a guy with 9 steal in a league with ratings that aren’t inflated like ours. Should be easy to test this weekend.
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Re: A Few Beers In Episode 1

Post by RonCo » Thu Apr 19, 2018 10:57 am

bschr682 wrote:Just to be clear I’m talking SB success rate. The premise being a guy with 9 steal in our league is less successful than a guy with 9 steal in a league with ratings that aren’t inflated like ours. Should be easy to test this weekend.
This is just one season of data (er, uh, two...) and it's v19 rather than v18, so maybe there's a change, but here's a quick study.

I made a test league of 8 teams in two divisions. Set the rosters to not be able to be changed, turned development, injuries, and suspensions off, and played with the Speed and Steal ratings. (Default SBA and SB% in League Totals)

Year 1: All players set to 100 speed, 100 steal.
Year 2: Set all players on two teams to 200 speed, 200 steal.

Year 1 Results:
----------------
Total SBA: 604 (375 SB, 62.1% success rate)

Year 2 Results:
---------------
Total SBA: 1226 (1019 SB, 83.1%)

200/200 Runners: 809/903 SB/SBA = 89.6% Success
100/100 Runners: 210/323 SB/SBA = 65.0%

So, yes, adding very fast runners increased the number of SBA and percentage of success across the league. But it did not change the success rate of those who were slower. If anything, it increased things a bit...but given the sample size, it's seriously in the zone of random noise.

The OOTP results engine does not clamp anything. That's it's beauty and its confounding nature. Stats get created by the players in the league, using the league totals as this weird form of a gravity well that is generally best seen as being maintained by the old Bill James Log5 methods. Given this result, I remain of a mind that says Mons Raider's success is not doing anything to the rest of the league--though perhaps the other teams are stealing a little less often. One season is too small to say for sure.

As always, though, I remain open to learning...so if you do test anything, I'd love to see it--especially if it disproves my view.
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Re: A Few Beers In Episode 1

Post by Fat Nige » Thu Apr 26, 2018 6:18 am

RonCo wrote:Best moment of the podcast ... "I don't care about Louisville."
:orly:

Seriously, a great listen. Filled up my entire morning and I consider that time well spent. Question though as I continue my learning quest - “what are the intangible ratings you speak of”?
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Re: A Few Beers In Episode 1

Post by bschr682 » Thu Apr 26, 2018 6:57 am

Personality ratings. Work ethic and intelligence in particular. How much of an effect they have who knows but its nice when those ratings are good.
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Re: A Few Beers In Episode 1

Post by Fat Nige » Thu Apr 26, 2018 7:38 am

Thanks :hi5:
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